View Full Version : Loar prices tanking with home prices?
f5loar
Mar-08-2008, 11:11pm
Seems I predicted this 6 months ago it would happen and today I see Gruhn has a really nice all original '24 Virzi Loar for a mere $150,000. Anybody know the story and why such a low price? Either it's a real dog or the seller ask Gruhn for a low price to move it quick. During this upcoming(or is it here?)recession I expect to see many "self forced" sales of high end collectibles. Many using the cash to keep their homes from being repossesed.
Now I'm not saying $150,000 is a cheap price but if the downward trend continues it will allow those that can afford them which more than likely will be collectors you will see Loars headed towards obscurity landing in vaults which will make them go up in price when the economy returns to normal growth.
Glassweb
Mar-08-2008, 11:53pm
Now I'm not saying $150,000 is a cheap price but if the downward trend continues it will allow those that can afford them which more than likely will be collectors you will see Loars headed towards obscurity landing in vaults which will make them go up in price when the economy returns to normal growth.
Say what?! I'm not quite sure what track you're on here Tom, but I'll only speak about the F5 at Gruhn's. I haven't seen or played this mandolin in person, so I have no idea how it sounds. But just looking at the pictures and reading the description make me think that the asking price isn't all that depressed. Virzi, obvious finish wear, some French polish etc... I don't know... 150 seems low, but not all that low. As we've seen with Loar sales during the past year, the really clean, all original instruments continue to bring record prices. I'm sure if you were to dangle a nice side-bound July 9th or a super-clean Fern Loar out there in the market it would still fetch a record price... even with the recession. Unless the economy really tanks I see vintage American strings continuing their upward trend... although a chill is certainly in the air.
f5loar
Mar-09-2008, 1:18am
I'm saying this is the begining of the freeze and George is paving the way. This mandolin shouldn't have been less than $175,000 on a cold day. Wear? Heck you pay $6000 extra to get Gibson to put that kind of natural wear on one. Virzi? Some great sounding Virzis are out of that March 31th batch.
If the mandolin is really under priced, I would think a consortium could be gotten, together 15 people to invest $10,000 each, for a quick 16% return. Many folks invest that much in equities that return much less.
kudzugypsy
Mar-09-2008, 8:46am
i saw that last week on gruhns site and thought the same thing tom.
the problem right now is CREDIT - i dont care how much money you have, pulling $150-$250K out in CASH these days just aint so smart - and even the people with available credit lines arent going to tap into them, and you can forget loans these days. thats is what is stalling the market in ALL collectibles - it was real easy to justify these purchases when they were going up 25-20% a year, but i think those days are over, and like the housing situation, its gonna take YEARS for this stuff to work its way back to normal. i really think we will see prices fall or at least stay where they are (and get reduced by inflation) for the next few years.
what drove these prices up and up was home refinancing and credit lines, (ie easy money) - there is no doubt about that - so i dont see any upside in the vintage market for a while. of course, as was noted, the really premium stuff will still move - but really, that is so small a percentage of instruments - Loars, clean 30's D-28s/D18s and RB flatheads - that those are somewhat immune to most economic conditions.
Glassweb
Mar-09-2008, 9:06am
Wear? Heck you pay $6000 extra to get Gibson to put that kind of natural wear on one. Virzi? Some great sounding Virzis are out of that March 31th batch.
I agree with you on these points, but don't you think MOST grassers consider the Virzi to be a huge detraction from the F5 sound?
evanreilly
Mar-09-2008, 11:01am
I think the days of thinking of it as the Virzi 'Tone Reducer' are way over. I doubt that anyone nowadays would take one out of any mandolin.
Just because Bill didn't have one in #73987 is no longer the prevalent image/ideal.
Just my $.0125....
