Boomer Bust?

[allenhopkins]

So, antique dealers are finding out what musicians have known forever: it's hard to make a living doing something other people are willing to do for free -- or at least, "for cheap." Club owners who schedule "open mic" nights, instead of hiring bands; event organizers who attract musicians to perform for "exposure," or because it's a "good cause"; venue operators who organize jams, sessions etc. where no one gets paid, but the venue gets an admission charge, sells refreshments, whatever.

None of these people consider that they're scamming musicians, because they find plenty of volunteers eager to participate. Similarly, those who try to make a living buying and selling antiques, are up against part-timers who'll undercut them because they enjoy picking and selling, and just want a few extra bucks to supplement "day jobs." And, the antique owners themselves, who go on eBay or Craigslist and sell below the retail market, driving down prices for all dealers.

The one thing that you don't get is the professionalism of either the working musicians, or the established, experienced, reputable dealers. What's that worth? More to some, less to others. Makes the whole "industry," music performance or antique sales, a bit frustrating at times.

[varmonter]

" Someone hit the big time.They figured it out.
That we're gonna do it anyway.even if it doesn't pay." Gillian Welch

[Verne Andru]

Back in the '70's I could do a gig with a group and expect to come away with $100 for the night.

Today, a buddy of mine still gigs and he's still getting $100 for a night.

Used to be you'd tour to promote your album/cd/whatever.

Today's artists have to tour because that's the only way left to make any money.

One step forward, three steps back IMHO.

[Jim Garber]

To that point, this is from Happy Traum's book "Bluegrass Guitar" (Oak, 1974): "Pre-war Martins are reputed to have been made with more care, better wood, and have the time to age and mellow through the years. A good 40-year-old Dreadnaught can fetch as much as $2,500 these days."

$2,500 in 1974 is $12,300 in 2017. I don't think you can come across a prewar dreadnaught for anywhere near that these days.

Yes, a pre-war Martin dreadnaught will be pretty pricey but a 40 year old Martin today would have been made in 1977 and probably would go for that same price ($2,500). I am not sure what that all means but interesting use of words.

[Charlieshafer]

So, antique dealers are finding out what musicians have known forever: it's hard to make a living doing something other people are willing to do for free -- or at least, "for cheap." Club owners who schedule "open mic" nights, instead of hiring bands; event organizers who attract musicians to perform for "exposure," or because it's a "good cause"; venue operators who organize jams, sessions etc. where no one gets paid, but the venue gets an admission charge, sells refreshments, whatever.

None of these people consider that they're scamming musicians, because they find plenty of volunteers eager to participate. Similarly, those who try to make a living buying and selling antiques, are up against part-timers who'll undercut them because they enjoy picking and selling, and just want a few extra bucks to supplement "day jobs." And, the antique owners themselves, who go on eBay or Craigslist and sell below the retail market, driving down prices for all dealers.

The one thing that you don't get is the professionalism of either the working musicians, or the established, experienced, reputable dealers. What's that worth? More to some, less to others. Makes the whole "industry," music performance or antique sales, a bit frustrating at times.

Well, this is a subject for a different thread, but I'll disagree to a point. The types of venues have changed, but a solid musician can still do fine. If this gets a different thread started, I'll be happy to elaborate.

[Andy B]

I have noticed the same phenomenon that Verne refers to above: when I started playing shows back in the second half of the 70s, $100 per band member for the night was a good night. 40 years later that same $100 per band member is still a good night, but it doesn't go nearly as far as it did then. I am glad I decided to do something else for a living; I like to eat every day.

[Charlie Bernstein]

. . . But nearly every picker I know(and myself) has purchased an Asian made mass produced model out of economic necessity. I don't think tastes are changing, just give it 30 or 40 years for us to age into disposable income :^)

And if any of your peers are interested in keeping their duccats out of Pacific rim sweat shops, remind them that there are some affordable makers US and Canada. All-solid-wood flattop mandos are available from Redline and Big Muddy, for instance. (I have a Big Muddy.)

