Is the electric guitar dying, taking Gibson and others with it?

[sblock]

Today's issue of the Washington Post carries a thought-provoking article that, while it has no direct mandolin content, should be of considerable interest to most of us here on the MC. It talks about the "demise" of the electric guitar and the fact that big-chain music stores like Guitar Center and Sam Ash are now heavily in debt. It talks about falling prospects at Gibson and Fender, the latest NAMM show, and some of the (bad) decisions folks like Henry Juszkiewicz have made. It interviews and features George Gruhn of Nashville. I wonder what my fellow mandolinists think of all this?

The article can be read by clicking on the link here.

Just in case you can't reach the link, I'm providing a PDF version of it here, too.

[Darren Bailey]

It's a recurring cycle here in the UK. Electronic music surfaces for a while, then a band like Oasis comes along and teenagers discover the attraction of emulating their hero. But the modern state of music doesn't promise much for the future.

[catmandu2]

By the prevalence of electric gtr (and its cultural effects) in my kids' middle school, I'd tend to think the instrument's popularity is still quite robust (moreso than any other instrument, in fact).

I consider the age of rock highlighted in the article the "golden age" of analog. While dig tech and gadgetry of all manner will continue to dominate markets, and the 'great heroes' of analog gtr are perhaps bygone, there is still a pervasive measure of 'garage' electric around I guess. So the industry may not be seeing les paul sales, but other innovations (parker, et al) have a share of the market. Add in all the other dig tech, and I'm sure that les pauls aren't dominating as they were. All things must pass. The great instrument of the future? - electronic.

[Tobin]

Thanks for providing the PDF, sblock, since the article wouldn't let me past the subscription spiel.

I think the tendency is to lament the slowing of electric guitar sales as some sort of loss in our culture, but it could also be looked at as simply a market bubble that has burst. I grew up in the 1980s and 1990s, when electric guitars were probably at their peak. It was the thing cool kids did to emulate our guitar heroes. But even then, genuine rock-n-roll was already on the decline, in terms of making music with guitars and drums. The techno craze and emergence of hip-hop in popular culture drove people in a different direction. Today's popular music (what I hear of it, anyway, which isn't much) just doesn't sound like the kind of music a teenager can replicate in his bedroom with an electric guitar and amp.

But while the popularity of guitars has been declining, the influx of cheap imported guitars has been on the rise. The two were bound to cross each other at some point.

I'd like to think that this is a sign that tastes are coming back around to the point where people have more appreciation for making music on acoustic instruments in a more organic, folk-music based manner. I was delighted to read in the article that acoustic guitars are outselling electrics now. That was a surprise. But alas, I doubt that the younger generation is taking that approach. Most likely, they are just losing interest in the art of traditional music-making. Computer technology is probably where they're going with their creative interests.

I'm not sure that there's a parallel with mandolins or other folk-type instruments. Those of us who play bluegrass, old-time, and other similar genres, seem to exist in a different market than the angst-ridden teens with their electric guitars.

[nmiller]

They said the guitar was dying out in the '70s and '80s as synths became all the rage. As we all know, it was completely gone after that, never to return.

[darrylicshon]

I don't think the electric guitar will ever go , there are so many companies making good cheap guitars , which makes it harder for Gibson and other expensive guitars to sell, I've owned atleast 300 guitars and have only paid over 2k twice. A friend brought over a cheaper epip Les Paul his father gave him , I gave it a setup and later that week he called and said it plays better than his most expensive one , I told him bring it over and I'll set that one up also , he has been lazy and just been playing his Paul , but keeps saying I'm going to bring it over, funny how he is happy playing a $100 guitar and hasn't bothered to get his 2k one setup , I know he will some day

[Mandobar]

Some builders/companies are struggling due to their business models and some bad choices, but others seem to god thriving. Thorn, Koll, Danocaster, and a slew of others are doing quite well. Mass manufacturing and big chain stores might be struggling, but there are plenty of other options available.