I think that particular March 31 has just suffered from over-exposure. I'm informed from a source I trust it's a very nice one. I could understand people being "jittery" about it from the investment angle, just about the only ones really pushing the envelope have been mint/perfect/great examples. Is
It's really easy to pick on a particular instrument as indicative of the entire market, but that's not valid. There are some very clear problems in the general well-being of the economy etc, and I'm sure those will affect spending cash
jk245
Mar-09-2008, 11:57am
Considering the cost of a "basic" professional violin costing $125,000 up, a fine quality wooden acoustic instrument, like a mandolin, costing over that price is fair to the market. Of course there is a greater demand for a lesser number of violins (by percentage of players to instruments), than there is to the mandolin market.
markishandsome
Mar-09-2008, 12:41pm
it will allow those that can afford them which more than likely will be collectors you will see Loars headed towards obscurity landing in vaults which will make them go up in price when the economy returns to normal growth.
I don't get it. Prices go down, so only investor-collectors will be able to afford them? That seems completely backwards. I would think lower prices would make these more accessible to average folk without a lot of real estate or stock holdings.
MikeEdgerton
Mar-09-2008, 3:19pm
Even if it drops to $100,000.00 there will be nothing average about the purchaser.
f5loar
Mar-09-2008, 3:35pm
You got that right. That's why we are in a pickle with the economy now. Interest rates came down to where more people could get into owning a home and now that's reversed. Homes were overvalued and people borrowed against them and now that the value has lowered they are out of a home and the investors are jumping in to get richer of the poor who couldn't afford their homes. You got the average mandolin picker that couldn't get a new Gibson MM. Those that want more usually have to borrow and that easy money is so tight now the only easy money you could get would be a credit card at 22%. I tell how bad the credit card companies are being hit, they have been sending to my house new credit applications to my Ex wife of 15 years ago. That's pretty hard up if they have to dig back in their records for people who moved 15 years ago. Hey Dan does this one have more photos in the archives? I've not heard the serial number yet.
Even if it drops to $100,000.00 there will be nothing average about the purchaser.
In the prestige art and real estate market the big buyers are not Americans. Rather, they are foreigners who enjoy the benefit of the low cost US Dollar. The Euro conversion to the USD is now at 1.53 (0.652); only five years ago it was at par. Therefore, a $100,000 instrument five years ago now cost them $65,200.
Hey Dan does this one have more photos in the archives? I've not heard the serial number yet.
March 31, 1924 #75812 (http://www.mandolinarchive.com/perl/show_mando.pl?213)
markishandsome
Mar-09-2008, 5:43pm
Is that the lowest # Virzi? Cool.
Interest rates came down to where more people could get into owning a home and now that's reversed. Homes were overvalued and people borrowed against them and now that the value has lowered they are out of a home and the investors are jumping in to get richer of the poor who couldn't afford their homes. You got the average mandolin picker that couldn't get a new Gibson MM.
I think it's a little sick to compare a perceived dip in value of your quarter-million dollar mandolin to people loosing their homes. You'll get your money back eventually. I'm sure lots of folks who've been hit this year will never own their own house again. Try counting your blessings instead of your dollars. No offense meant. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
A $100,000 Loar for sale? Is there such a thing?
Yep, mine. Email for details, aniederland@yahoo.com
MikeEdgerton
Mar-09-2008, 5:54pm
In the prestige art and real estate market the big buyers are not Americans. Rather, they are foreigners who enjoy the benefit of the low cost US Dollar. The Euro conversion to the USD is now at 1.53 (0.652); only five years ago it was at par. Therefore, a $100,000 instrument five years ago now cost them $65,200.
A person that buys a $65,000.00 Loar isn't your average mandolin buyer either.
re simmers
Mar-09-2008, 7:30pm
Loars are like land.....they won't be making any more of it! Housing IS tanking, but land is not tanking nearly as much. And neither are Loars. The buyers are NOT your average mandolin players anymore. I will never be able to afford a Loar, but they've got to be a better investment than anything else right now.
The economy really doesn't affect those with the ability to spend $150,000 on a Ferrari, Loar, etc. People with that kind of cash available for luxury items always have expendable money to part with and always will...
markishandsome
Mar-09-2008, 7:46pm
Oh I don't know. Some people will always have the money for a Loar, barring anything truly disastrous. But there must be some fraction of buyers in between the haves and and havenots who might be able to swing the cash for that Loar they've always wanted if they have a real good year etc...
