Mandolin Sales?

[pickinNgrinnin]

From an outside observation point, it seems that Mandolin sales have slowed. Perhaps this has been the case for awhile. I'm seeing Mandolins here in the classifieds and on Ebay that are getting re-listed multiple times. The economy? Saturation point? Miracle M.A.S. cures? What's your take?

[John Flynn]

Just MHO, but I am not sure EBay is a perfect barometer of overall sales of anything. Obviously, it would be best to have hard sales numbers to go on, but those are not likely to be available. What I think are more reliable indicators in any market, not just mandolins, are things like:
1) The number of suppliers entering/leaving the marketplace
2) Existing suppliers expanding/contracting thier offerings
3) Prices increasing/decreasing in relation to inflation.
4) Greater/lesser marketing, advertising and publicity activity around the product

I see all four indicators increasing. That would lead me to suspect the market is expanding, not contracting. The situation on EBay may have more to do with EBay, and people's perceptions of EBay, than mandolins. It may also have to do with the fact that there are increasingly a lot of alternatives for getting decent deal on a mandolin.

[PCypert]

Hey,
There are a lot of deals going on behind the scenes. I had a lady pull a mandolin off of ebay a couple minutes after it went up. Also a lot of the things on ebay are asking too much or are offering mandolins you can find for a better price elsewhere. There aren't too many people who care about having the first breedlove orca! I'd say they are growing but there is new interest in other mandos. Used to people would upgrade to a Flatiron or Weber after a Pac Rim. Now people are looking at getting the new Collings or something instead of the old standbys (the old standbys are still getting sales, just not as quickly).
Paul

[jlb]

I generally agree with you, but the last point about marketing I can see why a company would invest in marketing if their sales were poor to try and boost them.

Not really marketting, but didn't Loar design and advertise the F-model in part because enthusiasm for mandolin was on the decline?

pickinNgrinnin.. I must say mandolin sales as far as the re-sale market are down bigtime.... The stock market outlook is bleek right now also with interest rates on the way up possibly..

It is a buyers market for those who want to buy into some nice pieces NOW. Used Mando's just aint selling right now.

My honest opinion I am not on a buying spree right now because 1. I got some big bills coming up and .. 2.. Over the past couple of months sales are just dead. But if I was on the search for my own personal mandolin of my dreams right now is the time to do it. Dealers are willing to wheel and deal.

[doanepoole]

I'd be interested to see sales patterns as they regard to months/seasons, etc. I'm sure there is a pattern of activity.

Ex. I bet around X-mas sales go up, maybe in the summer they'd go down cause people are more apt to spend money on vacation...stuff like that.

[John Flynn]

the last point about marketing I can see why a company would invest in marketing if their sales were poor to try and boost them
That is certainly a good common sense conclusion, but common sense is not all that common in business, LOL, and that conclusion often does not bear out in actual practice. It is a running joke in marketing circles that "when sales are low, marketing is the first to go." The problem is that of the three big financial measures, revenue, profit margin and cash flow, the latter hits most companies the first and the hardest. When sales are low the most common reaction is to lower prices to get product moving again and cut costs, including marketing costs, to make up for the lower prices and to preserve cash. Go figure...

[jim simpson]

I like this thread as I was wondering the same thing. Hey I want the first Orca but at a way lower price! Maverick, I'm glad to hear dealers are willing to wheel and deal cause I hope to trade in my Yellowstone soon. I did just post it locally to see if I could get any bites at $2200.00. I would feel better having someone try it first rather than post it and then have to send it out. I have had good fortune trading up at the big guitar show that comes to my area twice a year!

[pickinNgrinnin]

Mav-

That's what I thought. I wish I were in a position to buy a new Gibson Fern or a new Bill Davis or etc. etc. The irony of being in a buyer's market yet unable to buy, is classic. My timing is way off http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Yes, would someone please buy this:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws....80&rd=1 (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=2385&item=3722830780&rd=1)

Maybe they would work out a good deal outside of the auction!

