Loar prices tanking with home prices?

[f5loar]

Seems I predicted this 6 months ago it would happen and today I see Gruhn has a really nice all original '24 Virzi Loar for a mere $150,000. Anybody know the story and why such a low price? Either it's a real dog or the seller ask Gruhn for a low price to move it quick. During this upcoming(or is it here?)recession I expect to see many "self forced" sales of high end collectibles. Many using the cash to keep their homes from being repossesed.
Now I'm not saying $150,000 is a cheap price but if the downward trend continues it will allow those that can afford them which more than likely will be collectors you will see Loars headed towards obscurity landing in vaults which will make them go up in price when the economy returns to normal growth.

[Glassweb]

Now I'm not saying $150,000 is a cheap price but if the downward trend continues it will allow those that can afford them which more than likely will be collectors you will see Loars headed towards obscurity landing in vaults which will make them go up in price when the economy returns to normal growth.

Say what?! I'm not quite sure what track you're on here Tom, but I'll only speak about the F5 at Gruhn's. I haven't seen or played this mandolin in person, so I have no idea how it sounds. But just looking at the pictures and reading the description make me think that the asking price isn't all that depressed. Virzi, obvious finish wear, some French polish etc... I don't know... 150 seems low, but not all that low. As we've seen with Loar sales during the past year, the really clean, all original instruments continue to bring record prices. I'm sure if you were to dangle a nice side-bound July 9th or a super-clean Fern Loar out there in the market it would still fetch a record price... even with the recession. Unless the economy really tanks I see vintage American strings continuing their upward trend... although a chill is certainly in the air.

[f5loar]

I'm saying this is the begining of the freeze and George is paving the way. This mandolin shouldn't have been less than $175,000 on a cold day. Wear? Heck you pay $6000 extra to get Gibson to put that kind of natural wear on one. Virzi? Some great sounding Virzis are out of that March 31th batch.

[JeffD]

If the mandolin is really under priced, I would think a consortium could be gotten, together 15 people to invest $10,000 each, for a quick 16% return. Many folks invest that much in equities that return much less.

[kudzugypsy]

i saw that last week on gruhns site and thought the same thing tom.

the problem right now is CREDIT - i dont care how much money you have, pulling $150-$250K out in CASH these days just aint so smart - and even the people with available credit lines arent going to tap into them, and you can forget loans these days. thats is what is stalling the market in ALL collectibles - it was real easy to justify these purchases when they were going up 25-20% a year, but i think those days are over, and like the housing situation, its gonna take YEARS for this stuff to work its way back to normal. i really think we will see prices fall or at least stay where they are (and get reduced by inflation) for the next few years.
what drove these prices up and up was home refinancing and credit lines, (ie easy money) - there is no doubt about that - so i dont see any upside in the vintage market for a while. of course, as was noted, the really premium stuff will still move - but really, that is so small a percentage of instruments - Loars, clean 30's D-28s/D18s and RB flatheads - that those are somewhat immune to most economic conditions.

[Glassweb]

Wear? Heck you pay $6000 extra to get Gibson to put that kind of natural wear on one. Virzi? Some great sounding Virzis are out of that March 31th batch.

I agree with you on these points, but don't you think MOST grassers consider the Virzi to be a huge detraction from the F5 sound?

[evanreilly]

I think the days of thinking of it as the Virzi 'Tone Reducer' are way over. I doubt that anyone nowadays would take one out of any mandolin.
Just because Bill didn't have one in #73987 is no longer the prevalent image/ideal.
Just my $.0125....

[danb]

I think that particular March 31 has just suffered from over-exposure. I'm informed from a source I trust it's a very nice one. I could understand people being "jittery" about it from the investment angle, just about the only ones really pushing the envelope have been mint/perfect/great examples. Is

It's really easy to pick on a particular instrument as indicative of the entire market, but that's not valid. There are some very clear problems in the general well-being of the economy etc, and I'm sure those will affect spending cash

[jk245]

Considering the cost of a "basic" professional violin costing $125,000 up, a fine quality wooden acoustic instrument, like a mandolin, costing over that price is fair to the market. Of course there is a greater demand for a lesser number of violins (by percentage of players to instruments), than there is to the mandolin market.

[markishandsome]

it will allow those that can afford them which more than likely will be collectors you will see Loars headed towards obscurity landing in vaults which will make them go up in price when the economy returns to normal growth.

I don't get it. Prices go down, so only investor-collectors will be able to afford them? That seems completely backwards. I would think lower prices would make these more accessible to average folk without a lot of real estate or stock holdings.

[MikeEdgerton]

Even if it drops to $100,000.00 there will be nothing average about the purchaser.

