What price guide to use?

[Talon]

What price guide is considered the standard, for used instruments and their market value?

[TenorClef]

How long is a piece of string?

[Big Joe]

There is no accurate price guide for dealing in instruments. No matter what the book tells you, there is no such thing that is accurate enough to use for spending money on an instrument.

[Talon]

There is no accurate price guide for dealing in instruments. #No matter what the book tells you, there is no such thing that is accurate enough to use for spending money on an instrument.

Whoever you are, that sounds condescending.
Nothing in life is for certain. I have although used an orion blue book, vintage guitar price guides etc.. to get in the ball park of a fair market value. Indeed every instrument is different and may be priced accordingly. I am not in the music industry and don't have time to research used prices, nor keep up with them year to year. I just thought some of the board members may be using some type of price guide for used instruments. Some people may find the use of a price guide beneficial, even if you don't. Please, let us, use our price guides in peace. Have a pleasant evening.

There is no accurate price guide for dealing in instruments. No matter what the book tells you, there is no such thing that is accurate enough to use for spending money on an instrument.

Whoever you are, that sounds condescending.
Nothing in life is for certain. I have although used an orion blue book, vintage guitar price guides etc.. to get in the ball park of a fair market value. Indeed every instrument is different and may be priced accordingly. I am not in the music industry and don't have time to research used prices, nor keep up with them year to year. I just thought some of the board members may be using some type of price guide for used instruments. Some people may find the use of a price guide beneficial, even if you don't. Please, let us, use our price guides in peace. Have a pleasant evening.

It's like I used to tell this old gal I used to run around with, "If you don't like the answer, don't ask the queston!!"

I don't know Big Joe from Adam, but I will tell you that he gave you the best and most concise answer that you are going to find on here or anywhere else for that matter. The market at that moment dictates the price.

From what I understand, Big Joe is an industry insider and you are going to have to look long and hard to find a more qualified answer or opinion.

What was the point of this thread again?

[250sc]

Talon,

Interesting attitude. Good luck and by all means, use your price guides in peace.

[AlanN]

As far as I know, there is no 'Blue Book' for vintage instruments. We must rely on informed folks for their valued opinions, and there are sufficient numbers of informed folks around to get a concensus on value.

Talon (as in claw)...hmmmm....

[cgwilsonjr]

Talon: I use the "Vintage Guitar Price Guide" that I order off the Vintage Guitar web-site. They issue one per year and it covers guitars, mandolins, ukes, basses and amps. It will give you a price range for an instrument in "excellent" condition. For an example, my 2004 guide list a 90's era Gibson A-5L mandolin as between $2,100 - 2,400. I have seen many of these for sale in the 2,500 range so I think it is good for a ball-park value for sure. Good luck. Chuck.

[LKN2MYIS]

Big Joe speaks the truth.

[Steven Stone]

[There is no accurate price guide for dealing in instruments. No matter what the book tells you, there is no such thing that is accurate enough to use for spending money on an instrument. ]

Big Joe and I see eye to eye on most things, but on this particular issue he is way off base.

The Vintage Guitar price guide is updated yearly. It comes out in October at the Arlington Guitar show. It is based on the actual prices paid for instruments as indicated by polling a large number of vintage dealers. No other guide uses this method.

While like printed publication, due to printing deadlines and lag time, it will never be 100% accurate, especially on very hot rapidly appreciating instruments, it does give a very precise picture of relative values for different but similar instruments, like a 1924 Loar vs a 1927 Fern.

Used in combination with other sources, such as current listings and consulatations with vintage dealers I think the VIntage Guide is the most accurate way to determine value. I bought my '31 Fern that way, and have sold countless vintage instruments using it as a base-price yardstick.

Although Joe is an expert in many areas due to his years of hand's on experience with mandolins and other vintage instruments, I am equally adept when it comes to vintage values due to my years of writing about vintage acoustics for Vintage Guitar Magazine (I have no direct involvement with the guide however.)

No one has ever been burned when using the Vintage Guitar Guide as a price basis for buying or selling an instrument. At the most recent 2005 Arlington Guitar Show the experienced dealers purchased their personal copies of the guide immediately upon arrival. They all consider it an essential tool for doing business.

"nuff said"

[Talon]

It's like I used to tell this old gal I used to run around with, "If you don't like the answer, don't ask the queston!!"