Great electric guitars come from Godin and a lot of smaller shops. (My next electric will probably be a Godin, the best-kept electric guitar company in North American.)

Prices on Godin's acoustic companies, including Seagull and Art & Lutherie. Larrivee is another highly-regarded maker with some nice prices.

Or do what I usually do: Buy used instruments. If you buy 'em in the USA, every dollar lands in the USA.

[Charlieshafer]

While I agree with the sentiment, look at the number of posts by newcomers here that are looking for a starter/intro mandolin for under $500. Eastman and some others can fit that bill, while the domestic ones can't. I'd much rather have more people start out and then move up than not be able to start out at all.

[Br1ck]

I live in a hundred year old house, with a bunch of 70 to eighty year old furniture, including a 1930s philco radio and a 1920s piano. I remodeled the kitchen and bathroom to look old, with real bead board and ship lap ceilings. Bought one repro light fixture. Every other ceiling light is vintage twenties or thirties. I just, and the other half more so, like old stuff. Many of my boomer contemporaries don't. Some like ultra modern.


This aesthetic carries over to guitars, though I can only afford forty year old guitars. My number one is a 1965 Epiphone Texan that is, shall we say, worn. I'm a believer in age and playing as a tone enhancer. All things equal I'd rather have a mandolin with honest dings and play wear over new and shiny. My Silverangel that is pre aged works for me. I never want to be in fear of playing out with an instrument.

I think there is a whole lot of validity to the thought that as boomers die, with a few exceptions, prices will drop. When the Chinery collection was liquidated after his death, prices suffered due to the glut on the market as there were so many available collectors items. if you multiply that by many more estate sales, its not hard to invision a market drastically correcting.

We boomers had school music programs to foster interest. That has changed, and fewer musicians need fewer instruments.

[mandroid]

Maybe there can be a Reverse Mortgage type income for people interested in us old folk's instruments ..

.. to be left them in our will , and helping us out in our declining years in the near time..

[catmandu2]

We boomers had school music programs to foster interest. That has changed, and fewer musicians need fewer instruments.

FWIW, my kids got band starting in 5th grade (last year) - the same grade I started band in 1970. (This year my daughter's moving from alto to bari sax - she started on clarinet; she's using all my instruments - I'm so proud...and we didn't have to buy anything ). My kids' school doesn't provide much 'art' however.

Are there many districts not providing band? - Would like to know.

[Charlieshafer]

I think band is still big, think of all the football teams that need cheering on. String programs are suffering here and there, though...

[catmandu2]

Ours probably isn't typical - we get strings too, and choir - which my son does.

[Jess L.]

... We boomers had school music programs to foster interest. ...

Some boomers did. Some didn't.

Regional differences.

What I saw was that, early on, school music programs were completely eliminated because the school levies (funding) kept getting voted down by the taxpayers. This affected an entire county.

(Note: This is not "political". Merely polite, non-rabble-rousing observations relevant to the OP topic. Some background for clarification.)

The reason behind the school levy failures, was because if the levy had passed, there would have been an increase in homeowners' property taxes (which helped fund schools), and the majority of voters quite clearly did not want higher taxes (this was *way* before real-estate prices got ran up so high, taxation based on valuation which back then was quite low) nor did they want to feel that the schools were "wasting money on someone else's kids" (I heard that phrase a lot). So the majority voted "no" on each and every school levy that came up for a vote.

It wasn't just music programs that got de-funded. The schools' management also eliminated Auto Shop, and Basic Electronics (where students learned how to solder and do stuff with circuit boards), and they also eliminated the Drafting class (elsewise known as Mechanical Drawing) as well as Architectural Drawing classes and other 'vocational' type of classes.

The only programs that did not get cut were (1) "Home Ec", for the girls so they could learn to cook and sew -- seriously, and (2) football. Go figure.

But they even got rid of band class. No music whatsoever.

If those kids wanted music education, they had to get it at home, for those who were lucky enough to have someone around who already played an instrument.

So I guess to bring this back around to the original topic, as others have already mentioned it's hard to generalize about boomers. Some boomers were in the 'right place at the right time', others less so, as far as economic advantages (and hence the ability, or not, to drive up vintage instrument prices).