[f5loar]

You got that right. That's why we are in a pickle with the economy now. Interest rates came down to where more people could get into owning a home and now that's reversed. Homes were overvalued and people borrowed against them and now that the value has lowered they are out of a home and the investors are jumping in to get richer of the poor who couldn't afford their homes. You got the average mandolin picker that couldn't get a new Gibson MM. Those that want more usually have to borrow and that easy money is so tight now the only easy money you could get would be a credit card at 22%. I tell how bad the credit card companies are being hit, they have been sending to my house new credit applications to my Ex wife of 15 years ago. That's pretty hard up if they have to dig back in their records for people who moved 15 years ago. Hey Dan does this one have more photos in the archives? I've not heard the serial number yet.

[jk245]

Even if it drops to $100,000.00 there will be nothing average about the purchaser.

In the prestige art and real estate market the big buyers are not Americans. Rather, they are foreigners who enjoy the benefit of the low cost US Dollar. The Euro conversion to the USD is now at 1.53 (0.652); only five years ago it was at par. Therefore, a $100,000 instrument five years ago now cost them $65,200.

[danb]

Hey Dan does this one have more photos in the archives? I've not heard the serial number yet.

March 31, 1924 #75812

[markishandsome]

Is that the lowest # Virzi? Cool.

Interest rates came down to where more people could get into owning a home and now that's reversed. Homes were overvalued and people borrowed against them and now that the value has lowered they are out of a home and the investors are jumping in to get richer of the poor who couldn't afford their homes. You got the average mandolin picker that couldn't get a new Gibson MM.

I think it's a little sick to compare a perceived dip in value of your quarter-million dollar mandolin to people loosing their homes. You'll get your money back eventually. I'm sure lots of folks who've been hit this year will never own their own house again. Try counting your blessings instead of your dollars. No offense meant.

[AlanN]

A $100,000 Loar for sale? Is there such a thing?

Yep, mine. Email for details, aniederland@yahoo.com

[MikeEdgerton]

In the prestige art and real estate market the big buyers are not Americans. Rather, they are foreigners who enjoy the benefit of the low cost US Dollar. The Euro conversion to the USD is now at 1.53 (0.652); only five years ago it was at par. Therefore, a $100,000 instrument five years ago now cost them $65,200.

A person that buys a $65,000.00 Loar isn't your average mandolin buyer either.

[re simmers]

Loars are like land.....they won't be making any more of it! Housing IS tanking, but land is not tanking nearly as much. And neither are Loars. The buyers are NOT your average mandolin players anymore. I will never be able to afford a Loar, but they've got to be a better investment than anything else right now.

[chip]

The economy really doesn't affect those with the ability to spend $150,000 on a Ferrari, Loar, etc. People with that kind of cash available for luxury items always have expendable money to part with and always will...

[markishandsome]

Oh I don't know. Some people will always have the money for a Loar, barring anything truly disastrous. But there must be some fraction of buyers in between the haves and and havenots who might be able to swing the cash for that Loar they've always wanted if they have a real good year etc...

[John Hill]

Considering the cost of a "basic" professional violin costing $125,000 up, a fine quality wooden acoustic instrument, like a mandolin, costing over that price is fair to the market. Of course there is a greater demand for a lesser number of violins (by percentage of players to instruments), than there is to the mandolin market.

You know, this argument always cracks me up. It's like saying all our friends are jumping off bridges so we should too.

$125K for something that I don't live in or can't write off on taxes...crazy. I'll never be convinced otherwise.

[chip]

[QUOTE]You know, this argument always cracks me up. It's like saying all our friends are jumping off bridges so we should too.
$125K for something that I don't live in or can't write off on taxes...crazy. I'll never be convinced otherwise.

Well...a guess Picasso, Van Gogh, Stradivarius, Loars etc/ and most time tested gems of artistry don't mean much to some people. Thank goodness there are people who understand the value of quality and invest so others will be able to enjoy. I guess mass-produced vs. handmade and one of kind, should be available at your local wal-marts...

[allenhopkins]

So, can I get a sub-prime mortgage on a prime Loar mandolin?

[JeffD]

$125K for something that I don't live in or can't write off on taxes...crazy. I'll never be convinced otherwise.

Its all relative. From where I am I can whole heartedly agree with you. But I sure am trying to get to the place where it doesn't seem so crazy.

[Glassweb]

One may not be able to invest in a Loar, but there are so many SUPERB mandolins being built these days (by luthiers and companies) it hardly matters anymore. Not saying that a great Loar isn't worth the investment, but you don't have to sell the farm to own and play an exquisite mandolin.