[sblock]

...
I'm not sure that there's a parallel with mandolins or other folk-type instruments. Those of us who play bluegrass, old-time, and other similar genres, seem to exist in a different market than the angst-ridden teens with their electric guitars.

I agree entirely: we exist in a different world. (And I'd say a better world, largely free of "teen angst"! ) However, if the continuing slump in electric guitar sales -- along with a slew of bad business decisions by CEO Henry J -- manages to take out Gibson, Inc., then there will be no more mandolins from Gibson, either. Or acoustic guitars. And that would make a lot of people on the MC unhappy, I think.

[dwc]

I straddle the Millennial/Gen-xer line and I play music with people from 25 to 75. That is pretty much the earliest Boomers to the middle of the Millennials, and part of it is interest, but a lot of it is economic.

My generation (25-40ish) doesn't have the disposable income that Boomers have now or had at a comparable time in their lives. We don't live in houses as nice as those that our parents owned at the same age/stage of life; we don't drive cars that are as nice (I know young partners at prestigious law firms that are still driving the cars their parents handed down to them in college), and we certainly can't afford the same toys, from boats (fishing or sailing) to beach houses, to musical instruments.

I am a rarity in the sub forty age group who can afford to have 2 $5k instruments, most of my peers can't afford one. And of my peers who do own a nice instrument, most of them own 1, and it is usually an acoustic guitar, since that is most versatile. I know lots of kids (sub 18 years old) that have electrics, but I can't think of a single person in my age bracket (again I am talking about 25-40) who owns an electric guitar.

[Ky Slim]

Seems like the Guitar Hero game that came out in 2005 may have had some impact. The itch to "rock out" was easily scratched for an awful lot of people

[catmandu2]

In fact, thinking a little more .. I'd speculate that e. gtr is *more* prolific today in school and elsewhere than even when I was 13 y.o. Today there's all manner of access and points of entry - from full-on toys and gadgets (coming soon: Fidget Spinner Guitar Hero III) to no dearth of prog rock, jazz, avant and some 70 yrs of recording frenzy e. gtr-based music to exercise one's chops...summer camps, productions, heck, even your teachers and parents dig it!..it's a norm. Dont forget what the e. gtr has become/represents in western culture. There weren't so many girls in rock gtr when I was 13, nor parents and grand parents!.. It's so much broader now (coming from a kid nurtured on zep et al, totally consumed by that age).

[catmandu2]

Re tobin: as far as 'parallels' or such, I suspect every (major instr category) market got bigger. Including elec gtr. I think it was you mentioned, while not les pls, trends in entry level product. This Is revealing. That's the big market, I'm sure. This is like the golden age of access/inexpensive functionality, and hype.

[Tobin]

I agree entirely: we exist in a different world. (And I'd say a better world, largely free of "teen angst"! ) However, if the continuing slump in electric guitar sales -- along with a slew of bad business decisions by CEO Henry J -- manage to take out Gibson, Inc., then there will be no more mandolins from Gibson, either. Or acoustic guitars. And that would make a lot of people on the MC unhappy, I think.

Well sure, we'd miss Gibson mandolins. But honestly, how many of us are buying brand-new ones from their shop? They don't make but a handful each year, and there are enough on the used market to satisfy people. If they stopped making mandolins, the existing stock would become a bit more collectible, but it wouldn't change much else. Gibson has been a very small "bit player" in the mandolin market for some time now. They'd be missed for sure, but it wouldn't really upset the market.

Heck, Gibson stopped making banjos a long time ago. And while their earlier models are highly collectible, people generally agree that their later models sucked and that the banjo market is doing just fine without them.

Honestly, I think the instrument market is going through a decentralization phase. The days of large manufacturers dominating the market are over, except for the "budget" models. Small builders are the ones making the best mandolins these days, as well as the best banjos. I think the guitar market is headed that way too. It's just been longer in coming.

[catmandu2]

The shear number of functional (and even good) used gtrs available now is nearly astronomic, maybe. Marketing children is loads easier than selling most adults, what with hormones, media, etc.

[MikeZito]

They said the guitar was dying out in the '70s and '80s as synths became all the rage.