Got another one, my father always told me. If you don't have anything good to say, don't say anything. #

Steven Stone,cgwilsonjr, thanks for the tip. Looks like Vintage guitar magazines newest one is the one I'll pick up.

[BigJoe]

I will say Steven Stone is correct that the Vintage Guitar guide is the best on the market. I actually had not thought of that one. The others are too far removed from current activity and even the Vintage Guitar guide, while usefull as a ball park starting place, can not take into account local trends or economic alterations from month to month. I use Vintage Guitar magazine often and if I were to use a guide it would be that one. I stand corrected...kind of....Steven . I still say just be very carefull because if you don't really know what you are looking at, the guide may not be your best source of information. There are too many factors involved to buy from a book. Know the instrument, how to accurately determine condition, and what repairs are going to be needed. The guides cannot help you in that area and that is what scares me about them. What looks like an excellent condition guitar to you may need a neck set or have half its braces loose. These are things you will get burned on if you don't know what to look for.

[Steven Stone]

Joe is right when he says:

"There are too many factors involved to buy from a book. Know the instrument"

The VG Guide is a PRICE GUIDE it is based on prices not instruments. Condition is paramount in assessing value. The Guide has max - min prices based on instruments in EXCELLENT condition. Bad repairs, things that need to be repaired, structural and cosmetic issues all lower an instrument's value below "Excellent." Some things, like refinishes, can lower the value by as much as 50%. Determining whether a vintage isntrument has been refinished can be tricky. Overspray also lowers the value.

I always get a second opinion from someone I trust who is knowledgable before I spend money on an vintage mandolin or guitar.

"Buy in haste and regret at your leasure...."

[JGWoods]

Vintage- that means used right? Only more expensive.

My price guide for many things is ebay. If somehting is common enough to show up there often then ebay is a good guide- for example Gibson oval hole mandolins. There's 4-5 of them for sale every day and you can track the history of sales on 100 of them in the last month. It's a market of a million sellers and 40 million plus buyers and it cannot be ignored. If I want to know what my A4 is worth I can check ebay sales and comp a few that look about like mine. The thing to watch out for is that 70% of items don't sell- the owner asked too much $$. Look at what sold.

My other price guide is me. Things are worth whatever I will pay for them when I want one, and whatever I can get for one when I sell it.

[Talon]

Hmmm, lots of good advice, thanks! I can use the price guide as a general rule of thumb/ball park. I have a luthier within and hour or more, that I trust and has done work for us. I won't buy unless there is a grace/return period of at least 48 hours, and will let him look at instrument.

[fatt-dad]

Seeing as you have the internet, you can also check completed sales on ebay. Don't go one just one, but you will get an overall idea on what the market seems to bear.

fatt your-mileage-may-vary dad

[otterly2k]

I agree with fatt-dad --
if using internet sources, I would not use ebay alone (unless that's where you plan to buy/sell). yes, you can see what sold and for how much. But because these sales are rarely in person and are often based on less than thorough verbal info about condition (not to mention rarely includes in-person inspection of condition before the sale), I suspect it might look different than what reliable retailers/dealers would report. I'd say your best bet is to compile info from a variety of sources and use that as a window.

I think that's about as standardized as it gets in this market. Ultimately the value of any given instrument is what someone will pay for it. And that depends on so many variables, not limited to the instrument itself....

[f5loar]

Price guides are just that, guides and nothing else.
2 years ago a Fern Loar sells for $175K, the newest issue of VG prices a Loar at $125K and then 2 months later one sells off the cafe ads for $180K and a month after that Skinner auctions lets one go for $132K. So much for the guide price. PS: A really nice teens A4 just sold tonight on ebay for less than $2000. Check that price in your guides!

[Steven Stone]

The problem with using EBAY for your values is that very few instruments sold on EBAY are in "excellent" condition.

Most have issues that lower their value. Many dealers and collectors use EBAY to rid themselves of dogs and cats - instruments with problems that make them worth far less than clean examples.

Many other sellers on EBAY are too ignorant or shady to fully reveal the instrument's condition. Many people have shown me EBAY purchases that displayed serious problems that were not mentioned in the seller's descriptions.

As for the Loar prices in the Guide vs "the real world" F5loar bases his own Loar valuations on a few recent sales where the actual prices he has assertained may or may not be the final sales price. Only the 132K price is documentable.

