So what is the "real" value of a Loar in today's world?

[Rich Michaud]

I have followed this thread with great interest. As I said in an earlier post, I am interested in buying a Loar and have been gathering information on available Loars, prices, and tax consequences. It is somewhat like buying a house in an upscale neighborhood in a declining market. The first proposition at issue for me is whether there is a market price and if so, is it trending up or down?
My limited research found at least 15 Loars for sale ranging from $75,000 to $180,000. One has been for sale for 3 1/2 years by a retailer. One had a retail price of $165,000 that was recently reduced to $135,000. Carter's recently reduced the list price for one of its Loars from $175,000 to $160,000. The instruments seem to sit for long periods of time and therefore are not very liquid without a reduced sale price. Private sales are less for obvious reasons. From a consumer point of view, it appears doubtful that a purchase of a Loar would be an investment that would allow for a profitable resale or even a return of the payment in addition to the carry costs (insurance repairs and the like) and possible consignment fee and taxes. When I look around to see who else would purchase a Loar if I had to sell it-I do not see many takers given the price range and the worry of a declining market. Moreover, if one has to sell, the competition of 10-15 other similarly prices Loars makes it difficult to sell given the other options. I have concluded that buying a Loar as an investment is a bad idea (unless the purchase price was very low).

The next important question for me, is the instrument that intrinsically special? I have spent years trying different mandolins and am amazed at the current mandolin craftsmen (and women) who make great instruments. The most recent Dudenbostel F5 that I have is truly amazing among others. The prices for great mandolins pale in contrast to Loar prices. Even assuming the Holy Grail sound of a Loar (if it exists), how much better to the human ear (and for that matter to an older adult's ear) can a Loar be? To date, I do not have a satisfactory answer to this without continuing my quest by playing as many Loars as I can get my hands on.

Despite the risks of a down market and other adverse factors, there is the appeal of playing, hearing, touching and smelling a great sounding Loar. I admit that the mystique of the Loar remains part of my mando psyche and drives me forward on my quest for the Holy Grail...or one of the Holy Grails..(I just looked up Holy Grail-"a vessel, dish or stone with miraculous powers that provide happiness, eternal youth or sustenance in infinite abundance".) I'll take the Loar with the happiness, eternal youth and food for the soul.

Rich

[Spruce]

I have concluded that buying a Loar as an investment is a bad idea...

I respectfully disagree, but I really don't have anything to back it up.
It's just a hunch...
Let's look back on this thread in 10 years, and see who got lucky...

The next important question for me, is the instrument that intrinsically special? I have spent years trying different mandolins and am amazed at the current mandolin craftsmen (and women) who make great instruments. The most recent Dudenbostel F5 that I have is truly amazing among others. The prices for great mandolins pale in contrast to Loar prices. Even assuming the Holy Grail sound of a Loar (if it exists), how much better to the human ear (and for that matter to an older adult's ear) can a Loar be? To date, I do not have a satisfactory answer to this without continuing my quest by playing as many Loars as I can get my hands on.

Ya know, it's amazing how craftsmen have been able to duplicate--and often surpass--the vintage holy grail instruments that are supposedly unique...
Strads, iconic amplifiers, 'Bursts, Neumann U47s, Neve pre-amps, Selmer-Maccaferris, and yes, Loars...
I'd take my '59 Les Paul copy over any 'Burst I've ever played, if money were no object...
And owning any of the above can be a real PITA--worrying all the time about damage, repairs, etc.

That being said, there's obviously something very special about owning one of these puppies, so people pay very dearly to do so...

[Jeff Mando]

We are confusing "investment" with "having a cool thing to own" -- a signed Loar would definitely be the latter. $175K in the bank in a crummy 4.1% 12 month CD would yield $7175 annually in interest income. The Loar will not do that, you will probably lose money if you buy at $175K. So, are you ready?.......owning one costs you $7175 a year to enjoy having. (assuming you have the disposable income to buy one) Some people can afford this expenditure with no affect on their lifestyle. A professional musician can write this off on their taxes......

[JFDilmando]

It's all a matter of which Loar you can buy, what that Loar sounds like to those whom you trust, and you, more than anyone, and what you are required to shell out to obtain that particular Loar. That becomes the standard by which you consider it "worth to you". Whether that will be a good investment or not, can be determined by monetary measures, or by measures of pride of ownership, or bragging rights, or the sense you have when you sit down to play it, either night after night, or on those special occasions that mean a lot to you.... $$, francs, pound value is but one measure.... but folks like to simplify it in their minds so... have at it. Ultimately, when you pass it onto another, you can take stock, with the knowledge of what you "paid" for it, and try and come to grips with what you recieved from it over the years of enjoyment you received in all the measures you might think, and stack that up to what you get in monetary terms with the passing of the baton.

