Facing evacuation

[OldGus]

It's a good time to sell stuff down and pick up some survival gear. I hope it works out...

[Nick Gellie]

This is what I sent to Kokopeli just then.

Perfect! you sent me all the information I need to do a more complete analysis. Because of the light winds today, the fire will do short runs upslope towards you. I don't expect it to do more than 1-2 km in your direction. Fuels are dry at 5% but expect once the cloud cover comes over for them to rise above 7% which is a good thing. Cloud cover means less wind and higher fuel moisture contents. You might a thunderstorm in two day's time which could drop 2-5 mm on the fire and expect that to calm it down for a day or two. The fir is spreading in an ENE direction towards you. It will be mainly a surface fire in pine forest with intermittent crowning up steep slopes. The forecast light winds are helping the situation.

THe furthest northern fire perimeter is by my reckoning 13 miles from your place so my initial estimate of time to reach your place is more likely 3-9 hours under a strong south-westerly but more likely to reach you in 2-3 day's time.

Here is a Google map for everyone's reference. it is a bit rough but it will do for the purpose. The orange fuzzy map is the fire perimeter and Kokopeli's house is to the north of the fire indicated by a highlighted placemark.



THere will be lots of smoke from the fire because of an atmospheric inversion during the day and at night which will be a nuisance.

[mandocrucian]

If it was me, I'd be arranging some preemptive action, either calling up relatives and/or musician friends (who are outside of a fire danger zone), NOW, and asking if they would to drive up to the house and collect a load of gear/instruments and stash them in their garages until the threat is over. ( Have a list made up for each load of stuff, so you'll know where and with whom your stuff is being babysat.

If that isn't possible, I 'd think about finding somewhere to stash stuff an hour or two away. Storage unit(s) for the PA gear, electrics, etc.

Yeah, both are big hassles, but only if the flames miss your house. If you do get burned out, then you will have exercised clairvoyant foresight by saving your best stuff (and a lot more of it). I'd rather play it safe.

NH

[hank]

Another thought if you have someone nearby that you can hire to do it, is having your metal storage container covered with soil like a bunker and remove any trees or brush adjacent to it. Hopefully it's big enough to store not only your musical stuff but your other unreplaceables like photos, paintings, heirloom's etc.. This would also free up your vehicles of stuff to better utilize them for the emergency at hand. This will always be available if you dodge the bullet this time but happens again later.

[k0k0peli]

This is what I sent to Kokopeli just then.

I forwarded your analyses to my local relatives and, as I mentioned in PM, one couple decided that enough was enough -- they're off to Reno immediately. (I told you Las Vegas. I stand corrected.) Thanks for this critical info.

If it was me, I'd be arranging some preemptive action, either calling up relatives and/or musician friends (who are outside of a fire danger zone), NOW, and asking if they would to drive up to the house and collect a load of gear/instruments and stash them in their garages until the threat is over.

Alas, that is just not feasible. Our local kin and pals have already evacuated or will soon. We are at the edge of civilization here -- most communications run west through the threatened fire zone. We can easily escape eastward but it's 80 mountain miles to the next storage facility.

Most of the instruments and gear to be Left Behind are inexpensive and easily replaced. I think. Hmmm, I'd better check values of some old electrics I haven't played lately... Dang, they're worth about a grand each. Okay, I squeezed them in. Oh well, I know everything else musical is expendable. If it burns, it burns. I fret more over very hard-to-move items worth more than all the remaining music stuff combined. We're insured. It's just stuff. [/me tries to rationalize]

Another thought if you have someone nearby that you can hire to do it, is having your metal storage container covered with soil like a bunker and remove any trees or brush adjacent to it.

It's an 8x8x20 foot shipping container, the kind that hauls scrap to China and finished goods back, nestled under some 120-foot cedar trees. Not quite suitable for bunkering on short notice, alas. And I think most of the local heavy-equipment guys have already evacuated. I think I'm on my own here.
__________

THE LATEST: We may leave tomorrow; we booked a room in the North Bay, upwind of all current fires. But we may not need to! The closest evacuation orders have just been lifted (at least since I started writing this post). The fire barrier at the bottom of steep Mokelumne (moh-KELL-um-nee) River Canyon seems to be containing the northward spread. BUT! Winds may shift tomorrow. The fire's north region could flare up again. We will not unpack for days, maybe a week. We will stay in run-in-five-minutes mode, just in case. But we feel less stress.

It ain't over till it's over and it ain't over yet but doom seems less imminent. No matter what happens, we'll be fine. Cheers!

