What are the chances?

[JeffD]

My grandfather passed when I was very young, two or three. I found out about my grandfather's mandolin only after I had been playing a while. I also found out after the fact that he had a very similar job to mine.

[Jim Garber]

My great aunt Rose had a Martin A mandolin. No one in the family ever remembered her playing it, however. I think my cousin has it.

[JeffD]

But I wonder, even those of us who don't know of any musical relative, if we have ancestors that were along the east coast in 1900, or from any of the much more mandocentric countries in the world, there is some chance that there was a mandolinner back there.

So many people played mandolin back "in the day" I would guess there is a fairly good chance.

[Seter]

I emailed my parents to inquire what they they know about my fore-bearers. I know my grandfather played violin, and both my grandmothers played piano, but maybe there were other things and I don't know about my great-grandparents. They were in musical families except for the one grandfather though so we'll see, maybe there was a mandolinist or two in the ranks.

[OldSausage]

If m = number of mandolinists alive in 1900 and a = no. of living ancestors in 1900, a rough way of estimating the odds would be one in

(m / 1.6 billion) * a

(1.6 billion is the global population in 1900)

Assuming I had 24 ancestors alive in 1900 and there were 200,000 mandolinists worldwide, my odds are 1 in 333 of being descended from a mandolinist.

If you want to restrict the geographic area or have different numbers of living ancestors at that time, then adjust the values accordingly.

(Note: I know nothing about statistics or calculating odds, so this could be completely wrong.)

[magictwanger]

My Grandpa was a serious mandolin player.He left me an old,beat to death and dried out Gibson.I donated it to Mandolin Brothers.It was not worth anything in it's state,but I hope someone fixed it up & is enjoying it.....My Grandpa was a "Classic"! When my Grandma passed,he got a job in a local Miami bank,playing mandolin in the lobby.....He suddenly developed "rock star status" with all the old ladies and there was not a week that went by where one of them did not give him their phone number.....True story!

[sblock]

If m = number of mandolinists alive in 1900 and a = no. of living ancestors in 1900, a rough way of estimating the odds would be one in

(m / 1.6 billion) * a

(1.6 billion is the global population in 1900)

Assuming I had 24 ancestors alive in 1900 and there were 200,000 mandolinists worldwide, my odds are 1 in 333 of being descended from a mandolinist.

If you want to restrict the geographic area or have different numbers of living ancestors at that time, then adjust the values accordingly.

(Note: I know nothing about statistics or calculating odds, so this could be completely wrong.)

This calculation assumes "uniform mixing" among the world population, that is, that the chances of the ancestral mandolinist are the same, regardless of where he/she may have lived in the world: in Africa, Asia, Europe, North or South America, and so on. Of course, most of the mandolinists were in Europe or North America at the time, but most of the people lived in Asia (India and China). So the chances of an ancestral mandolinist are actually much higher than this calculation would suggest on its face, if your ancestors lived in Europe or North America.

What this calculation does mostly right, however, is account for the fact that most of us have many ancestors -- perhaps 20 or more! -- who might have been in a position to play the mandolin. Also, a significantly greater fraction of the general population played musical instruments before the advent of radio and TV.

[Jim Garber]

So, what is the difference between a mandolinner, a mandolinist and a mandolin player? I have heard the last two often around here but very few use the first term. JeffD? Care to explain?

[OldSausage]

So, what is the difference between a mandolinner, a mandolinist and a mandolin player? I have heard the last two often around here but very few use the first term. JeffD? Care to explain?

It's a term JeffD made up himself and has been shamelessly promoting on here for years.

[Seter]

So, what is the difference between a mandolinner, a mandolinist and a mandolin player? I have heard the last two often around here but very few use the first term. JeffD? Care to explain?

I believe it is someone who likes to play the potatoes out of a mandolin.

[Willie Poole]

My dad left me a harmonica...Is that close enough?

Aside from Charlie Poole a distant relative I know of no other musicians in my family except for one aunt that played the organ at the local church....

[Hudmister]

Also, a significantly greater fraction of the general population played musical instruments before the advent of radio and TV.

I doubt that this statement is true. What data do you have to support this? I would think the advent of radio and then TV actually led to a significant increase in the number of young people wanting to play an instrument from the big band era forward. A Pete Seeger album led me to nag my mother constantly until she bought me a banjo. What an impact the Beatles had on the number of guitar players in the world is amazing. Bob Dylan led to my first guitar which I still have. I once worked at a small company, fourteen in all, and six of us played the guitar.