The one thing that I seem to have noticed in the past 30 years is a down-turn in traditional 4-sring bass players. When I was first playing bass in the late 70's and early 80's, synthesizer and keyboard effects makers were constantly frustrated because they couldn't make an instrument that sounded like a real bass. When then the synthesizer craze hit its peak around the mid 80's, all of a sudden everything turned upside down - bass players were now buying 5 and 6 string basses, and playing through all kinds of effects pedals, so that they could sound like synthesizers.

[Tom Wright]

A Fender or Gibson was always expensive, but there was no alternative. Now there are very good low-cost instruments. Guitar is very much alive and well. But the guitar stores can't compete with internet sales. I have ordered some items online from Guitar Center to help them out.

[DHopkins]

You have guitar makers, amplifier makers, pedal makers (making pedals that will do everything but scratch your back) and lord knows what. Too many people have too much into it for the electric guitar to fall out of favor.

[Folkmusician.com]

The music industry as a whole is in bad shape. I 100% agree with George Gruhn's comment.

“I’m not all doomsday, but this this is not sustainable.”

The majority of the market is still there, but there is not enough to go around. It brings up the quote "survival of the fittest". But what happens when the strong are overwhelmed by an onslaught of the weak. That is exactly what is happening. As with most things, it is rather complex.

Adapt or die... Unfortunately, adapt doesn't necessarily equate to selling quality product, providing great service, setting up instruments, etc... There is a very limited market for that. To most buyers, these are commodity products. We here on the Cafe do not represent the majority.

Mandolins are a niche product, but they are far from immune.

[Folkmusician.com]

Of interest...

Amazon's top 5 most popular mandolins move approx. 6000 per year.
All are priced under $100

The vast majority of top selling guitars are not just under $100, they are under $40, with free 2 day shipping. Just looking at a handful, they are already up close to 100k units per year in volume. This is the single biggest problem in the industry. Even the best dealers with the strongest business models are not immune to this.

[Louise NM]

And what happens to people who start with an $89.95 mandolin or a $35 guitar? Are the instruments playable, or are they sheer junk, frustrating enough that people quit within weeks?

I have yet to see the term MSO used here: mandolin-shaped object. The bowed string world is full of VSOs, poorly made violins, impossible to tune, wretched to play, with a sound that will strip the paint clean off your walls. While beginners don't need $5000 instruments—either mandolins or violins—spending a few hundred on an Eastman or its equivalent gives a beginner a decent chance at creating a pleasant sound.

[CarlM]

When I was young our parents had all learned to play piano and that was the instrument that was pushed in school and at home while we all wanted to rebel and play guitar. Many if not most homes had a piano. Guitar took over the place piano had in the world. They cost less and took less space. Times have changed. Young people are more interested in electronics and digital stuff, musically and otherwise. Most homes have at least one computer. Those did not even exist when guitar pushed the piano aside.

As far as the generational thing with disposable income, when I started guitar neither I nor most of my friends had any disposable income. Considering the quality of late 1960s, early 1970s Martins and Gibsons, it is just as well I could not afford one then. I had to build up to decent instruments over a lot of years.

[Ivan Kelsall]

If you have a 'saturated' market of any product,then the market will slow down. If production exceeds demand,as so often happens in the car sales game,makers have to cut back on production. I'm sure that market fluctuations happen every so often in any area of consumerism. Wait a few years & the story might be totally different.

Regarding the 'music industry as a whole' - that's a fairly complex story. IMHO ,the music industry shot itself in both feet when, in an effort to boost sales,but cut expense,they allowed 'paid for music downloads' via the Internet. Well,we all know what happens then don't we ?. Somebody comes along & finds a 'work-around' & suddenly the music's all there 'for free'. So the record companies loose out 100%.
I strongly suspect that another reason for the poor shape of the music industry in general,is the 'style' of music on offer. Here in the UK,i'd be hard put to name the top 10 bands/singers,simply because the music they put out,isn't to my taste. Most of it is still focused on the 'teenie' market. There's very little indeed for the over 50's. Mostly,we're the ones with the cash to buy - but there's nothing for us,unless as in my own case,i have Bluegrass music to enjoy. (insert own preferred 'genre').