The money thing gets in the way of many thoughts... I always liked the idea "if you have to ask about the price, you can't afford it". that only goes so far, but from my perspective having owned several Loars over the years, if I had to think about the purchases as an investment in pure dollar terms, I really shouldn't be buying a Loar. That said, to this point in my life, I have never passed a Loar onto another at less than the $$ I had "in" the instrument. BUT that is NOT the reason to have a Loar in your hands. My life experience has been enriched by the association with these great instruments, and I play them every day. If I didn't, or couldn't, they would be gone to another who could appreciate them in a heartbeat. In fact, I will be passing one of them on in very short order... to whom, has yet to be determined, but it is time to share again...as far as "value", ref this thread, the next custodian, will be very happy.

[woodwizard]

Or perhaps if Bill hadn't owned it, its value would be around $35,000 today. (Wait for it ...)

And probably would be in much better shape

[Northwest Steve]

We are confusing "investment" with "having a cool thing to own" -- a signed Loar would definitely be the latter. $175K in the bank in a crummy 4.1% 12 month CD would yield $7175 annually in interest income. The Loar will not do that, you will probably lose money if you buy at $175K. So, are you ready?.......owning one costs you $7175 a year to enjoy having. (assuming you have the disposable income to buy one) Some people can afford this expenditure with no affect on their lifestyle. A professional musician can write this off on their taxes......

Good point in simple monetary terms. Can you point out were you are currently getting 4.1% on a 12 mo CD, I am sure there are others that would be interested as well.

[Jeff Mando]

Good point in simple monetary terms. Can you point out were you are currently getting 4.1% on a 12 mo CD, I am sure there are others that would be interested as well.

I was trying to use an easy example with low risk to make a point. As JFDilmando says there are reasons to own a Loar other than the rate of return and I agree. Many things are like that. It is admission, if you will, into an exclusive club that will enhance your musical life in other ways. I have a car collector friend with close to 40 vintage cars, total value around $400K -- does his "investment" earn him a huge return? No, but it is part of his identity and "what he does." It is a "fun" thing to do with a part of your life savings, if you are lucky enough to have come out that well.

Someone like Dave Ramsey would scoff at "only" earning 4% on your money. He frequently talks of 12% annually, with years of 14-18% possible -- plus long-term gains assisted by compounding interest. Someone my age clearly remembers late 70's CD interest rates in the high teens as commonplace -- you could literally live off your interest back then -- harder, if not impossible to do today without risk. Speaking of risk, when eBay first burst onto the scene, I would buy a nice used Les Paul locally for $1000 (often less than that), I'd list it on eBay and sell it for an average of $1400-1500. Again, not the "top" money, but an average return. You can quickly see I was making 40% on my money in ONE MONTH. I did this every month for a year, selling 12 used guitars (very easy to do) -- so my interest was 480% annually. And the same $1000 bought 12 Les Pauls over a course of a year -- pretty cool! Very easy to do, but high risk considering having to ship 12 instruments and being handled by non-musicians, etc., but very very possible. Let's say you do this with 20 instruments a month.....you can quickly see that a small $20K investment, would scale meteorically in a very small amount of time, but again it has risk. Of course, you can drop a Loar, just as easily while practicing in your own home....

My larger point is that I'm a musician and this is what I like to do with my time and money. IF my hobby was real estate, I probably would own several investment properties, instead of a room full of musical instruments. If I woke up every morning and followed the stock market, I would probably be aware of certain trends, because I would spend a lot of time studying such things -- but instead, I play music. And, if I were selling 20 instruments a month, I would no longer have time for music as I would be running a business, wouldn't I?

Obviously, I'm not trying to give financial advise, just making an observation on a forum and having fun.....we all justify our hobbies in our own ways.

[mandovance]

i think the entire vintage instrument market is a bad "investment" at this point. i'm 33, would love to own an old d-28 or f4, could, but won't pull the trigger because i think these are going to rapidly depreciate. the guitar and mandolin market is a reflection of boomer interests and boomer bank accounts. younger generations have nowhere near the interest in these instruments nor the money to buy them at current prices. when the older guys start getting sick or dropping off, you're going to see a ton of these instruments hit the market at the same time with relatively little interest on the other side. couple that with the explosion in high quality boutique instruments in the past 20 years and there are simply too many instruments out there. my generation was more into rock and the generation coming up is knee-deep into electronic music. investments are meant to be sold at some point, and i wouldn't want to be on the sell side of this market in 10-20 years.