EDIT: I don't wish to downplay the tragedy. WE may come out unscathed but hundreds lost their homes in this one fire. Some will rebuild and some will look for less flammable environs. Smoke will hang heavy over us or some time. Very very fortunately, no people were directly hurt that we know of. And I am proud of how our community pulls together in adversity. The Jackson Rancheria Band of Miwuk Indians are giving generously to help evacuees and rescuers and will undoubtedly support rebuilding and reclamation efforts. Oops, I must end this post now. More later.

[aphillips]

Glad you are safe for now! Take care!

[Nick Gellie]

It is my experience that once one gets past the autumnal equinox, dews set in overnight in the mountains as we move from late summer into autumn. This helps fuel moisture recovery overnight to the point where fires in light fuels start to go out overnight. THe dead down debris can still stay alight and start a new run the next but it depends to be later in the day. Day length also shortens which reduces fuel heating. There is also more shading of northern slopes so all in all the fire threat eases day by day ven though one can still get a spike in the fire weather. Once a few repeated rainfalls occur this also alleviates the fire situation.

[John Kelly]

This has been a fascinating insight into what you have been going through for so many days, and constantly under the threat of very real and life-threatening dangers.

Over here in Scotland the fires rate small news coverage - I have just been reading about the situation in my daily paper here this morning but reading your updates we get a real feeling of what exactly is going on and just what it means to all those affected. Our climate pretty much precludes big forest fires though we live in a heavily forested area here in Argyll, but the rains work in our favour!

Hope all goes well for you and yours.

[Nick Gellie]

The best summary of the progression of the Butte fire is in Wildfire today for those of you who are interested:

http://wildfiretoday.com/2015/09/10/...on-california/

Main run was on 11 September to the south-south-east. My best estimate is that the fire spread at an average rate of spread of 40-50 m/min. I am not sure what the fire weather was on 11 September or the period of the fire run but it is pretty close to my previous estimate. Fire growth has since slowed in the last two days.

The last fire perimeter was posted at 22:30 on 13 September. I got the data from the California department of forest and fire protection this evening:



I do remember visiting this part of the Sierra Nevadas back in 1997 on a Churchill Fellowship so I am familiar with the fuel types there.

[Tobin]

FYI, for those interested, the GeoMAC wildland fire support website is an excellent reference for tracking the locations and extents of wildfires. I bookmarked it a few years ago when we had all the huge raging fires here in Texas.

http://www.geomac.gov/viewer/viewer.shtml

[Nick Gellie]

FYI, for those interested, the GeoMAC wildland fire support website is an excellent reference for tracking the locations and extents of wildfires. I bookmarked it a few years ago when we had all the huge raging fires here in Texas.

http://www.geomac.gov/viewer/viewer.shtml

Thanks Tobin - I have bookmarked the website. It is good also although the zoom in and zoom out functions are a bit sticky. Interesting that we have to think about wildland fire potentially destroying our wooden instruments made from the very same trees that support fire combustion.

[Tobin]

Yeah, I think the "sticky" phenomenon on their site is due to high viewer traffic right now, slowing down its responsiveness. It's usually much smoother.

[Purdy Bear]

Keeping you all in my thoughts. We do get wildfires here in the UK, Wales had 800 in one month early this year.

[montana]

Living in Montana I know your pain. We've had fire here in the past. Wish you luck.

[k0k0peli]

The best summary of the progression of the Butte fire is in Wildfire today for those of you who are interested:

http://wildfiretoday.com/2015/09/10/...on-california/

This is interesting as a 'historical' view, i.e. it's a couple of days old. Back in the days of the folk tradition it would be wonderful source material for disaster songs. Let's see, what would work here? "The hills are alive / With the sound of helicopters" or maybe "Flash on the mountains, mama / Forest's gonna just explode". I may try to conjure some creativity when my adrenaline levels drop sufficiently.

FYI, for those interested, the GeoMAC wildland fire support website is an excellent reference for tracking the locations and extents of wildfires. I bookmarked it a few years ago when we had all the huge raging fires here in Texas.

http://www.geomac.gov/viewer/viewer.shtml

Excellent. This gives a bit clearer picture than Google Maps.

This has been a fascinating insight into what you have been going through for so many days, and constantly under the threat of very real and life-threatening dangers.

