So what is the "real" value of a Loar in today's world?

[Gary Hedrick]

I am guessing that they have exchanged hands in the range of 100 to 140K with cash and trade instruments. BUT what do I know? It is a simple matter of no one who is a direct party to these trades will tell us because they want the "established" value to be that much higher amount. Much like the late Stan Jay did in the 80's and 90's. Price the heck out of it in the advertising and then that price eventually becomes the reality that sticks in everyone's head.

[Jeff Mando]

I would say it is a "specialty market" that is controlled by a select few, who can afford to keep the prices artificially high for the benefit of the hobby and also their investment. This happens in other fields, as well -- fine art, diamonds, Duesenberg autos, Stradivari, even real estate. On my street alone there are six houses for sale that have been for sale over a year, some over two years, all priced within a few thousand dollars of each other. At a true auction, they would only bring a 1/3 to half of their asking price, because that is all a dealer (house flipper) would pay as a safe investment to resell--but few are willing to sell that cheap because they have their life savings invested. In the case of a Loar, it is hard to say what one would bring at true auction, hypothetically speaking, it may bring half or somebody may step up and pay full retail or more -- not that anybody would risk a Loar at a no-reserve auction. There is also a such thing as a motivated buyer. As my buddy who owned a vintage guitar shop would say, "They had it priced where I had to buy it!"

[Jeff Mando]

I am guessing that they have exchanged hands in the range of 100 to 140K with cash and trade instruments.

That is a good point about trade. In the hobby of record collecting, about 25 years ago, a certain 45 "sold" for over $10K, which was a record (pun intended) at that time and the seller (dealer) got a lot of mileage out of it in his advertising, etc. Turns out nobody handed him a briefcase with $10K in it, he took a used car, records, and some cash as part of the trade..........

[Timbofood]

The thing is what they are offered for and what they might really sell for are not always the same. So, the original question will remain unanswered. Unless it becomes a published price.
I'm not sure I'd tell what I paid anyway. For what it's worth, I don't have one, don't bother robbing the joint.

[kudzugypsy]

here is my take on this fwiw:
i don't own a Loar (i passed up my shot at one back when they were $20k!) but like most that have been around a few decades have followed the market - i do have investment experience and feel that Loars, as mentioned earlier - are no different than any other "controlled market" - in that you have a small number of people who own and sell Loars that need the appearance of a healthy future appreciation when i don't see one from my vantage.
these prices you see listed are extremely optimistic and more for keeping the market up than actual selling prices - a good many Loar owners who are players bought these back in the 70's-90's when they were expensive but not out of reach for a dedicated buyer. since the early 2000's this has been a speculators market and i remember Loars hitting the market and immediately being sold. there were "standing offers" for $125K from one collector for anything that came his way (i think he accumulated 6 during this time). the entire run up in value was driven, imo, from the easy money coming from the real estate market - people cashing in on home appreciation prices, taking the appreciation in refinancing and playing the market or getting in vintage instruments, along with year over year percentage jumps in prices and people had the easy money to pounce on them. those days are GONE and they are not coming back...$165k is now REAL money, not something you pulled out of your home value. on the other side, people who have that kind of money (unless its from a windfall inheritance or whatever) are not dumb - they don't drop $175k into something that isn't going UP...and the trend is not your friend in Loar values - it will be a LOONNNG time before we see 2008 prices again - i think never, it was an economic fluke. i had more than one dealer say back in the heyday they were going to $350k in a few years and i was very suspicious of that. the claim kept being made about Strad violins but to me its not even a close analogy for many reasons i wont elaborate on...
No you wont see Loars for $20k anytime soon, but i do think they will settle in the $75-100K range with excellent examples going for more, or moving quickly. if the market is HOT and you know you can buy an investment for $150K+ and sell it in 2 years for $250k its a no-brainer...thats what was going on then - you have the opposite now - even a "deal" of $150k only looks that way when looking back to 2008 - if you count inflation and the time cost of money invested in something that actually goes up - you see a different picture. all i see are Loars accumulating with consigned dealers (at a nice % commission charge) - we will only know when some of the big auction houses have some go through and prices are black & white cold cash. also a lot of these bought as alternative 401K retirement investments are going to need to be sold in the near future for cash, not trade.

[Spruce]

....it will be a LOONNNG time before we see 2008 prices again - i think never, it was an economic fluke.

I think I would take that bet...
And--for the sake of the economy and the country--I hope I'm right...