In the world of vitnage isntruments, asking is rarely getting.

Unless he was the buyer, seller, God, or the seller's accountant, the actual sales price is not an established fact. Most folks involved in this kind of deal are less than forthright about the actual prices paid, because frankly, it is none of your business.

Many people can say "I'd pay you X for Y", but few have the stuff it takes to step up to the plate. Those that do step up rarely want to broadcast what it cost them to take a swing. Value is determined by the last documentable exchange involving the goods or services purchased. The VG guide works from documentable exchanges.

I expect that next year's guide will reflect these three deals that F5Loar mentions, if they can be documented and verified by the editors.

[Bob DeVellis]

Life is a lot easier if the instrument in question is common and popular. I doubt that many price guides will have information on some of the rarer birds out there (seen any Waldo prices in guide books?), which are some of the instruments I'm most attracted to. With less common instruments, prices through Ebay or through dealers can also vary widely. Even for Martin mandolins (which aren't rare and probably are in price guides) I've seen dealer prices that sometimes seem to assume that a pre-war mandolin should be comparable in price to a pre-war guitar. Also, for some uncommon instruments, there aren't that many people who know whether one is in excellent shape or not. Is a flush fingerboard on a Howe-Orme an original feature or a simpler repair that ignored origniality? Well, it depends, and few know exactly what it depends on. On the other hand, guides probably work pretty well for Gibsons, with the exception of the highly volatile upper-end, like Loars and ferns.

[f5loar]

This sort of pricing reminds me of vintage car prices.
You see ads in Hemmings Motor News: '57 Chevy for sale,spent $57,000 in restoration will sell for $32,000 OBO.
Yet the NADA guide at a high range price is $24,000.
It makes you wonder why anybody would invest $57K in a $24K car but they do.

[Links]

I have to agree with Steven on this, and what many others have also added. One thing that Steven said that I have often pondered is whether the price/value of an instrument is what the buyer pays or what the seller receives. For example, is the Loar that just sold at Skinners "worth" 132K that the buyer paid, or the 90K that the seller received (maybe even less if they had to pay capital gains on the mandolin).

Regarding the Vintage Guitar price guide, you also have to assume that the prices that were paid for those instruments were actual sales prices. I know for a fact that all dealers are not exactly candid when discussing prices that they sold or bought instruments for. Quite often a "trade" was involved. Kinda like trading two $25,000 cats for a $50,000 dog!

Also, many dealers are like antique dealers that I know. The "good stuff" never hits the showroom floor, as they have buyers for the best items that they find. Often dealers are also collectors and use their shops to discard the stuff that they do not want for their collections. Therefore it is awful hard to determine the actual value of excellent instruments by what many instruments sell for off of vintage shops.

[f5loar]

I would think the day the new owner took possesion of the Loar and shelled out $132K that this would be what that one is worth because I doubt seriously you would be able to buy it for any less the day after the auction. I would consider that price to be dealer/wholesale price since a dealer could have bought it for that and turn it around to a buyer he knows for $155K. It's true that the top end stuff stays in an elite circle of collectors and prices are not disclosed usually. Dealers like Gruhn,Mando Bros have their little black book of numbers to call first when a primo example of something comes in. As long as they get their 15 to 20% they could care less where the price falls inside or outside guide prices. They know those price guides are outdated by they time they go to print and so do the collectors/buyers.

[glauber]

But what if someone is not looking for a Loar, but a more pedestrian antique. Wouldn't it be a good idea to check a price guide before going wild and crazy on eBay?

[Steven Stone]

[I would think the day the new owner took possesion of the Loar and shelled out $132K that this would be what that one is worth because I doubt seriously you would be able to buy it for any less the day after the auction. I would consider that price to be dealer/wholesale price since a dealer could have bought it for that and turn it around to a buyer he knows for $155K.]

Perhaps I'm just dense this afternoon, but I don't find this logical.

This $132K was a retail price paid by an end user. Whether an dealer could turn the same instrument for $155,000 is conjecture. Frankly, I doubt it.

Links wrote:

"For example, is the Loar that just sold at Skinners "worth" 132K that the buyer paid, or the 90K that the seller received (maybe even less if they had to pay capital gains on the mandolin)."

I would consider that $90K the wholesale price and $132K retail. The difference was the dealer (or auction house's) profit.