I started this thread both to chronicle my own actions and reactions and to provoke thoughts on what we (the music community) think is important. I've seen threads about downsizing, decluttering. So what do we do when downsizing is immediate and involuntary? I know I have new appreciations. I'll address those in a later post-mortem, likely after we unpack in a week or two. Meanwhile, I'll happily return to nattering about loving and using instruments rather than fretting over what to save and what to abandon.
____________

UPDATE: We are still here and still ready to run. The latest bulletin now on YubaNet says in part, "The decrease in temperature and increase in humidity today will do little to moderate the fire activity. The grass and light fuels will be affected slightly, decreasing their receptiveness to fire brands. The lag time for larger fuels is longer than the effect of the increased humidity and will still readily burn. Due to the drought the brush and trees are at critical fuel moisture levels and will produce large number of fire brands when actively burning. This high number of fire brands will increase the potential for spotting in the lighter fuels, even with higher humidity levels. The fuels and winds have been the main carrier of fire and with the increase in wind the fire has potential to grow to the northeast. Watch for trees near the fires edge for torching and casting embers across the line. Spotting from the brush will be over X mile and from trees up to 1 mile. <snip> The cooler weather will not have a dramatic change in the fire behaver due to the lag time in the heavier fuels. Continue to monitor your surroundings for spot fires."

Winds just picked up with intermittent gusts rustling our surrounding forest and blowing the fire right in our direction but still a few miles away over steep canyons, dry rivers, high ridges, and two 2-or-3-lane highways. Weather Underground shows the prospect of light rain today and a thunderstorm tomorrow, good news unless thunderbolts spark new fires. And the next four days will be MUCH cooler. The forecast is very much a mixed bag. And I only have my second-rate mandolins, guitars, and 'ukes to play! [/me moans pathetically]

I am getting burnt out on fires. But we remain vigilant and poised. And if all else is lost, I still have a harmonica in my pocket and a ribald song in my heart.

[Drew Egerton]

Wishing you good luck k0k0peli, mostly with safety but secondarily in your home and belongings as well.

[Nick Gellie]

UPDATE: We are still here and still ready to run. The latest bulletin now on YubaNet says in part, "The decrease in temperature and increase in humidity today will do little to moderate the fire activity. The grass and light fuels will be affected slightly, decreasing their receptiveness to fire brands. The lag time for larger fuels is longer than the effect of the increased humidity and will still readily burn. Due to the drought the brush and trees are at critical fuel moisture levels and will produce large number of fire brands when actively burning. This high number of fire brands will increase the potential for spotting in the lighter fuels, even with higher humidity levels. The fuels and winds have been the main carrier of fire and with the increase in wind the fire has potential to grow to the northeast. Watch for trees near the fires edge for torching and casting embers across the line. Spotting from the brush will be over X mile and from trees up to 1 mile. <snip> The cooler weather will not have a dramatic change in the fire behaviour due to the lag time in the heavier fuels. Continue to monitor your surroundings for spot fires."

THis is overly pessimistic about fire behaviour in your area. Yes you are in a drought area and both the dead and live fuels are at critical levels. Fire spread is determined by the fuel moisture in the fine fuels - if the dead fine fuel moisture content goes up, fire spread decreases. The fuel moisture content in the coarser woody debris such as logs and fallen branches keep the fire alive overnight when the fire edge goes out.

The cooler weather combined with the increased cloud cover will have a dramatic effect on fire behaviour. If you are working on the fire line one can expect spotting to be of the order of 10-100 yards. If you are back burning from a fire line you can expect spotting particularly if the wind is blowing towards you from the inside of the fire. Medium range spotting over that is unlikely given the humidity conditions. You need to have relative humidity below 30% to have longer range spotting.

I just noticed that the temperature is 17 degrees and the RH is 70% which is what I would expect at 11 pm. It is going to get cooler and moister overnight. At Kokopeli's place it is possibly a bit higher. Another factor is that Kokopelli lives higher up in the mountains (700-800 m) which means the fire weather is even cooler. It does not means he is out of the woods just yet so to speak.

[Clement Barrera-Ng]

I was thinking about this today while listening to the radio about coverage of the fire. The devastation is unprecedented, and I hope you will be safe where you are k0k0peli. If I were in a situation where I need to evacuate, my decision on which instrument to take would be far simpler since I only have a couple of them to grab - my sole mandolin and my wife's banjo. I'd be more concerned what other personal belongings to grab - wedding moments, computers, file servers etc. And I hate to admit it - my old trusted FG160 Yamaha will be left behind - it's just too bulky to lug along.

[k0k0peli]

Nic: My elevation measures as 1070m. A sheriff's mandatory evacuation order from 3 hours ago, "The fire is in the area! Leave the area immediately" covers just 3.5 miles / 5.75 km due south of us. Winds are gusting 3.5-5 mph from SW and WSW. We are probably not in present danger and we *might* get some slight precipitation in about 3.5 hours but until then I'd rather be on the paranoiac side of prudence. I can afford to kick myself tomorrow for being overly paranoid today.

[MikeEdgerton]

It sounds like a good time to treat yourself to a night in a nice hotel room someplace safe.

