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Thread: Predicting the Future

  1. #26

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Actually, the basic design of the 1500s violin, and even the 1700s design, has changed significantly. There are very few few un-modernized Stradivarius violins in existense.

  2. #27
    Mandolin user MontanaMatt's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Fiddles have only changed a little...That was mainly due to string technology I think. Stronger strings needed a higher break angle, thus higher bridges and neck projection changes were retrofitted to the old boxes. The graduations, f holes, sound posts, kerfing, tuning pegs, end block and neck block system, the weighted scroll all remain.
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  3. #28
    Registered User Eric Platt's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Nah. Still see too many folks that don't play bluegrass play an F style. Still popular in old time, Scandinavian (especially Finnish), etc.

    And it's still the design many folks use to judge the skill of a builder.

    While there are more options in guitar design out there, most electrics are still variations of Tele/Strat/Les Paul/SG. And most acoustics are D/OOO/J-xx style.
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  4. #29
    Phil Goodson Philphool's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    All the folks who can successfully predict the future are too busy spending their investment money to post here.
    Phil

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  6. #30
    Moderator MikeEdgerton's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Philphool View Post
    All the folks who can successfully predict the future are too busy spending their investment money to post here.
    Not to mention their lottery winnings.
    "Bargain instruments are no bargains if you can't play them". These are the words of J. Garber.

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  8. #31
    mandolin slinger Steve Ostrander's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I should have been a rap "artist." I can write bad poetry with no melody any old day.
    Never say "bouzouki" to a TSA agent...

  9. #32
    Registered User Randi Gormley's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I'll admit to no background in rap, but I was in my car at a red light and someone was blaring what appeared to be rap from a nearby car and the rhythm, pulse, beat and complexity of the sound was mesmerizing. I was tempted to find the car the music was coming from and ask who the artist was but the light turned green and i just went on. Whoever the artist was was, definitely, an artist.

    As for predictions, I'll say the bowlback will still not be the predominant form of mandolin in 20 years!
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  11. #33

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I just realized, and hate to bring it up, but in the big picture scheme of things every mandolin built since around 1920 has been and most probably will continue to be passe.

    Now among the .00157 percent of the general populace, and the .00625 percent of the general populace who play instruments, there are a miniscule few who play mandolin, and of those it will be the people who will pay double who will determine the fate of the F style.
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  12. #34
    Mando accumulator allenhopkins's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Randi Gormley View Post
    ...Whoever the artist was was, definitely, an artist...
    Guy Lombardo, maybe?

    Jus' guessin'...

    On the topic at hand: the carved/arched top, f-hole, scrolled body has become so much the stereotype of the "folk" or "bluegrass" mandolin, that audiences see other mandolin silhouettes as unusual. Why are Asian manufacturers churning out thousands of F-5 clones to be sold in various parts of the world, when there are so many other perfectly valid -- and less expensive to make -- body styles they could be using?

    It's because that Gibson F-5 has been publicized, not just by Monroe, but by all kinds of bluegrass mandolinists for 70+ years. Remember, Dave Apollon also played an F-5; wasn't just the 'grassers that featured them. If we still find bluegrass as the primary American recruitment medium for new mandolinists, we'll doubtless find continued popularity for the F-5 style.
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  13. #35
    Registered User Timbofood's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    The Duffey Duck will be the rage!
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  14. #36

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Randi Gormley View Post
    I'll admit to no background in rap, but I was in my car at a red light and someone was blaring what appeared to be rap from a nearby car and the rhythm, pulse, beat and complexity of the sound was mesmerizing. I was tempted to find the car the music was coming from and ask who the artist was but the light turned green and i just went on. Whoever the artist was was, definitely, an artist.
    I guess it begs the question.......when was the last time waiting at a red light that you heard bluegrass or irish folk music blaring from a nearby car? It seems certain fans of certain music feel very "comfortable" in sharing their great taste in music...........I admire your open-mindedness in hearing the artistry rather than just being annoyed like I find myself doing in similar situations.....

    I used the term "music" although I'm still not sure rap is actually music -- I will go so far as to say it is poetry set to a beat and when done well it can be artistic, but still not for me, unfortunately.

  15. #37

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Mando View Post
    when was the last time waiting at a red light that you heard bluegrass or irish folk music blaring from a nearby car?
    As my mortified with embarrassment kids will tell you, I routinely blare Bluegrass Junction, or my favorite CDs, like Skaggs and Rice or Hold On, We're Strummin', with the windows down!

