Loar prices falling?

[f5loar]

It seems Gruhn's has slipped in a really nice '23 Loar F5 with a modest price of $205,000. Considering this is a really nice one and probably as nice as his last one at $225,000 are Loar prices coming down from it's peak? I see 1960 Les Pauls have surpased Loar prices. Here is what Gruhn has to say on it's inventory listings:
1923, EXF, spectacular tiger striped maple back, signed by Lloyd Loar Feb 26, 1923, an exceptionally fine sounding instrument, OHC......$205000
Anybody know the serial number of this one? I can't post photos so anyone knows how it would be nice to post the front and back shot here for our records.

[Bill Snyder]

[Glassweb]

I couldn't find it on his list, but I believe this is Loar # 72211. I've seen it and played it and it's superb and all original. For anyone who wants the ultimate, untouched 23' F5... well, you won't find better than this! I don't think Loar prices are falling... the other recent Loar sales at higher prices were for July 9th mandolins - and who knows what they actually went for.

[Fretbear]

Minty......

[mandroid]

no more sub prime Loar mortgage loans?

[danb]

Confirmed, it's 72211. It's a very nice one, has a wonderful even midrange tone. I've played it a couple times. Also very interesting provenance with it, it was owned by a music store owner who died in an automobile crash soon after purchasing it. Unusual quartered maple back with a lot of figure too.

[danb]

Another point.. as far as I know a sidebound July 9 (usually considered the most sought after date due to the Monroe association!) was the only Loar I've seen listed at $225k.

Shayne, you might be confusing this one with another? I spoke to the owner and this is not a "quick sale" price by any means, I think that's right on target.

[kudzugypsy]

well, i would say the true answer to this question is in how FAST this one sells at this "priced for quick sell" figure. there have been some PREMIUM loars up for sale over the last 6 months - no one has really come forth with any details of those sales. we know some were in the $225K range, but did they sell, and if so, did they get that. most buyers/sellers wont disclose that info.

lets just say that the vintage market is not moving much inventory right now - the recent skinner auction wasnt anything to sooth the market - really weak prices and many didnt even hit reserves.

hey, you've had a $100k run up in loar prices over the last 5 years...take the money and run.

[Bruce Clausen]

When a commodity is denominated in US dollars, its price rises as the US dollar falls. Is this a genuine increase? Only if you're shopping with US dollars. I've just noticed that for a Canadian shopper like me an instrument offered at $225000 US now costs about the same as one offered at $140000 US a few years ago. The situation would be similar for pounds, Swiss francs, euros, yen, Australian dollars, etc.

BC

[kudzugypsy]

thats true BC - one factor seldom realized - that is what happened in the late 80's when the japanese were buying up every old martin and strat they could find - with exchange rates figured in, they were buying at a 40% discount..guess what, SAME deal now, but this foreign money aint chasing the price. right now, the euro is 1.37 to the dollar, and the pound is even higher - that means, dan in England can buy this Loar for around 65¢ on the dollar. you would think the foreign money would be coming in to capture these deals, but they arent. if you figure how MUCH the dollar has slid over the last 2 years...well, loars have already started falling in value. its just like oil - everyone is talking about oil being over $80 a barrel - well its simple - it takes more dollars to buy the same barrel as the dollar falls, the price SHOULD rise...

[Fretbear]

Check out the difference between the size of the F-holes on the one above and #73677 over at Tony's...both '23's...
#73677

[markishandsome]

Maybe the seller wants the regular working man to have a chance to own a Loar, hence the bargain basement pricing.

I think fluctuations on the order of 10% are to be expected in a market with only 5-10 data points per year.

[Brady Smith]

Maybe the seller wants the regular working man to have a chance to own a Loar, hence the bargain basement pricing.

lol...a workin man couldn't afford the sales tax on that.

[Glassweb]

The purchasing or selling of a valuable instrument such as a Loar F5 is serious business these days. There are many factors that go into the pricing of such instruments and all financial matters are usually held in strict confidence between the seller, the agent (if there is one) and the purchaser. Any unknowledgeable speculation or comments can be detrimental to the sale and/or reputation of the instrument, no matter how pristine and original it may be. So as someone who has sold upper-end mandolins and artwork in a variety of settings over the years, I can only offer this advice to anyone that is not directly involved in the sale... mind your own business. Sorry if I've offended anyone with this rather blunt statement, but that's the way I see it.

[Mandorlando]

I would think that those wishing their sales to be confidential would take plenty of precaution to make sure they remained so. It doesn't seem that reporting on prices, whether speculative or substantiated, will have any real impact on the sale of one of these instruments. A buyer in this price range will have done his homework on the mandolin (or should have) and a couple comments on a message board aren't going to damage the sale.

[danb]

Mike, I think what raised glassweb's hackles was the speculation that this is reduced for quick sale. According to the owner, that is not the case. We're not sure where that came from.

I have this from the owner:

I am in no hurry to sell.

