Glut of used instruments for sale?

[Patrick Sylvest]

I've been looking over the classifieds. There seems to be a glut of used instruments for sale. I've got a Collings MT Custom that I've not listed due to the volume of instruments that haven't moved. I guess that one could 'price to sell' and that might get some attention.

I'm loving my new Weber, but once you've cured your MAS, albeit temporarily, you gotta thin the herd! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[MikeEdgerton]

This happens every year around the holidays and tax season.

[cooper4205]

that's about the average it seems. I week or so ago it was up in the 180's. It seems to flucuate.

[Patrick Sylvest]

That Custom Collings MT blacktop is a steal at $1750.00; it won't be there long at that price.

[Playing8]

I guess some of these guys are like me. My wife doesn't understand that two mandolins are better than One and so on. I just happen to get my new one around the holidays and didn't realize until after I posted how quick it would fill up. OH WELL.

[swampstomper]

I think it's more than holiday/tax time, I think #it's directly related to the poor economy in the USA, where most of Café members live. Some may have mortgage problems themselves, but all are affected by the falling dollar, rising petrol prices, and uncertainty about the future. There is a general conservatism about spending in the USA now (wait for the Christmas retail figures to come out!). I listed a mando for $2000 back in early 2007 and got about 10 inquiries, three serious; in the end #no one pulled the trigger. I listed the same mando $200 cheaper in early November and got NO responses. I wrote directly to some people who had responded the first time, and three answered back 'no longer considering adding to #my stable, sorry' or 'must sell first'.

So I think there are people who have decided to cut out some "luxuries" and get their financial house in order, not just for this year's taxes.

[Tim]

Does anyone really keep track of the number for sale over time? The familiarity effect (people selling the same model you own) can lead you to think there is a trend when all you are seeing is one point in the normal fluctuation.

[Patrick Sylvest]

Frankly, I'll keep the Collings if I can swing it; Actually, if I post it and it doesn't sell....I can make a good case with the Mrs. that it was meant to stay! That'd be sweet!

http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[stevenmando]

Hi
did any one think of donating those unused instruments to some young people? and give them the mando experience,
creating a new generation of mandolin players.
There are a lot of underpriviliged kids that would love to play music and with the schools cutting back on the arts and music programs it would help some kids that otherwise would never have a chance of playing a musicical instrument, go to your local school and talk to a music teacher and find out if there is any students that are interested in playing mandolin and become a mentor to some young person, you could file your donation on your tax form , I bet some kid would love to to play a mandolin given a chance and we could create a new generations of Andy Statmans and Chris Thile, and a lot of other greats that we have today , kids that would follow in their and your footsteps, what a gift that would be.

[Playing8]

Great Idea, but I didn't hear anyone say that these were unused instruments, but I have and will be willing to help people of all ages playing instrument, Too many times have I found that they get played a couple of weeks, and get thrown in a closet. So I do recomend buying a starter mandolin before handing a high end mandolin to a beginer. I do agree with you that we should be helping these young musicians, as much as we can.
Thanks and keep pickin.

[Chris Biorkman]

I think it's more than holiday/tax time, I think #it's directly related to the poor economy in the USA, where most of Café members live. Some may have mortgage problems themselves, but all are affected by the falling dollar, rising petrol prices, and uncertainty about the future. There is a general conservatism about spending in the USA now (wait for the Christmas retail figures to come out!). I listed a mando for $2000 back in early 2007 and got about 10 inquiries, three serious; in the end #no one pulled the trigger. I listed the same mando $200 cheaper in early November and got NO responses. I wrote directly to some people who had responded the first time, and three answered back 'no longer considering adding to #my stable, sorry' or 'must sell first'.

So I think there are people who have decided to cut out some "luxuries" and get their financial house in order, not just for this year's taxes.
I don't think the economy is in that bad of shape. Obviously a lot of people are being affected by the mortgage mess, but I would venture to say that they probably aren't the people who are looking to spend thousands of dollars on a luxury item in the first place. The line of business that I am in is very in tune with economic conditions in general and things, while off somewhat, are not quite as bad as some would have you believe.