(My observations are from a U.S. point of view, I don't know how schools are funded in other nations. Come to think of it, I also don't know if the whole idea of 'boomers' is strictly a US thing, or elsewhere too? Has that been mentioned and I just missed it? Will have to look it up someday I guess.)

[Mandobart]

...We boomers had school music programs to foster interest. That has changed, and fewer musicians need fewer instruments.

I had orchestra, symphonic band, marching band, jazz band, choir and drama club. We also had auto shop, wood shop, metal shop, jewelry making, art and more. All this in the 70's in public school in one of the poorest states in the US (NM). My kids, fairly recent grads from a mid-sized town in WA, had orchestra, symphonic band, marching band, jazz band, choir and drama club as well, but none of the industrial arts in their public schools. There are still lots of musicians - we aren't some rare and precious breed. When 5 or 10% of a big demographic started buying musical instruments of course the market resonded. When that demographic dies out the market will adjust. Believe it or not life and music will go on when all of us boomers are gone.

[Jess L.]

... There are still lots of musicians - we aren't some rare and precious breed. ...

Lol yeah that's true.

An old friend of mine, a former private music-teacher for decades, has always maintained:

"There are way too many musicians in the world."

Always seemed kinda odd to me that a music teacher would complain about too many musicians, since he was contributing to the situation by helping to create more of them.

I've never got a straight answer from him as to exactly what he means by that, but I figure he's probably referring to those who he considers to be 'bad' musicians, he has a strange and rather snarky sense of humor sometimes. But, some of his former students have went on to have highly successful music careers, so maybe he has some bias there.

Personally, I don't categorize *musicians* as 'good' or 'bad', I figure if people are playing *something* (anything, whatever type), even if it's 'only' a kazoo, it's serving a useful purpose of some sort and probably helping to cheer other people up via some cool grooves or whatever.

[pops1]

I think a lot of things back then depended on how large you school was. We had less than 150 in grades 9-12. We did have band and art, band was subsidized by the parents having bake sales and fund raisers. Baseball was a summer sport that was not affiliated with the school. Basketball of course had plenty of money for new uniforms and busing both girls and boys to away games. We had shop, but no auto shop, no electronics, no metal shop. It was basic, but we had music and about 30 of the -150 were in band some in chorus too. Some larger schools had track, football, wrestling etc. We weren't big enough to fund or have enough students to be able to do all that.

In Europe sports are separate from the school, and paid for by the parents. Club sports I believe. For me if the school has no money for band and art, they shouldn't be able to spend the large amount they do on sports. I grew up being taught "it's not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game" I hear parents and coaches now saying to kids who lost a game " YOU'RE LOSER'S, YOU'RE LOSER'S". Somehow doesn't seem right to me to take away something as special as music and art, and then not teach good sportsmanship,and demoralize the poor kids when they don't win. Sorry rant over.

[Verne Andru]

Don't forget, boomers grew up during the rock and roll era when guitar was king and there was some mystique to the guitar-slinger.

I could argue (rhetorically) there isn't a single "real" instrument in much of the "popular" music today - goes along with lip-syncing, etc. - so there isn't that same drive in the up-and-comers to learn to play when everything they like is electronic. I know guys who learned to play just so they could get the girls - even those dynamics have changed

I was fortunate to have Gar Gilles as an electronics teacher in grade 10. He was the guy who made Garnet amps for acts like the Guess Who, who were a hometown band at that time.

Times have certainly changed.

[Caleb]

Genuinely interesting thread here.

Discussions like these always remind me of a line from C.S. Lewis's THAT HIDEOUS STRENGTH: "I happen to believe that you cannot study men. You can only get to know them, which is quite a different thing."

I'm a Gen-Xer (42) and don't necessarily fit into the usual trends of my generation. While I enjoy history (reading about it and going to historical sites), I would rather have a new instrument than an old one. I honestly believe what makers like Collings et al are putting out today is more desirable (to me anyway) than the older stuff. I don't understand the lure of the Loar.