John Hill
Mar-09-2008, 8:24pm
Considering the cost of a "basic" professional violin costing $125,000 up, a fine quality wooden acoustic instrument, like a mandolin, costing over that price is fair to the market. Of course there is a greater demand for a lesser number of violins (by percentage of players to instruments), than there is to the mandolin market.
You know, this argument always cracks me up. It's like saying all our friends are jumping off bridges so we should too.
$125K for something that I don't live in or can't write off on taxes...crazy. I'll never be convinced otherwise.
[QUOTE]You know, this argument always cracks me up. It's like saying all our friends are jumping off bridges so we should too.
$125K for something that I don't live in or can't write off on taxes...crazy. I'll never be convinced otherwise.
Well...a guess Picasso, Van Gogh, Stradivarius, Loars etc/ and most time tested gems of artistry don't mean much to some people. Thank goodness there are people who understand the value of quality and invest so others will be able to enjoy. I guess mass-produced vs. handmade and one of kind, should be available at your local wal-marts...
allenhopkins
Mar-09-2008, 11:01pm
So, can I get a sub-prime mortgage on a prime Loar mandolin?
JeffD
Mar-09-2008, 11:20pm
$125K for something that I don't live in or can't write off on taxes...crazy. I'll never be convinced otherwise.
Its all relative. From where I am I can whole heartedly agree with you. But I sure am trying to get to the place where it doesn't seem so crazy.
Glassweb
Mar-09-2008, 11:34pm
One may not be able to invest in a Loar, but there are so many SUPERB mandolins being built these days (by luthiers and companies) it hardly matters anymore. Not saying that a great Loar isn't worth the investment, but you don't have to sell the farm to own and play an exquisite mandolin.
woodwizard
Mar-09-2008, 11:53pm
So true
f5loar
Mar-10-2008, 1:28am
When you get down to the facts only about 200 of us at one time(less for those multi-owners)will ever own a Loar because that's all there is and there ain't going to be anymore. So to even consider being in that rather small select group of mandolin pickers today you got to have the money or pretty darn good credit.
Gone are the days of walking in a barber shop and seeing one on the wall for $150. I'd say the days are gone for even discovering the original owner closet finds although they do show up from time to time. And the odds of finding one that the owner doesn't know what it's worth are gone too due to places like this so you will have to pay the going rate to own one today. But since there are so many new copies today that are really great mandolins does it really matter anymore? I guess we can still dream.
Bernie Daniel
Mar-10-2008, 5:14am
f5loar: Gone are the days of walking in a barber shop and seeing one on the wall for $150. I'd say the days are gone for even discovering the original owner closet finds although they do show up from time to time. And the odds of finding one that the owner doesn't know what it's worth are gone too due to places like this so you will have to pay the going rate to own one today.
Yes times for antique instruments sure have changed. The Wakefield stories of finding Pee Wee Lambert's mandolin in the trash (was it a Loar?) or buying a F-5 and an F-4 for $250 on the same day in Columbus, Ohio are amazing.
But over all that is a good thing I glad I never was lucky enough to find an expensive mandolin in some old widow's closet because the ethical dilemma of what to pay would be too much to have to deal with.
kudzugypsy
Mar-10-2008, 7:46am
tom - your post reminds me of a guy i met years ago at a fiddlers convention - he worked for 25 years for the phone company in PA (ma Bell) - he was a field service tech - he said that EVERY 'elderly' home he went into he would chat with the owners and ask them if they had any old musical instruments - he found TWO loars, and 2 ferns along with a stash of other stuff like that.
lmartnla
Mar-10-2008, 8:34am
Quote from the Archives about this mandolin: #DB: Earlier "closed style" Gibson logo with bushing from A string inside "G".
No matter how I twist my head it still looks like a D string bushing within the "G" of Gibson on the headstock, or do I just tune wrong?
Tighthead
Mar-10-2008, 9:56am
I guess mass-produced vs. handmade and one of kind, should be available at your local wal-marts...
Weren't Loars "mass-produced" in some sense?