[f5loar]

As long as the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer the economy shall remain strong. The problem with mandolins is all the rich already got what they need. But try finding a WII for your kid. When toy makers can't meet the demand the economy is good. Buy a new car at zero percent interest for 5 years if you quality. It's that "if" word that affects the majority but for the ones that do qualify the economy is good. When you can't beg, borrow or steal a new Dude mandolin the economy is good. When the USA exports more then it imports the economy is good. When Presidential hopefuls can afford $400 haircuts and $5000 pantsuits the economy is good. I guess we can hear from the "glass is half empty" folks now.

[Patrick Sylvest]

Let's ask Neil Cavuto! No wait, Jim Cramer, he'll know!

[Stephen Perry]

I expect this is a normal cycle. A big one, but normal. The various mortgage houses are getting stabilized by an influx of foreign cash, necessary now that many of the repackaged mortgage based instruments have been downgraded. Have to maintain higher cash reserves - leverage works against you sometimes.

But the desire seems steady, gets pent up, then bursts out. I go through the "arrgghhh, stale inventory" fit about twice a year. Rarely do I around and see any of the stuff I was worried about!

Same with used things. I have a few items that have hung around for years. The rest move through.

Hurts margins for a while, but the weak shops die out and many private sellers hang onto things. Then demand raises and all is well.

[Patrick Sylvest]

Thanks Steve, for that fine analysis!

I just might let you sell me a fiddle someday, when my cash reserves are a bit more steady. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wink.gif

[Scott Tichenor]

I see this same observation come up about every three to four months. There are literally tens of thousands of used mandolins floating about just in the U.S. and easily over a thousand new instruments built per year that will soon be used. How does one extrapolate the fact there is an upturn or downturn when 1) all anecdotal evidence--no statistics, 2) the small number of used instruments on the classifieds represents such a statistically small number of the used market, and 3) when there are literally hundreds of music stores in just the U.S. that have far greater collective numbers?

I'm not concerned whether someone thinks there's an glut or not. The basic numbers just don't support an argument in either direction. I have a fairly long daily commute through a remote area. Once in awhile I see a deer. If I see five one day, does that mean there's been a boom in the deer population? If the used instrument number goes up or down by 50, it's not even a blip on the statistical radar. It might mean fewer or more people are using the classifieds, but I find them to be totally predictable almost.

How many of you were monitoring the classifieds back in 2000? Who remembers what year we had over 400 total ads, or less than 100?

What bothers me in a greater sense is that the longer these discussions run, the "I read it on the internet, therefore it must be true" factor plays in. How many times have we read this one: "Seems to be a lot of Rigels|Collings|Weber|Gibson|Breedlove|SomeBuilder for sale in the Classifieds. What's wrong with the instruments they're building?"

The Cafe Classifieds are not the end all or what defines the used mandolin market. Neither is eBay. If some of you are really that good at predicting what's up with the economy by surfing the web, Ben Bernanke has a job waiting for you. We read the headlines in the paper and attempt to apply that to an instrument that registers just above the banjo in popularity. Ah well, that's why we have these forums, eh?
http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

[Scott Tichenor]

Screen shot of traffic on just the classifieds for a 30 day period, most recent trended against same time period one-year ago before the mortgage crisis hit the front page. It's correct that traffic is down slightly. You can apply two schools of thought there. Fewer people are visiting those pages is one. My take is I see using the same stats program increased use of RSS feeds in addition to some people using the syndication feed. Also added the classifieds most recent top 10 to the home page. Less need to visit that page. If there was a trend either way I think it'd be noticeable. Dig back further and the stats are very predictable. They're boring, actually, but I have no problem with that.

[Scott Tichenor]

From backup:

December 25, 2006

35 - New Instruments For Sale
146 - Used Instruments For Sale
45 - Mandolin Accessories
7 - Would Like to Trade
2 - Instrument Lost or Stolen

December 26, 2007

23 - New Instruments For Sale
151 - Used Instruments For Sale
53 - Mandolin Accessories
13 - Would Like to Trade
1 - Instrument Lost or Stolen

[Patrick Sylvest]

Thanks Scott. I'm enjoying the stats and the insight.

