The lightning thing isn't so random. Some places get hit more than others, I sometimes use a lightning prediction programme to advise people on those odds and whether they'll need a conductor installed. Now if you live and work outdoors in an area prone to high numbers of strikes each year obviously your chances are higher.
In this case by being a cafe member you increased your chances of winning the mandolin by being aware the competition was on. By entering the competition you've gone out to play golf in the storm beside the flag-pole.
The rest depends on where the bolt strikes.
Thankfully whether you win one comp has no bearing on your odds for the next. But if enough competitions are run, then the possibility of someone winning more then one goes right up.
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