[mzbanjo]

Hey Mav-
Another way of looking at the stock market is that right now, stocks are on "sale." It's similar to when someone goes shopping and see a sweater that is too expensive and wait for the price to go down. Well after yesterday (down around 180 points) I'd say stocks are on "sale" the market tends to go up in the long run, at least as long as we've had it around in the U.S. and I think it's safe to still believe that will be the trend. It's the idea of "buy low, sell high" but most people never do that. When the market goes down people get scared and get out (sell low) and when it goes up they want to jump on the train usually too late to see most of the gains (buy high). Hopefully cafe-ers aren't doing this but just think that when the market does go back up, some will be much better positioned to buy that new mando they have their eye than others who aren't prepared. I'm a financial advisor at a major brokerage house and am reading reports all the time as part of my job. Almost everything I read says the market is on its way up. Just a thought, sorry this was so long and had so little to do with mandos.

Piece
Matt

[doanepoole]

I've certainly made much more money in stock in the "Valleys" as opposed to the "Peaks".

I don't think its just the mando market that's down, but the guitar market as well. #I recently got what I think is a super-great deal on a flattop mando off of e-bay, and got a new guitar, warranty and all, from a dealership for less than what folks are asking for used examples.

Now indeed seems to be the time to buy if you're so inclined and have some cash freed up. Conversely, if you have an mando you want to sell, you may want to hold onto it for a while.

[mcmando]

doane-- I wish I knew your secret! Looking back over the past few years, I've tended to buy at the peaks! Of course, my crystal ball resembles something more like a bowling ball-- it's opaque and has holes in it!

Mando sales are kinda seasonal. The segment that seems a little slow is the $2000 down range. If your an Ebay watcher you've also no doubt noticed the pacific rim stuff in not selling. While prices seem to be slighty softer at the moment,I don't see what some folks are predicting. If your waiting on the sidelines in hopes of picking up a mint Flatiron Festival F for $1500.......your gonna be waiting a long time.

Dealers are ALWAYS willing to deal.....

[Scotti Adams]

..hey Dale..I ready to deal on that Presto.... http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

mmmmmmmm... Presto http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[Big Joe]

Our sales have not slowed a bit in our retail stores. Actually, the sales of all instruments is continuing to climb at an astronomical rate. From our manufacturing point the sales are continuing to increase also. We see no signs of a soft economy for mid to high end instruments. In all actuality many of our dealers are beginning to get excited about sales picking up after a slower last year than some hoped. Our retail stores had a record year last year and are continuing on a breathtaking pace. I can only report what I see and hear but that is what our experience is.

[Scott Tichenor]

There are no industry statistics available so about all that one can do is gather anecdotal evidence which is most of what I'm reading above... and probably all I'll offer. I talk to all of the builders that do any kind of volume and am hearing positive, not negative. I think it's possible there's a bit of a small backlash going on in web retail only (this is *not* directed at anyone here so don't get yer underwear all knotted up over it) and eBay though with bricks and morter retail stores possibly regaining back some business. And I think this is a trend that will continue but be slow. The web isn't exactly the user friendly place it was a few years ago.

I don't think there's much doubt there's a fair amount of scamming even in the mandolin areas on eBay. I've probably had more interesting inquiries involving shady dealings on the Cafe classifieds in the past 90 days than in the previous few years. I personally view that as either new or existing visitors testing this venue for that kind of business and my resolve for dealing with it. Trust me when I say I've responded (stop laughing, Beimborn! stop it! heh, heh).

I do see a bit of a lull though but I associate this with post tax blues, end of the school year when wallets are drained and a family vacation may still be on the burner and people are getting out travelling and playing more. There's also a ton of transactions that occur that the web never sees. I've been involved in several of those myself lately. I do think the inflationary prices that went on for awhile have cooled. And that said, I should have a report here in a few days of a Nugget Deluxe going for $28K. Har.

[Scott Tichenor]

Ooops.

P.S. that Nugget Deluxe is not mine.

[danb]

Hmm, I wouldn't say the prices have cooled. the top-end stuff is still commanding high dollars.. there's simply not enough supply.

[Scott Tichenor]

Hmm, I wouldn't say the prices have cooled. the top-end stuff is still commanding high dollars.. there's simply not enough supply.
That's correct in that good instruments are still commanding high prices. What I mean by inflationary is that the Nugget Deluxes (as example) that are bringing $22-25K right now won't be bringing $30-32K this fall--I don't think. A couple of years back that rapid inflation was happening for quite a few instruments/builders. Three years ago you could buy a Nugget Deluxe for $12-15K easily. Not now. I think there's been cooling of that. Loars went through that cycle too and still may be a bit. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but they went from $60K to being pretty high to $100 and up as at least anecdotal selling prices. Sure a few of those were. And of course we know the story about that one buyer... Oh, my.