I suppose it was the same back in the 1050's when Rock'n Roll came on the scene,quickly followed by the ''Merseybeat'' sound from Liverpool UK in the 1960's. I'd bet many parents such as my own, lamented the demise of the 'crooners' & 'balladeers', althought the big names such as Frank Sinatra etc. were so well established that they had their hardcore fans & so were able to carry on making recordings for those folk.

The music industry is driven by one thing - making money,& why not ?. However,for the vast majority of us,the menu has nothing on it to our taste !. So,if the majority don't buy as they once used to,the music industry will loose out,
Ivan

[Ron McMillan]

Q: Is the electric guitar dying? A: Maybe
Q: Is there something we can do about that? A: Probably not

[Beanzy]

As I tend to ignore rock guitar my experience is only anecdotal & local, but around here the prevelance of pretty decent quality acoustic guitars with on-board pre-amps & eq bought online for around the £300 mark (including archtop reproduction models) would seem to indicate a shift in preference rather than the demise of a guitar appetite. Quite telling for me is the number of youngsters who seem to have the Strat & Les Paul copies as their 3rd & 4th guitar purchase, (after a dread or cutaway & an arch top) whereas they would have been the 2nd when I grew up with many jumping straignt in on electric.

I think the role models are now acoustic plugged in, rather than the Zep-heads & Knopflerites of my youth. The singer doesn't even have to be able to play an instrument now, but the kids bands seem much more balanced across several roles, being prepared to include alternative instruments from day one. I like the more diverse angles which are tried now, even if it does mean you get things like MumsFord & Sons & clones popping up like a fungus.

Perhaps it's just a symptom of the huge dominance which electric guitar bands had for so long. With the over-saturation creativity would tend to look to be different rather than tread an overcrowded pathway where getting noticed would be so much more difficult.

[Charlieshafer]

Sort of an overview of thoughts here. What Robert Fear said about general over saturation is probably closest. Low priced introductory instruments don't bother me. If anything, the more the merrier, as they're bought by people who would never pay $3-400 if that was the get-in price, thus skipping the musical experience entirely. How many of us look piano lessons on cheap upright pianos? We may not have stuck with the piano, but we stuck with music. That's the important thing.

Taste and styles of music? Maybe a little; as acoustic has grown substantially. Again, if you watched American Idol (sort of had to if you wanted to see what was happening trend-wise) in the last 3 seasons, having string quartets, or full string sections, was actually more common than having rock band backing. The power ballads sort of got tiresome. Plus, how many "guitar heroes" are there right now? Not the older guys who have been around forever, like a Clapton, but in current rock? I can't think of any. There are great musicians, but it doesn't seem like anyone lives by the solo.

It's really just a question, as so many have said, of saturation. I actually see a lot of young musicians who started totally acoustic in whatever they play, now carrying an electric whatever just to add some texture and variety to their longer sets.

The internet and streaming has nothing to do with the number of instruments sold. If anything, access to more styles of music is what helps drive the sales of the cheap starter instruments from Amazon. That they're selling 6000 a year is sort of stunning, actually, based on how many fly off the shelves of the local music stores. They're not cannibalizing sales, either. At the sub-$100 pice point, music stores not only wouldn't carry them, but couldn't stay in business. Again, a sub-$100 instrument sale is not taking anything from the more expensive market. Never has, never will. It's a feeder market, and any market needs that. No one starts with a Ferrari.

So, I guess like everything, it's just cyclical. There are no new instruments drawing young players away, and from what I see, there are plenty of kids involved in music, either through schools or on their own. Every festival now has a program for kids. The abundance of music camps is at never-seen before levels. Overall, I truly think music is healthy, and not at all in a tailspin. Income from music? People just need to sort it out, but the opportunities are there like never before. There's just a glut right now, as with many retail-oriented businesses.