And I would rather have a personal history with an instrument than borrow someone else's personal history with one. So I don't get too excited about getting new stuff (MAS/GAS), but I would rather have owned the same stuff for a long time and have stories to tell about it all.

My life philosophy is "Find what works and stick with it." So I would rather own fewer things of quality than more things of lesser quality. I loathe clutter and find it very destructive. But being surrounded by a few things that work well and enhance life is a very positive thing.

[Astro]

I think this same scary trend could apply to the second home market, mountain houses ect., as well as to the stock market as boomers readjust their asset allocation and shift out to shorter term or safer investments.

As for the 25-35 yr olds we thought would replace us, I do perceive a paradigm shift in work ethic which could further highlight this bust trend. Instead of jumping on the hamster wheel and working the grind now to one day have the "American Dream" we felt compelled to chase, they are more inclined to put life experience first and live like they're semi retired now in their younger years and worry about working harder later. "I'll work harder when I get old and can't ski/surf/hike/travel anymore".

And now that I'm still on the wheel and see the "healthy years" closing fast, I'm not so sure they aren't right.

I think part of our MAS is to make up for some part of dissatisfaction we have in life from the delayed gratification (in life experience) that we got so good at because we were taught it was the right way to live. So we get some instant gratification from that "purdy" object we crave to somewhat make up for it.

Again I'm exaggerating to make a point and over generalizing here and I have no regrets about my hamster wheel, but there may be a little something to that big-general-partial- truth trend wise too.

[pops1]

Many years ago I was in Mexico and met folks traveling. Those from Germany, when they are out of school and before going to work for their career, get a year to travel paid for by their employer. It was found that this made for better workers after the year of enjoyment. They also get a month off every year as this was also found to improve productivity. Seems like we could learn something here, this was nearly 40 years ago and they had it figured out then.

[sbhikes]

I'm 52 and identify with Generation X. I ended up buying a new instrument simply because I mostly care about how it sounds and the easiest way to compare the sound is to go to a store that has a lot of mandolins. The store I went to had some used and lots new. There was even a really expensive antique but I didn't dare try it since I don't feel worthy of anything like that. It should go to either a true talent or a collector, not to someone like me who will break it putting the strings on wrong. So I didn't try out the precious antique but I tried everything else, new and used, and ended up with a new one just because I liked it best of all. I have a ton of money ripe for the spending, but have mostly wasted it buying handpans (look it up if you want to fall into a brand new rabbit hole).

[JeffD]

I am sympathetic to the idea of the best tool for the job. And sometimes, historical mojo aside, the best tool for the job is a vintage mandolin. Because it is a good and proven design, among other reasons.

Sometimes it is a modern make. For a whole lot of reasons.

The attractiveness of "vintage" mojo is perhaps not the only reason to consider a vintage instrument, and maybe even not the best reason.

[Tobin]

As for the 25-35 yr olds we thought would replace us, I do perceive a paradigm shift in work ethic which could further highlight this bust trend. Instead of jumping on the hamster wheel and working the grind now to one day have the "American Dream" we felt compelled to chase, they are more inclined to put life experience first and live like they're semi retired now in their younger years and worry about working harder later. "I'll work harder when I get old and can't ski/surf/hike/travel anymore".

And now that I'm still on the wheel and see the "healthy years" closing fast, I'm not so sure they aren't right.

I'll just go ahead and say I'm pretty sure they're wrong. Remember the ant and the grasshopper? Yeah. The younger generation today, if internet articles are to be believed, are happily living life without a thought for their future. They're going to be pretty disappointed when they get older and realize they can never stop working because they squandered all their earnings on experiences instead of nest eggs. It's so tempting when you're young to think there's plenty of time later. I don't know how it's going to turn out for them, but the signs don't look good.

[Jeff Mando]

..... but have mostly wasted it buying handpans (look it up if you want to fall into a brand new rabbit hole).

I looked up handpans --very cool -- similar to what we called Trinidad steel drums 50 years ago, and played with the hands instead of mallets.