[BenE]

I saw this sort of thing with fly-fishing gear after the movie River Runs Through It came out....For a couple of years we sold the heck out of beginner package deals...After a while things slowed down as far the newbies coming in wanting to learn how to flyfish. I think OBWAT has had a similar effect in the mandolin market. I think there is still a high demand for the upper tier of mandolins but the market for the beginner instruments is not as strong due to the cooling off of the whole OBWAT movie. There are alot of folks with a passion for music that want the best mandolin they can afford....but there are a lot of beginners that will play for a few months and probably never pick it up again.

[JDSmith]

Good points made by all. I also wonder how much of the market's needs are being met by our friends Mr. Brentrup, Mr. Davis and Mr. Wilcox?

[Dru Lee Parsec]

I really think that the effect of "Oh Brother" has ended. #That movie is now about 4 years old. #However, the popularity of Old Time, Bluegrass, and Americana music is still strong. I think that's just people responding to a lack of interest in the latest boy band or the latest belly-button-showing-breast-enhanced-teen-queen pop star dancing on stage with a headphone mic. #I can't listen to that stuff and as far as playing music goes I don't want to be in yet another classic rock cover band. I can't listen to that any more either. #But when I go to a bluegrass jam I have a blast playing music with other people. #Wow, "Socializing!" What a cool idea!

I just think that a large part of our population is tired of what's on the radio and they're turning towards something that feels more "real". #That, in turn, is pushing a re-birth of interest in acoustic guitars and mandolins. #We also need to realize that as America's population is getting older we have more adults who have careers and have saved money that they can afford to spend on nice instruments. #I think the combination of an older population and the growing interest in traditional music will cause good things in the acoutsic instrument market. # And certainly that's what Joe is saying is happening at Gibson. #The people who can both afford and appreciate a fine instrument are, in fact, buying them.

[pickinNgrinnin]

When I set this post rolling, I guess I was thinking more in lines with Mandolins in the $1,000 - $3,000 something range and used rather than new.

Big Joe tells us that things are good at Gibson and I'm not surprised to hear that the high end stuff is moving

As Dale suggested, the lower level used market may just be in a seasonal stall. Interesting thoughts and comments here. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mandosmiley.gif

[JGWoods]

I was going to buy a new mando, but I bought a tank of gas instead...
gw

[furashgf]

I've been waiting 2 months for my mid-mo. At least they're busy.

[A9cp]

Let's see, $2.10 for a gal of premium gas in central Fla., milk going to $4.00 a gal, college for the kids going up, darn war still going on, election year and now my hobbies (mando, golf, fishing) are inflating also. Hey what's up with that.

[Nick Triesch]

I'm not being negitive but the price of mandolins in general will go down. Interest rates are going up and home prices will crash in many areas of the U.S. Homes in California for instance are super inflated. It just can't go on. A $500,00 house here in San diego will sell in two years for $300,000. Just a matter of time. It's not a bad thing....just life. What goes up must come down. I love mandolins but I think the fun ride is almost over. Mandos were super popular 100 years ago then they went away. They will go away again . Only the true few mandolin lovers will hang on and it will soon be like it was a few years ago. Most folks will play guitars. There will be a ton of terrific fine mandolin deals on the market. It will be a fun buyers market. Check the classifieds, It's starting to happen right now. I do agree that a few high end buliders will still sell their mandolins for a while but change will catch up with them also. IMHO please. Nick

[August Watters]

Aw, Nick, have some faith !! #http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

If the numbers of kids playing at a high level is any indication, the music is going to keep getting more popular. There's a whole crop of 10-to-16 year olds who are taking full advantage of all the music available, and I've never seen so much good talent developed so young. And every year there are more good players in my incoming college classes too.

Also, we're just starting to really see the possibilities afforded by the internet -- 20 years ago, or even 10, the music industry had a stranglehold on what music became available -- now people can really get their music out and share it, find others who appreciate it, etc. -- the internet is the best thing to happen to the folk process in a long time, IMHO.

I think it's true good mandolins will be cheaper as manufacturers figure out how to make better ones for less -- but there's a huge among of interest in good instruments, and the craftsmanship that goes into them. Looks to me as if that will support builders for a long time.