[kudzugypsy]

I think I would take that bet...
And--for the sake of the economy and the country--I hope I'm right...

agree on the economy...but i have been hearing this for the last 8 years (which is hardly a blimp of time)...i could agree with the mindset things were so bad in 2008-10 that it was possible to say when the economy recovers then the prices will recover - but that was 8 years and a recovery ago and supply is 'plentiful' yet buyers aren't. 15 Loars for sale is 10% of the known total out there. add to that these are the lowest interest rates in history and people have money sitting in CDs and money markets making less than 1% and they still don't pull out and buy...historically...if you had a near 0% return on your money, you would justify and pull it out and put it somewhere to get something...i would rather be playing a Loar for example than get $300 a year in interest @ .25% on $150k. that tells me the market is overvalued - safe cash is king right now.

[Jeff Mando]

Like I say, you gotta buy right and get your profit on the "front end" by negotiating. It amazing me that people are so fond of paying retail -- I like a bargain -- I try to NEVER pay retail -- kind of hard to do on utilities, food, and gasoline, but on instruments -- NOT SO HARD -- they are subject to dickering! I'm not in the market right now, but I know if there are 15 Loars for sale that somebody is motivated to take less.......stands to reason -- too much competition, right now. Somebody wants to cash out. Who says you have to buy from a vintage dealer? If you find out who owns it and deal direct, you have just saved enough to buy a nice used car or boat! Not hard to find out this info. I've done A LOT of negotiating in my life and what amazes me is HOW OFTEN a phone car will save you thousands of dollars and tell you EXACTLY where the person is coming from and their hopes for a sale. A lot of these deals can be cash plus trade, for example. OR, the seller may need a down payment on a property they are hoping to purchase. Often they will tell you in so many words exactly what they need. You have to be attuned to understanding it. The old phrase "money talks" is still true. It works on $1000 instruments and $175K instruments. (hint, I rarely would pay more than $500 for a $1000 instrument, and prefer to pay much less -- you do the math on a Loar.) Whatever you put into the negotiation as far as time, research, phone calls, offers, etc., will pay off huge in savings. IT WOULD SURPRISE YOU to know how much negotiation goes on at vintage shops. Not everyone who comes in is Chris Thile or some rock star with unlimited $$$, most sales are to average people who have always wanted one and figured a way to get it. So yeah, at $175K it is not an investment that I think will grow rapidly, but if you can buy right, a signed Loar will always be safe money, IMHO.

[re simmers]

The last 8 years, the price of most rare collectables, like good furniture has dropped or stayed level (in the mid-Atlantic area). I assume most of the price of a Loar is the collectable/investment part. It will definitely come back, but it won't be soon. This is a volatile economy, and most people are hesitant to pay top dollar. I agree there's probably a good bit of dickering on prices for a Loar.

[Timbofood]

The real value is ONLY determined when one is bought or sold. Until one sells there is no way to make a blanket "price". What one expects and what is finally paid may be very different numbers.
I knew a guy who had a "Patek Phillippe" wristwatch, stainless steel, no one he knew had ever seen one like it, he felt that it was worth a serious load of money but, until it sells, there is NO way to estimate its value. So there's my view.
I ain't buyin' nor sellin' by the way.

[goaty76]

The real value is ONLY determined when one is bought or sold. Until one sells there is no way to make a blanket "price". What one expects and what is finally paid may be very different numbers.

I own a good number of instruments that really have no current market value. It's not that aren't worth anything but they are so rare there are no trends or past sales to go by. One of them, which is kinda "Loar-ish" if that's a word, is one of only two publicly known examples. George Gruhn has the other in his personal collection hanging outside his office. I'm waiting for the day when Gruhn eventually sells his to see what mine is worth. Till then I'll just go with the guesstimate of what I think the value is.

Phil

[Timbofood]

People used to come in and ask me (in the jewelry business) "Is gold up or down?" My normal answer was "Yep"
You have the right concept as far as I'm concerned, Phil. What one person has may be worth a fortune to him but, as far as "comparable street value"? With nothing to base comparison on its pretty hard to determine values.
I have a "custom" 1919 MB3 but, for reasons discussed on other threads ad nauseum is either worth a fortune (did I say it's a mandolin banjo!) or basically worth boo.

[Jeff Mando]

It was mentioned you could "park" your money in a Loar, rather than in some other place -- bank, investment portfolio, ira, etc., since accounts aren't paying much these days and you could have the benefit of owning and playing a Loar around the house. Again, I think it is safe money to do that, but certainly not an investment that will grow. And, needless to say, there is risk -- not only of the marketplace, but actual risk of dropping it, theft, etc. I think the people who benefited from Loar pricing were those who bought 40 years ago and kept it or those who inherited great grampa's Loar and received the benefit of the windfall. In my opinion, if you are 50-70 years old, there isn't enough time to see Loar prices jump significantly, if you buy in now. But, certainly a great thing to own, if you don't mind breaking even.