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  17. #38
    Fingers of Concrete ccravens's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Charles E. View Post
    To the OP, do you have any thoughts or opinions to back up your "prediction" or are you just trolling?
    Lighten up, Francis.

    Before you accuse someone of trolling, maybe consider that the OP was just trying to start an interesting, harmless, thought-provoking discussion.

    Seems like it has succeeded so far.
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  19. #39

    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I'd love to see a world that progressed beyond F5 mandolins, dreadnoughts, Les Pauls, and strat / tele clones....but it ain't gonna happen!

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  21. #40
    Registered User David Beavers's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I doubt the F5 will fade away in 20 years. I see too many clips of talented teenagers playing F5's. I think they are more indicative of the future of the instrument.
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  22. #41
    Mando-Accumulator Jim Garber's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by 1Yooper View Post
    Maybe Brentrup's V-8, Ratcliff's El Phantasma, Lestock's Arrow, Rigel's G-110, Giacomel's J-5, Breedlove's K-model, lot's of variations on the 2-point (but probably not the Ovation mandolin), etc will really catch on? How long can the F-5 maintain its overwhelming popularity/reign of terror?
    Hans is no longer building, Rigel is making only custom instruments, Phoenix is also gone. The others are all higher end that appeal to certain tastes and aesthetics or provide unique tone. Monteleone is barely making mandolins and there are were a few copies of them but they also appeal to certain players.

    OTOH there are probably thousands of F-5 copies out there at varying price points. This will not stop since this is the standard style for modern mandolins. Perhaps if interest in bluegrass music died altogether, but I highly doubt that will ever happen.

    Yes, if the F-5 becomes passé then you can imagine that Strats, Teles, and dreadnaughts will also. Highly doubtful.
    Last edited by Jim Garber; Apr-18-2019 at 9:36pm.
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  23. #42
    The Amateur Mandolinist Mark Gunter's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeEdgerton View Post
    There's only one thing I know for sure. Keith Richards will still be around to see it if it does happen.
    And Willie Nelson will be writing a song about it.
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  24. #43
    The Amateur Mandolinist Mark Gunter's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    I suppose the dreadnaught guitar fad will be over as well.
    Technique, theory and fun, fun, fun. I love playing, studying and sharing MUSIC.
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  26. #44
    Registered User Charles E.'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by ccravens View Post
    Lighten up, Francis.

    Before you accuse someone of trolling, maybe consider that the OP was just trying to start an interesting, harmless, thought-provoking discussion.

    Seems like it has succeeded so far.
    Francis?

    But you are right, I spoke too soon.
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  27. #45
    Registered User JAK's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    This is all "food for thought," no?
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  28. #46
    Mando-Accumulator Jim Garber's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by JAK View Post
    This is all "food for thought," no?
    Yum!

    OK, so the premise for this discussion is when the most popular style of mandolin made today, one that dates back to the 1920s will finally run its course. In the meantime, all the alternatives that have come up have their small groups of fans but none have come close to the Gibson patterns—and I will include the a models and those with oval holes. I do think that comparison with violins is valid and, yes, the original violins have been altered some but the general look of the instrument has pretty much appeared the same for hundreds of years with no real drip in popularity. So why would the Gibson style fall off the face of the earth?
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  29. #47
    Mando-Accumulator Jim Garber's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Charles E. View Post
    Francis?

    But you are right, I spoke too soon.
    Explanation here.
    Jim

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  31. #48
    Registered User foldedpath's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    The violin still has that frilly scroll above the pegbox. It's totally non-functional, and all the larger violin family instruments have it too, even the double bass! The violin family is the closest relative of our fretted versions in mandolin land. So if those instruments can keep their frilly scrolls through all this time, I think there's a good chance mandolins can too.

    It's going on 100 years now since the precursor designs from Orville Gibson introduced those curves, so that's a good start.

  32. #49
    Mandolin user MontanaMatt's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    Consider that as the F5 becomes "passé " it's price will drop considerably, and all the closeted scroll strap hangers will snatch them up. I wonder, what is the natural attrition rate of F5 instruments? As in full fatalities. And if new F5 building ceases, how long will they be played into the future? There are quite a few of them in the wild I hear. Surely some of you want to do a Fermi calculation!?
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  33. #50
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    Default Re: Predicting the Future

    The Les Paul, Telecaster, and Stratocaster are still the vast majority of body styles for the electric guitar and they've had staying power since the early days of rock and roll. Not saying there is a direct correlation, but something is to be said for tradition.

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