[MikeEdgerton]

I'd say the two Decembers are pretty close statistically

[Scott Tichenor]

But try finding a WII for your kid. When toy makers can't meet the demand the economy is good.
Sorry, had no problem finding one, and didn't even have to leave the house.
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[MikeEdgerton]

We got ours last year when they were first released. My son sat in line all night to get one. This year they seemed to be available as long as you were willing to buy them bundled with a bunch of games.

[f5loar]

I see Lost or stolen mandolins are down 50%!
Less traffic on the cafe? All those that lost their homes also lost access to the internet. Unlikely you will log back on at your rental home until you get your feet back on the ground and standing in line for your XX mins. at the public library can be a pain.

[Keith Newell]

Come on everyone and lets give Scott the kudo's he deserves for running a top notch site like the cafe. Where else will you get comments and stats to back it up? Where else will you have someone step up to the plate and swing on topics that breach so many topics that other sites run amock (a real word?) and cause such a bad experience for the community. Thanks Scott and happy Holidays. I for one am a big fan of what you do.
Keith Newell

[Scott Tichenor]

I see Lost or stolen mandolins are down 50%!
Less traffic on the cafe? All those that lost their homes also lost access to the internet. Unlikely you will log back on at your rental home until you get your feet back on the ground and standing in line for your XX mins. at the public library can be a pain.
Sorry, what little it's down there was redirected exactly to where I wanted it, the Cafe home page. Muh-ha-ha-ha-ha. Up 14% over same period. Be nice to me or I'll make your Loar go down in value! I hear the prices are falling like mad. I know it's true. I read it right here!
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[Walter Newton]

an instrument that registers just above the banjo in popularity
Do you think so? #I'd have guessed the mandolin is well below the banjo on the average person's radar.

[Scott Tichenor]

Proof Loar prices are on the decline.

[Scott Tichenor]

an instrument that registers just above the banjo in popularity
Do you think so? I'd have guessed the mandolin is well below the banjo on the average person's radar.
Apples and oranges. Web search doesn't equate to actual instruments owned or manufactured and/or used on recordings. Name ten 5-string banjo builders without using Google or going to one of the three banjo mega-web sites. Mandolin is a world instrument. Banjo, not.

[cooper4205]

a chart as well?!?! it's gotta be official now since it's on the internet, too! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[Links]

Since Loars are back down to zero - I'm back in the market!

Yippe!

[Glassweb]

Proof Loar prices are on the decline.
That's too good Scott... BRAVO!

[Links]

Since Loars are down to zero - Tom, you and Alan send me yours - I'll graciously pay the shipping - no need to insure since they are worthless!

Scott is dead on the money! Although he did not say it per se - personal anecdotal experiences do not a "trend" make. We tend to think everyone else's experience is like ours - especially if several people on the internet confirm what we have already experienced.

[Ted Eschliman]

If I had one fervent wish it would be that every modem sold in America would come with a warning label from the surgeon general, and that warning would simply say: 'Judgment Not Included.'
Thomas Friedman, Commencement address at Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts, USA, June 5, 2005

[allenhopkins]

December 25, 2006

2 - Instrument Lost or Stolen

December 26, 2007

1 - Instrument Lost or Stolen
Glad to see crime is down, anyway.

[Playing8]

Were the 2 that were stolen in 06 Loars?

[bluegrassjack2]

Scott, That is very good and useful information u published, thanks.

[mjblcb509mando]

The economy is not in as bad a shape as everyone says, of course I am one of those who have the 0% interest for 5 years car loan. The problems with housing are largely the result of people buying houses they should never be in in the first place. It is easy to blame the banking industry for that, but what about individual responsibility.

I know I am generalizing but if you look at the mortgage default rale it remains very low. Even looking at the sub-prime mortgate market, most in that situation do pay off their mortgage. Many of those that do not probably could not have ever paid it off in the first place. Unemployment remains low, so it is not like a bunk of folks went out and bought a house then lost the means to pay for it.

Neal cavuto rocks!!!

[Michael Gowell]

On the other hand...credit card companies bombarded us all with card offers. #House prices were inflated, and that inflation (in the form of equity loans) funded much of the new credit. #For a while. #A house of cards, in more ways than one.