[Northwest Steve]

Does anybody have any thoughts on how much the value of the instrument would increase depending on the prior owner? Such as Chris Thiele, John Reichman, David Grisman or the like?

[JeffD]

Does anybody have any thoughts on how much the value of the instrument would increase depending on the prior owner? Such as Chris Thiele, John Reichman, David Grisman or the like?

I guess one way to figure that out is to ask yourself, how much more above reasonable expected value, percentage wise, would you be willing to pay for a mandolin previously owned by one of our heroes. 10, 20, 25% more?

[FLATROCK HILL]

Does anybody have any thoughts on how much the value of the instrument would increase depending on the prior owner? Such as Chris Thiele, John Reichman, David Grisman or the like?

My thoughts are that John Reischman's mandolin, should it come up for sale would command a premium price. Not because of who owned it, but because of what it is. Special, even by Loar standards.

[PVia]

Thile and others have had to do major work to their Loars before they had them playing the way they wanted, i.e., intonation. That would have to be added in to the decision as well.

I played a Loar recently here in LA, but it was impossible to hear what it would have sounded like with a proper setup, etc...the dealer wouldn't let me adjust a thing (understandably because it was on consignment and he was treating it with kid gloves...) but a little bridge action adjustment and changing the strings would have gone a long way in determining it's potential...they were asking 150k.

I personally believe that the current prices (175k) for most of the instruments out there is ridiculously high, but dealers are willing to sit on these until that ONE buyer comes along who HAS to have it...

I think that Loars realistically should be priced closer to a third of their asking prices...

Almost no one except Thile has purchased a vintage instrument at anywhere near current asking prices....look at Mike Marshall, Dave Grisman, Tony Rice...alll got their instruments for $600 or so...

Although these fellas are considered the top of the game in the players world, NONE of them could afford today's prices...

Everybody thinks that players like Rice, etc are worth a fortune...just not so.

[Hendrik Ahrend]

...look at Mike Marshall, Dave Grisman, Tony Rice...alll got their instruments for $600 or so...

Although these fellas are considered the top of the game in the players world, NONE of them could afford today's prices...

Everybody thinks that players like Rice, etc are worth a fortune...just not so.

$ 600? Hold your horses! Reischman paid about 8k in the early 80s. Grisman I don't know, but I'm guessing around 20k, big money back then.
I'd pay extra for those big name mandos, mainly because they are among the best instruments (if I had the $$, and they were available).

[Gary Hedrick]

That figure of $8k would be about right for early '80's. I paid $7.2k in 1984 for mine. (My former Loar that is)

[Steve Ostrander]

A future cologne booth at IBMA........not.

I'm going to market Loar "tone balls" made out of dryer lint Who wants in?

[JAK]

What about Bill Monroe's F5 Gibson Loar that sold for $1.2 million? If Bill hadn't owned it, it would be down in the $175K range today. That Loar definitely increased in price because of who owned it (Mr. Bill).

[Jeff Mando]

Monroe would be the closest thing "we" have to a Hendrix or Clapton, whose instruments have sold in that price range. Although, that market was controlled by a single buyer with unlimited funds, buying for museum display (and probably a tax write-off). Hard to say, what a true value is...........

I'm guessing a Marilyn Monroe owned Loar (if one existed) would go for similar money, but would it be for the "right" reasons?

[Canoedad]

What about Bill Monroe's F5 Gibson Loar that sold for $1.2 million? If Bill hadn't owned it, it would be down in the $175K range today. That Loar definitely increased in price because of who owned it (Mr. Bill).

Or perhaps if Bill hadn't owned it, its value would be around $35,000 today. (Wait for it ...)

[f5loar]

Loars are like most other "collectibles". Price is related to condition,condition and condition. When a Loar has "issues" that top end price starts to go down according to what "issues" it has. The one for $75K does seem to have a lot of "issues" but I bet it sounds just fine. The other pricing factor is what the owner has in it and how bad he needs the cash right now. How low can they go? Depends on how close their home is to being sold on the court house steps. There was a time back in 2006 when the price of a Loar was equal to the price of a really nice house. Have you priced a house for sale lately? I doubt many of us could sell our homes for the property tax value we pay the taxes on it each year. And I wouldn't be using the Monroe Loar as a benchmark for "added value" over who owns it now. There was and there will only be one Bill Monroe in our lifetime. And after Jan. 21st it's possible the price of a "The Loar" will be going way up!

[f5loar]

Or perhaps if Bill hadn't owned it, its value would be around $35,000 today. (Wait for it ...)

If Bill hadn't owned that Loar, and it had gone through the same wear and tear, it would have been thrown in a trash can, because I doubt seriously anyone would step up to put it back together after being turned into firewood sticks with a fire poker.