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Thread: Predicting the Future

  1. #1

    Default Predicting the Future

    My prediction: In 20 years, the F5 will be passé.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I had hoped rap was a passing phase, but 40 years later.........

    I'll take the F5, anyday......

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  4. #3
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Mando View Post
    I had hoped rap was a passing phase, but 40 years later.........

    I'll take the F5, anyday......
    You know, something odd occurred a few months ago.

    Let me first say I am not particularly a fan of rap or any related forms.

    I was at rehab (following a heart attack - gives you an idea of my age). We were doing endurance training that day, which meant running on a treadmill. As always, some streaming service was running. The therapists who worked this rehab are all pretty young, and the music fits them.

    Anyway, on this day, some 80s-era Public Enemy came up. It was so different than the current stuff you hear all over the place. I actually enjoyed it. I remember having a different opinion when it was new, but now I see how carefully constructed and intelligent it is (implicit comparison: “unlike current rap”).

    It’s 30-40 years old. Older than big band swing was when I was a kid.

    I’m not sure what that says about anything. Maybe more about me than anything else.


    Steven

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    Registered User Doug Brock's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I'm 58 and hope I'm alive at that point to see if you're right, but the odds are that I won't be, lol. After about five A-style mandolins, I bought my first F5 style mandolin in late 2018 and I'm having trouble even considering A-styles anymore! Just love the F5 look and feel. Yes, you'll generally get more for your money with the A-style, but the F5 has a definite mystique for me!
    Doug Brock
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  8. #5
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Come back in 20 years and remind us. ....... assuming the cafe and the interweb are still around and I, for one, expect to be in a wooden box by then.

  9. #6

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    But then in 20 years the 2039 equivalent of hipsters will embrace the passe-ness of the F5 and bring it right back. Circle of life.
    Last edited by vetus scotia; Apr-17-2019 at 2:33pm. Reason: I cannot add 20 to 2019 properly

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  11. #7
    Registered User Charles E.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    And just what, pray tell, will replace it?
    Charley

    A bunch of stuff with four strings

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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I doubt it. Thile plays an F5. So many hot young kids are picking F5s. Don't get me wrong, I love two points, flatbacks, cylinder backs, even banjo mandolins and bedpandolins (Commodium) but, I think the F5 will remain prime in America, at least.

    I've been on this site since 2004. I've not seen anything trending in the death of the F5 direction.

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  13. #9
    Mando accumulator allenhopkins's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Anyway, in 20 years I'll likely be passe –– and passed on...
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I have owned a couple F's, I own all A's now. I love two points and F's look good, but I prefer to play an A. 20 years from now I would be very lucky to still be alive to say "see they are still around".
    THE WORLD IS A BETTER PLACE JUST FOR YOUR SMILE!

  15. #11

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I remember watching the Jetsons and assuming that by now I would live in a bubble on a pole and have very cool clothes. The thread started with me pondering where the F-5 (now almost 100 years old and holding strong, at least since a significant resurgence in the 1980s) might go in such futuristic times. Maybe Brentrup's V-8, Ratcliff's El Phantasma, Lestock's Arrow, Rigel's G-110, Giacomel's J-5, Breedlove's K-model, lot's of variations on the 2-point (but probably not the Ovation mandolin), etc will really catch on? How long can the F-5 maintain its overwhelming popularity/reign of terror?

  16. #12

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I completely agree. Because I notoriously make abysmal investments, let me assure you, Gibson ferns will tank the worst. My open offer to buy any vintage fern for $2000 will save you the heartache when you have to burn them in lieu of firewood when the mandolin market collapses. You can laugh with glee when you see me living in my tent, while you are living lavishly in your van bought with your proceeds.
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  18. #13
    Registered User Charles E.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    To the OP, do you have any thoughts or opinions to back up your "prediction" or are you just trolling?
    Charley

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  20. #14

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I think it is a distinct possibility. Few fashions last indefinitely. The F-5 came to dominate because of Bill. Among those who are less influenced by him or the first generation of his followers, the F-5 is less dominant (e.g., the jazz mandolin crowd). As codgers like me go to the great jam circle in the sky, will new fashions in mandolin design assume a larger share of the market? Young people tend to be drawn to anything other than what their parents were into. Just a point of discussion.

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    Registered User JAK's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    "In 20 years the F5 will be passé." That's what a bunch of people said when Lloyd Loar left The Gibson Company back in 1925.
    John A. Karsemeyer

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  24. #16

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I’ve got $10 to say it goes the other way - the mandolin of the future will have a minimum of four scrolls. (Mind you that’s $10 in 2039 dollars)

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  26. #17
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I had a chance to tour the Collings factory in Austin a few weeks ago. . . and there sure were a lot of A style in production compared with F style! Still, string players are a conservative lot, F mandos dominate among the U.S. pros and semi-pros, so 20 years to "passé" strikes me an unlikely steep trajectory.

  27. #18

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Also, in the future, when people say “two point mandolin” they will be referring to the Duffy Duck style, which will have become very popular.

  28. #19

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Maple will be more or less extinct, so most high quality mandos will feature backs and sides of “flamed MDF” and most will have tandem adjustable bridges for some reason

  29. #20

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    20 years after Loar left Gibson, the F-5 WAS passe' (i.e., no longer fashionable; out of date). Even in the 70s, folks were picking up Loars for peanuts. But I'm not talking about Loars. I'm talking about the F-5 design as a players' and buyers' preference. If everybody plays an F-5, eventually, someone will want to be different, or at least different from their parents. But then again, non-traditionalists don't generally gravitate to mandolin. Maybe tradition will prevail.
    Last edited by 1Yooper; Apr-17-2019 at 8:16pm.

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  31. #21

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    A Collings MT 2 goes for what, $3800? The F style version is $8000?

    You see attractively priced F styles languishing on websites for months. Retail businesses can finance like The Mandolin Store, or take plastic. The individual needs cash. I'd be curious to know how the smaller tax refunds, even with overall lower tax rates, will affect instrument sales. It's a lot easier to justify buying something when your refund goes halfway.
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  32. #22
    Mandolin Player trodgers's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    My crystal ball says the matter will be settled in a bare-knuckle brawl between Tim O'Brien and Sam Bush. The bout will be broadcast on 'Live From Here'.
    “Like winds and sunsets, wild things were taken for granted until progress began to do away with them. Now we face the question whether a still higher ‘standard of living’ is worth its cost in things natural, wild and free.” -- Aldo Leopold

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  34. #23
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by 1Yooper View Post
    My prediction: In 20 years, the F5 will be passé.
    Got any F5s you want to send my way in exchange for some A models? If you’re correct, you ought to come out ahead in the long run.
    "I'm a farmer with a mandolin and a high tenor voice."

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  36. #24
    Registered User JAK's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    The basic design of the Amati violin from the 1500's has not changed significantly as of today.
    John A. Karsemeyer

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  38. #25
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    There's only one thing I know for sure. Keith Richards will still be around to see it if it does happen.
    "Bargain instruments are no bargains if you can't play them". These are the words of J. Garber.

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