[k0k0peli]

It sounds like a good time to treat yourself to a night in a nice hotel room someplace safe.

No easy answers here. I won't detail our calculations but they boil down to, "Don't go until necessary." And stormclouds arrived in the last few minutes. Temps have dropped, humidity has jumped, and tonight's threat seems diminished. Believe me, if we get the call, we'll be out of here lickety-split. But we have good reasons to stay until then.

What happens if we get the "Leave immediately!" call? I leap from the sofa, grab our two laptops and their power units, throw them in a nearby messenger bag, then run into the next room to quickly unplug and bag a half-dozen hard drives. I grab three other bags near the back door and toss them into their waiting place in my old Ford Explorer. Time: under 90 seconds. Meanwhile my wife springs from her chair, grabs two bags, her purse, and her tenor 'ukulele near the front door, and slides them into their spots in her Nissan Murano. Time: faster. (If we had to jump from bed we would need a few seconds more to siled into shoes and shirts.) Anyway, we lock the doors behind us, wave at each other, start our engines, and roar off.

Another 90 seconds to drive down our rutted rocky track to pavement (without breaking the suspensions), then 150 seconds to the highway, and we're rolling uphill away from the flames. Time: under six minutes. We will stop at a nearby waypoint to hug each other and make sure our fully-charged TracFones are switched on. Then we head for Nevada a bit over an hour away

And if we get a "Evacuate within the (half) hour" call, then it's the same as above, but not quite so rushed. So the house doesn't stink if it survives, I'll haul the kitchen trash to the outside can. (We don't tempt the neighborhood black bear by leaving garbage available.) I'll slide a few parcels of paintings atop the load in my Ford. I'll send the "We're leaving!" emails in my draft folder to friends and family before packing my ThinkPad. We'll glance around one last time and motor away. Sayonara, baby.

That's where it's at. We continue to closely monitor the situation. We'll jump when it's time.

[bigskygirl]

Why on earth would you want to cut things so close....? I have been near fires and Red Cross shelters and not one person has ever said they wish they had stayed longer.....

You'll do what you want but you're packed and ready to go, just go.

[k0k0peli]

Why on earth would you want to cut things so close....? <snip> You'll do what you want but you're packed and ready to go, just go.

We almost left a few hours ago but the weather has improved. A little rain just fell and there will be more in maybe 1/2 hour and then through the night. We are not willing to run until we need to, and we do not yet need to. We are closely monitoring conditions. We have no desire to cut things close. We'll be gone when ANY warning is issued. We may very likely leave Wednesday when I have an important medical appointment down in the smoke zone -- that will be a good time to keep going. But the time is not yet ripe.

[Purdy Bear]

Keep hanging in there K0K0peli. Please don't leave your evacuation to the warnings given, in some cases they do come way to late for a safe evacuation. Keep your senses peeled, and once that gut feeling tells you to go, don't wait around for a phone call that may never come. If a fire is travelling quickly the broadcast people just can't catch up.

As for long term, seriously think about mitigating the property, I am sure you have heard about this, but just in case others haven't. Even here in the UK I am thinking seriously about it. Mitigation is simply the method of protecting and preparing the property and surrounding area for fire in any way.

The Black Forest Fire and Mitigation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=258&v=40LVOrdmUD8

Community Mitigation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULHdjrY47tM

I live near a large forest and part of the mitigation are huge sand breaks, the width of a road, with large tanks of water as well. when you grow up with that sort of thing about, you get interested in mitigation early on.

[Ellen T]

I haven't been on here in awhile so I was unaware of your dire situation, k0k0pelli. Sending you positive and extremely drenching good thoughts. Reading your posts has had me on the edge of my chair.

Things I would take if I had to evacuate: Difficult because we have one small car, so it would be

family and dog with his supplies
purse/wallets with usual contents
medical stuff (luckily, only a few prescriptions in the entire household)
the flash drives with family pictures and genealogy info
one box of unscanned material
a few pieces of jewelry with sentimental value (and a few hockable pieces, not that I have much)
financial info
insurance info (house and medical)
birth certificates and other vital paperwork
a set each of sturdy clothing/jackets/shoes or boots if not already wearing them, and a change of underwear/socks each
a blanket each
the bottled water that is always in the car
our standard travel box of toiletries and snacks like granola bars
phones & chargers
a crochet hook and ball of yarn for my nerves
my travel tote bag with a few books and favorite CDs and anything that doesn't fit in my large hobo bag purse
my cheap soprano recorder - my mandolin is a Kentucky and could be replaced, the music is more important than the instrument (and frankly, I play the recorder better)
my memories