Glassweb
Mar-10-2008, 10:11am
Unlike the golden era of violin making in Cremona Italy, there has not, until perhaps the beginning 1970's, been a focused effort to "recreate" the magical qualities of the Loar F5. In Cremona there must have been dozens of master violin makers creating very high quality instruments... no doubt all being influenced in construction and sound by the "masters" such as Stradivari and Guaneri...
So here we have the Loar mandolin... created in VERY small numbers starting in 1922 and finishing up in late 24' or early 25' (the "unsigned" Loars). The Loar F5s have become the Stradivari mandolin... they are pretty much the template for all F5 being created today... even by Gibson itself. It is exciting to think about what is going on in America today with the mandolin luthier movement. I think we can expect to see the quality of hand-made F5 style mandolins just get better and better as the years go by. Yes, there is nothing that can really compare with a fine Loar-signed F5... but it's comforting to know that there are lot of folks out there at this very moment toiling away to make their mark in the relatively young world of the F5 mandolin. It's an exciting time to be a mandolinist!
Glassweb
Mar-10-2008, 10:21am
Weren't Loars "mass-produced" in some sense?
To give you an idea about how few Loar-signed instruments there are consider this - There are fewer than 225 signed Loar mandolins. I believe (and I'm probably off by a bit) there were over 600 violins made by the Stradivari workshp ALONE. And there were many, many other master violin builders in Europe at the time which = THOUSANDS of incredibly high-quality violins being built for many, many years. And while Gibson certainly "mass-produced" mandolins back in the 1920's, the production of the F5 during the tenure of Loar was anything but...
Tighthead
Mar-10-2008, 10:33am
Got it, thanks Glassweb. I've read about Gibson using duplicarvers or something similar but I was never sure if the F-5's were all carved by hand.
uncle ken
Mar-10-2008, 10:46am
Those of us who are into vintage mandolin collecting are part of such a tiny niche group compared to say art collecting or even violin collecting. To say tiny may even be an overstatement. That could be why prices sometimes don't exactly follow the real world. When I play in public here in So. Cal. nobody has a clue what instrument I'm even playing. It's almost like collecting an oddity like vintage bowling balls in a sense. I'm not trying to belittle it, I'm one the fanatics myself. Maybe someone who knows more about economics can comment regarding this.
Someone mentioned good Loar sounding modern instruments, I played a Pheonix Bluegrass model last week and was really suprised how good it sounded.
Spruce
Mar-10-2008, 10:47am
"I believe (and I'm probably off by a bit) there were over 600 violins made by the Stradivari workshp ALONE."
Yep...
You're off by about half... http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wink.gif
Strad is believed to have made 1,116 instruments during his long lifetime (that's a Hill estimate), of which 650 are known to remain.
Glassweb
Mar-10-2008, 10:56am
ah... thanks Bruce... i had a feeling i was off on that one!
kudzugypsy
Mar-10-2008, 10:58am
dont forget though, and i'm no italian violin expert - but it wasnt until the mid-1800s when people began to covet the Strads and Guarnei violins - until then it was the Steiner and Amati sound that people were after. what i'm getting at is tastes change - now, those violins, while still desired, arent even in the same class. collectors seek them, but performance artists usually go for the more powerful Strad's, Del Gesu's, etc.
it MAY be that 100 years from now, its not the Loars performing artist are after, but say Gilchrist, or http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif - we wont be around to know.
Spruce
Mar-10-2008, 11:33am
it MAY be that 100 years from now, its not the Loars performing artist are after, but say Gilchrist, or http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif - we wont be around to know.
Or a nice F4... http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wink.gif
I think they are now http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
mrmando
Mar-10-2008, 2:15pm
Heh. Friend of mine left her Gilchrist at home and brought her "beater" to Wintergrass. Her "beater" is a Sullivan.
Or, perhaps, Loar prices aren't falling with housing prices. At least the asking prices are still sitting tall in the saddle...
http://elderly.com/vintage/items/90U-5005.htm
Phil Goodson
Mar-30-2008, 2:17pm
Heh. Friend of mine left her Gilchrist at home and brought her "beater" to Wintergrass. Her "beater" is a Sullivan.
==============================
Heh, heh.
I'll call no names, but I know one guy here who speaks of his "beater Loar" (to distinguish it from his others.) http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
Phil