August W
http://www.galleryofstrings.com

Try to think of the underlying factors here. #For some reason (OBWAT has oft been cited and oft been disagreed with), interest in mandolins has grown a lot recently. #That increase in demand, pushed the prices up. #Rising prices attracts more manufactures. #If the manufacturing capacity starts growing faster than the demand, the prices will start to fall. #Of course that will cause some manufactures to leave the field. #The behavior of the suppliers is pretty easy to predict over the long run. #In the short run, they won't be able to adust as quickly. #The unknown is what is going to happen to mandolin interest. #The slowing in the entry level instrument demand (cited in this thread and taken at face value for the duration of this entry) would indicate that the demand is going to drop. #It will take some time until that recent surge of new players MAS-themselves up to the best instrument they can afford/justify so the higher end will take longer to be affected. #If I were supplying high end mandolins, I'd certainly be watching the low end market as one of many market indicators.

It is not, as is often cited in these threads, supply and demand that answers the question. #It is changes in supply and changes in demand that answer the question.

[jlb]

I also don't see honestly that mandolins are immune to the trend factor like guitars have proven to be. History certainly shows this to be the case, but I suppose only the future will tell.

Still, I don't see that a lack of interest in mandos, should that occur, would make high-grade mandos less expensive...I think it would make them more expensive.

But there are loads and loads of mandos out there so I think this hypothetical situation would certainly drive dow the used market.

[Bradley]

There are definite differences between the New prices and what people are paying for new MAndolins.

I personally dont see decreasing prices in New Gibsons,Collings,or any of the other high end mandolins out there.I do however see a bottom falling out of the overly inflated prices of hard to get parlor instruments like Nugget,Dude,and Gilchrist.There is no way that those instruments are worth the $20K and up price tag that have been selling for.Those will be the ones whose price tag will begin to drop.

Like someone said earlier,it seems that everything is going up dramatically.things arent good right now overall for our country,I think lot of people are rethinking their investments right now....

What would make high-grade mandos less expensive would be IF lack of interest in mandos eventually lead to a place that there were more high end mandos than buyers. #

Since most high end mandolins are currently sold before they are built, obviously there would have to be a lot of changes to get to that point. #And, I think supporting your point: #If interest drops and then you get the resultant drop in building you are back on a cycle of high-end being short again. #What part of the cycle are you looking at is key. #

But that really is my point, there are situations that would cause prices to rise and situations that would cause prices to drop. #If your decision to buy now is based partly on what you think the price is going to be at future point, you need to think about the likelyhood of these changes.

[John Flynn]

I really think that the effect of "Oh Brother" has ended.
I would have thought so also, but that is not what I am seeing. Just as an example, I attended the St. Louis performance of the Great High Mountain Tour last night. First, the venue, the "Fabulous" Fox Theater seats 5,500 and it was packed on a Wednesday school night. Second, the biggest crowd reactions, to my surprise, were from "Oh Brother" tunes. "Cold Mountain" tunes were a definite second and just plain good bluegrass and old-time music was third. I found myself out of step with the crowd, as my personal interests were exactly the opposite. To me, this seemed a pretty good indication that the OBWAT effect is still with us.

Back to the topic of this thread, more than half the groups had a mando player featured prominently. Sierra Hull was onstage a lot, did an incredible job and had everyone buzzing at intermission. I can only imagine that a bunch of St. Louis-area kids are going find themselves in mandolin lessons this Summer!

[Mando Medic]

I agree that mandolin sales change like the season and like anything else, they are driven by all kinds of market conditions. I used to sell a lot of High End mandolins but don't sell as many now due to a lot of reasons. One of them being the return rate. The other is there are lots of new folks coming into the mandolin market. I see a very viable market in the $100 to $3,000 market. I think people are more suspect about buying on line for fear of being ripped off and so private party ads suffer too. In my shop I stock around 25 to 40 mandolins at any given time. They range from $150 to $10,000. My high end market has dropped some this past 7 months but the low and mid range has not. I've had to sharpen my pencil on a lot of deals but the one thing you can't buy on line that you can get from smaller dealers is service. Just try and wrangle a set-up and a ToneGard from Musicians Friend.

[Big Joe]

We have not noticed any drop off in the lower end market. It keeps growing as does our high end market. We find no lack of interest. That is true on any of the stringed instruments. Electric guitars continue to climb. Acoustic guitars continue to climb. Banjos continue to climb. Especially with young people. Mandolins sales are growing faster than we can keep pace with. Again, a large market in young people and many of these younger buyers are buying mid to upper end instruments. The same for dobros. However, in the dobros the hound dog seems to dominate the market.