[OlDanTucker]

There is a family tradition that my Oma played mandolin in Germany between the wars, but I never heard her do it, or knew what instrument she used. On the other side my Grandfather was an accountant in Virginia in the 1930's and used to get paid in chickens and mandolins and I have an old bowl back from that time. It's not a great instrument. It seems a hundred year old piece of crap instrument is still a piece of crap instrument.

[Jim Garber]

I believe it is someone who likes to play the potatoes out of a mandolin.

Ah, I see. Someone who uses this kind of mandolin.

[Roger Moss]

So, what is the difference between a mandolinner, a mandolinist and a mandolin player? I have heard the last two often around here but very few use the first term. JeffD? Care to explain?

"Ich bin ein Mandolinner."

[MikeEdgerton]

So, what is the difference between a mandolinner, a mandolinist and a mandolin player?

If you can see them it's a mandolinist, if you can hear them they are a mandolin player and if you can smell them they....

[Charlie Bernstein]

. . . We were trying to think of a way to estimate the probability that you, or any of us, are descendant from a mandolinner. . . .

DNA testing for the GGDDAAEE chromosome.

[AndyV]

This calculation assumes "uniform mixing" among the world population, that is, that the chances of the ancestral mandolinist are the same, regardless of where he/she may have lived in the world: in Africa, Asia, Europe, North or South America, and so on. Of course, most of the mandolinists were in Europe or North America at the time, but most of the people lived in Asia (India and China). So the chances of an ancestral mandolinist are actually much higher than this calculation would suggest on its face, if your ancestors lived in Europe or North America.

What this calculation does mostly right, however, is account for the fact that most of us have many ancestors -- perhaps 20 or more! -- who might have been in a position to play the mandolin. Also, a significantly greater fraction of the general population played musical instruments before the advent of radio and TV.

I know that on average people had children at an earlier age in 1900 than now, but I find it hard to imagine having 24 living ancestors at that time, with life expectancy being as low it was.

[OldSausage]

I know that on average people had children at an earlier age in 1900 than now, but I find it hard to imagine having 24 living ancestors at that time, with life expectancy being as low it was.

That depends how many generations separate you from that time. And you know for certain that none of your ancestors died in childhood. Having survived that, even in 1900, their chances of living to a good age were very decent. 24 only means your great grandparents and their parents were alive at that time. Why not? If you are from a younger generation than me, and/or your ancestors had children young, you could have more than 100 ancestors alive in 1900.

[JeffD]

If m = number of mandolinists alive in 1900 and a = no. of living ancestors in 1900, a rough way of estimating the odds would be one in

(m / 1.6 billion) * a

(1.6 billion is the global population in 1900)

Assuming I had 24 ancestors alive in 1900 and there were 200,000 mandolinists worldwide, my odds are 1 in 333 of being descended from a mandolinist.

If you want to restrict the geographic area or have different numbers of living ancestors at that time, then adjust the values accordingly.

(Note: I know nothing about statistics or calculating odds, so this could be completely wrong.)

You can refine those odds a bit if you know, for example, that your ancestors in 1900 were all in Italy. There should be some way of determining the per capita mandolinners in Italy in 1900. Somebody knows this.

[Austin Bob]

You guys are making this way too complicated. The chances of you being a descendant of a mandolin player are 50-50.

Either you are, or you aren't.

[Jim Garber]

If you can see them it's a mandolinist, if you can hear them they are a mandolin player and if you can smell them they....

I think I get it now. I once met a mandolinner—I could tell because I could smell the mandoliniment he used.

[JeffD]

To be honest with you. I didn't make it up. I heard it when I sat in on an old timey jam session, I don't remember where, but it was in the back of a bar.

One fellow said, when I opened my case, "good, another mandolinner joins us."

And it stuck with me.

I think of it like violinist, fiddler : mandolinist, mandolinner.

A mandolinner might spill beer on his instrument. A mandolinist is much more likely to spill wine.

[JeffD]

You guys are making this way too complicated. The chances of you being a descendant of a mandolin player are 50-50.

Either you are, or you aren't.

I think if one is say a full Inuit, the chances are low. Not perhaps 0.00, but pretty low.

[AndyV]

I think if one is say a full Inuit, the chances are low. Not perhaps 0.00, but pretty low.

I think if one is a full Inuit, the chances are high that they just had a high protein meal.