$205k is the right range for this mandolin. A july 9 sidebound was the highest asking price I know of at $225k. I do not know the actual sale price, but $205k for this signature date in wonderful condition is consistent with what has been going on in the market of late.

[kudzugypsy]

honestly, one would think that a basiclly NOS unplayed early 23 Loar would command a premium price - i mean, this is A+++ collector grade here - selling it at a 10% discount to a july 9 (dan corrected my early am math on this, thanks) is a little confusing. there is NO doubt that the market is soft now, the 4 original pre-war flatheads that gruhn had were just returned to the owner (a famous japanese collector) because there were no offers on them and he just took them back. (much to gruhns annoyance i've heard) GG's recent newsletter seems to be a sobering pep rally for the recent #falling interest in high end instruments as investments.

i think that if this mando had been listed at this time last year, i could see it pushing the new high of $250K. it seemed each new loar that came up for sale was priced $25K higher than the last ADVERTISED sale price (we dont know what actual sale figures were, as stated, that is between the buyer & seller) but it seemed to go $150 - $175 - $200 - $225K over the last 2-3 years.

imo, from the peanut gallery also, is that with ANY collectible / investment, you are paying TODAY, a FUTURE price for the item. what that means is that a premium is factored into the price regarding future value. when the prices are rising, the premium is higher. if I think in 3-5 years, the item is going to appreciate, i will GLADLY pay the premium - however, if there is doubt, i wont pay the premium. this has clearly been evident in the vintage market over the last 2-3 years.

[mythicfish]

Soy beans, pork bellies, cockles and mussels ... alive, alive-o.

Curt

[danb]

selling it at a 20% discount to a july 9 is a little confusing.

205/225 = ~9.1%

[danb]

Heh, they all seem underpriced about 2 weeks after the sale is completed. I'm an armchair quarterback here though, just speaking from being a guy who loves to look at them but has never owned one

Shayne, I didn't get an email from you outlining what you are suggesting? I know it at IBMA and now Gruhns. Did you speak to the owner? Please don't "out" him if you did, but we've spoken and he has no idea where this comment of reduced for quick sale comes from.

I've always figured that if the price is right on the ball for what the market will bear, it will sell.. too high is "fishing", too low and it vanishes in 30 seconds.

This particular example is probably one of the least played, cleanest condition ones that exists. It was owned by a music teacher/dealer who passed away in a car accident shortly after the purchase. It was "under the bed" for some years and passed to it's current owner, and it has been very carefully cared for and matches the unspeakably clean condition you see in the pictures at Gruhn and in the archive. The tone is archetypal Loar as well, everything works like butter and just draws you in to mandolin tunnel vision.

A non-july 9 priced around 10% below a July 9 in similar condition is what I've seen in the market before, this is all priced very normally etc. Nothing to see here, move along

[mandopete]

So did it sell?

[Links]

I agree with a number of the last few posters, both regarding the "privacy" of the sale (it ain't private by a long shot - at least up 'til now) and the softness of the market. Last year, I bet this mandolin would have never hit the public "for sale" list, as I am quite sure that GG has a list of folks to call when something like this comes in. He presently has a pristine original flathead RB-75 that everyone seems to agree is a "steal" at 150K, but no buyers. Kudzu's also correct about the original TB top tension banjos that I also thought were pretty reasonably priced. He may have gotten a few "bites" and a lot of tire kickers (whom George loves), but apparently no serious offers.

I own a few higher end instruments, including an original prewar flathead Mastertone, so I hate to see the market go soft as much as anyone, but it is hard to dispute recent events. Recently (6 months ago) an original prewar PB-6 was bid up to 38K on Ebay and did not meet reserve. In the past couple of weeks it was put up again and could not get a bid at 30k. Anecdotal, yes, but there seems to be a pattern.

What I have seen in the past is that owners of these fine instruments will not keep reducing them until they sell, but rather just stick them in their closets until the market comes back.

[Timbofood]

Well, heaven knows these things are not getting any newer. If it does not sell, it will hopefully be taken good care of until such time as my financial situation improves and I can start taking care of it.

[f5loar]

Let's put another small hard to see crack in it and get it down to $185K! If you want to talk about prices on Loars let's go back and talk again about the "Buy It Now for $675,000" '24 Fern Loar with Virzi! We all know who this is selling it yet for the past 6 months it continues to be listed on ebay and last I heard you do pay each time you list it even if not sold. This particular Loar is a great buy at $205K no matter how you come up with the money.
Gruhn does take trades so I'm sure if I took in a pickup load of 50's D28s and a few prewar Flatheads I could walk out with the Loar and you have no idea how much I paid for the Loar. I do agree that 5 years ago a Loar of this statue would never have made it to the public listings at Gruhns. I would have been sold privately and the price would only be known between the buyer and Gruhns.
PS: This one sold on Skinner a few years ago for considerably less money.

[mandolooter]

I think I'll buy it and not tell anyone but my ex-wife.