Our national economy is in pretty good shape and the economic indicators are pretty aggresive. I think that is part of the reason our stores are doing so well. There are pockets of tough times, but that is very regional. Overall we are in pretty good shape and money seems to be available.

I don't think the "Oh Brother" phenom is driving the market any longer. I believe there is a more endemic interest in the instruments that may have been strengthened by the 'Oh Brother" stage. Many of our markets are growing because there is a true grass roots desire to play music rather than watch tv or other social activities. Most people like the social aspects. May people have always wished they could play and are now finding time or money to try. They are finding a place to play whether in church or jams or bluegrass festsivals or family or http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif In the end, we are pleased to see a great interest in making music rather than listen to it. This may be a reflection on the recording industry and commercial radio and how boring it has become. It is great to see this happen.

Will this change in the future? Probably to some degree. The kids that are playing now may well continue and their kids will play some but in a generation or two we could well see a decline in interest as other things come to the forefront. Until then, we are seeing a great thing. These are just my observations and may not apply to anyone else. I really think video games are beginning to bore our youth because they stifle the imagination where music expands one creative side. At least I hope I'm right. Thank you.

BigJoe - my only disgreement is that I don't think that in the context I was talking that Gibson has a low end instrument. #I think the low end of the Gibson range is rarely a first instrument, most likely that second step of MAS. #I'm sure there are exceptions.

If this discussion (this thread in particular but the overall recurring mandolin-cost thread in general) moves to trends affecting the market from the overly simple supply/demand, I'll be happy.

I would think that Gibson would be interested in how the sub-$1k pac-rims are selling this year because those are the same people who'll be looking for something in the F9 range next year and something in the high-end range in 2-5 years. #Not as the ultimate factor but just as one input.

[Big Joe]

Hey Tim...
I was not referring to Gibson in particular, but our retail operations. Our retail stores do sell pac rim mandolins and the sales of those has been steady and increasing with no sign of slowing. While we do have no lack of market on the high end, our low end is doing fine also. Different areas are going to have differing responses due to market saturation or local economic realities, but we have not had any problem with those. Our Opry Mills store has tremendous tourist traffic and sales there should be pretty reflective of the national economy. The sales there are substantially higher than last year which was substantially higher than the year before. Our local economy is pretty good but we have seen no decrease in any of our market.

[jlb]

I also wouldn't classify any Gibson mandolin as low end, except Gibson's Pac-Rim Epiphones.

I understood Tim's low-end comment to be about the Kentuckys and Epiphones. Unless tons of kids these days have rich parents to lay out $1000+, I'd think this is what people are buying for starters for their kids, which may be a good indicator of youth interest.

I'd think working adults buying starters for themselves would be a little more willing to shell out some bucks for a mid-range istrument like an A-9 or F-9 or whatever.

[jlb]

Opry Mills sells Pac Rim stuff???

[Mandobar]

i didn't have rich parents but when i showed above average musical aptitude they did whatever was possible to buy me a professional grade instrument. in turn i have always provided my son with several instruments and have loaned equipment to his band. there is nothing more frustrating than trying to learn on an instrument that will not stay in tune.

i once saw a couple pull up to a shop owned by a friend of mine in an S-class mercedes. their kid could really play the guitar and as it turned out he had been teaching himself. they refused to buy him a $900 guitar and went off in search of something cheaper. go figger.

i'd be tickled pink if my kid wanted to play mandolin.

Nothing like buying a import mando from Gibson in "Nashville" I guess.......... http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[jlb]

I know Gibson owns many import companies (heck, even Martin owns at least one), I was just surprised because I visited that site, and I didn't remember seeing any Pac Rim stuff there...guess I wasn't paying too close attention.

[EasyEd]

Hey All,

I been shopping for a couple months now and will continue shopping. I'm in no great hurry as I finally got my Pac Rim KM250s back (it was on loan to a Japanese exchange student while stitches in my left forefinger healed). I've noticed fewer mandos being offered and I'm not sure why other than to speculate that people may be concerned about getting a low price and are waiting for higher prices as they likely don't need to sell.

As to mando popularity my theory is that the biggest force that created the current acceptibility (and demand) of the mando, banjo and dolbro is the music of the Dixie Chicks. Nowdays in "mainstream" country the mando is quite routinely used (from Paul Brandt to Brooks an Dunn to Alan Jackson) and often the music includes banjo (Kieth Urban) and dolbro parts. Before the Chicks these instruments generally played very minor roles (other than in bluegrass of course) mainly I think because record labels dictated that they would. The Chicks were told to leave the banjo behind - but they didn't. I think OBWAT pushed bluegrass into the fore and Cold Mountain - mountain music. Many musicians were instrumental (haha) in keeping bluegrass instruments in country but the overwhelming popularity of the Chicks made them mainstream again where they've always belonged. (JMNTBHO)

Take Care! -Ed-

[jlb]

I don't think any one thing explains the resurge of popularity in acoustic intruments, but I certainly agree with Ed in that commercial acts like Dixie Chicks, Nickle Creek, Dolly Parton, etc. have had a whole lot to do with getting the mainstream more interested in acoustic instruments.

And I don't think you can undervalue the Dixie Chicks here, either. I mean, for God's sake, some people who listen to rap like the Dixie Chicks. They are one of those rare country band that urbanites aren't ashamed to listen to....maybe Garth Brooks enjoyed that status once. They promote a very youthful, vibrant, and independent-female vibe that I think transcends the typical pop-country market, appealing to a much, much wider audience. My sister-in-law hates country music, but admits that she likes the Dixie Chicks. And their videos show them proudly playing their mandos, banjos, and fiddles...you can't tell me plenty of young girls/women haven't been inspired to take up acoustic instruments because of this band.

I speculate that this stuff is gaining popularity because people are getting sick and tired of the typical crap that gets cycled and recycled out of Nashville, LA, NY, etc. People are starving for some genuine music, which the major record labels are not providing. Innovative mainstream music goes through peaks and valleys, and generally speaking, its in a pretty deep valley now, so people are looking for something a little more genuine...roots Americana is filling the bill.

I also tend to think that eventually some new genuine musical movement will come along and be gobbled eagerly up by the mainstream, pushing everything else, including acoustic music, to the fringes, as is the cyclical nature of pop culture.

Interest in any type of music gets recycled, discarded, and recycled again. Acoustic music just happens to be currently in the spotlight...something will replace it, it will lag in popularity, come back again, and repeat that process over and over and over.

[mandodon]

Lots of times this topic comes up and there are many speculatory comments from consumers like "Mandolin sales are down because jobs aren't there". And comments from producers saying "Mandolin sales are great...the economy is doing just fine."

I fear alot of these comments are based on speculation or financial motivation rather than scientific evidence.

Here is a link to the Department of Labors website, which includes scientifically gathered data: www.dol.gov

Sale of expensive "luxury" items like mandolins are completely invalid indicators of the state of the economy. Mandolins are not food. Everyone buys food. A minute, practically immeasurable fraction of the population buys mandolins.

[Bob Sayers]

I suspect I'm the guy distorting Gibson's retail sales upward. #Tax refund in hand, I recently broke down and ordered a varnish "Fern." #(Well, the refund wasn't really that big, but I figured I could eat peanut butter sandwiches for a year to make up the difference.) Then on an ill-advised trip to Mandolin Bros., I lost it over a satin finish, red sunburst Wayne Benson model. #So, against all better judgment, I'm soon going to be the proud owner of a pair of "Ferns." Might as well enjoy the Golden Age while it's here! #

Bob

[John Flynn]

Sale of expensive "luxury" items like mandolins are completely invalid indicators of the state of the economy
I have to disagree. It is well known that the sale of luxury goods items are a sign of confidence in the economy and the economy rises and falls on consumer confidence as much as it does on "hard" economic factors. While it is true that only a small portion of the population buys mandolins, the vast majority of the population buys some sort of luxury goods at some time. I do agree that you could not use the sale of mandolins to support a de facto conclusion about the economy, but the truth is that the best minds in economics have never come up with any measures that are 100% valid in that regard. I think it is very reasonable to conclude that a rise in the sale of mandolins has some relationship to the enonomy.

Now the sale of banjos is another matter entirely! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

Okay, I'll admit it has been a while since I took an economics course but I seem to remember that luxury items are good indicators precisely because they are optional purchases. #They are indicators of consumer confidence, not necessarily the true state of the economy.