[Folkmusician.com]

JSanta makes an excellent point about student debt. But there's something even greater at work here than income or disposable cash. While millennial may be the target demographic that's missing in instrument purchases, it extends a bit up the age ladder. What's more at work is a lessened desire to own stuff. Real estate agents in our area tell me that millennial (we'll just use that as a lose definition of age bracket) aren;t looking for the bigger house on a large lot. Something down close to town and smaller is more what they want. They don't really seem to care if they even own it.

I believe this is one of the biggest factors in play. Obviously, the economy is/was a major factor, but as the economy has made some comeback, the instrument market is still in a decline. I am right at that age where my friends crossover into both the adjacent generations. A small percentage of Gen X (me) is embracing downsizing and I do have a few friends that have become full on minimalists. Speaking for myself, my combined amount of "stuff" is making me unhappy. The maintenance and worry has slowly diminished the enjoyment of owning things for me. This is not happening with the majority of Gen X, but it is enough to have some effect.

Now take Millennials... A much higher percentage is not interested in amassing possessions. I won't say the majority, just a higher percentage than Gen X. Like Charlie points out, it is common for Millennials to not be interested in houses, cars, etc... There is a shift toward experiences, vs. possessions. As they age, this may change, but how likely is it that they focus in on vintage instruments?

It is too early to know what will happen with Gen Z, though we see the trend.

Now, you think instrument collecting is a strange market... Take a look at tech collectors. The price of vintage computers, original iPhones, iPods, etc... Now most of us agree that the highly collectible vintage instruments represent some of the best instruments ever made, and at the very least they hold their own against modern equivalents. This just doesn't apply to something like owning a first generation iPod. It is very strange. So there you go... There is no market for a $175k Loar, but let's spend $90k on an iPod.

Apple I

The original Apple Computer, the Apple I, is considered one of the most valuable and collectable computers in the world. Only 575 units were ever sold, making it the rarest one around. Today, there are only 61 confirmed to exist, only six of which are functional.

In 2013, an Apple 1 sold at Christie's Auction for $390,000. Several have also appeared on eBay over the years, where the highest successful bid was $43,000.

My take... There is a smaller percentage of people interested in owning items of any sort, let alone high dollar items. Of those that are in the market to buy desirable high dollar items, less are focused on instruments. It is not the inflated asking price that keeps these Loars from moving. There are plenty of people that can afford the asking prices.

[DataNick]

This one on consignment at Elderly for $135K...that $120K quoted reference earlier is apparently right on the money!



24 Loar F5 at Elderly

[Charlieshafer]

This one on consignment at Elderly for $135K...that $120K quoted reference earlier is apparently right on the money!



24 Loar F5 at Elderly

Assuming it even sells for that! Right now, we're in an odd period. About the only "collectibles" or high ticket items that are also considered investments that are selling are rare automobiles and Strads. I'm thinking trying to guess if this is a long-term trend is a mistake at this point. On the other hand, after a re-set period as the newer collectors consider what's valuable to them, a lot of what we thought was a sure bet may be left out in the cold. Old Martins, Loars and Elvis records may be in the dustbin of desirability for all but a few zealots. It's impossible to tell, but if there's a turnaround, and Loars start trending upwards, it'll be a long time coming.There's simply too much available, and the few people who might be interested in acquiring one won't do enough to nudge the market. All it takes is a couple of sellers to need to raise some cash, lower their price for a quick sale, and there goes the market even further.

[mandroid]

Will it enhance your income, playing it professionally?

[Spruce]

Will it enhance your income, playing it professionally?

No...
...that, and it will certainly enhance your stress levels...

[DataNick]

No...
...that, and it will certainly enhance your stress levels...

All the honor, reverence, and respect due to you Bruce...I'm questioning though why this is the case?

I treat my 94' F5L like it is indeed a Loar; almost never leaves my side, goes to work with me and lives in my cubicle, goes to the store, movie theater, I mean literally EVERYWHERE!

Why? Because it's a really special mandolin that from what I've been told by several pros and cognoscenti, is pretty darn close to a Loar, and my financial situation and life in general precludes me from ever replacing it. We live in the constant threat of wildfires here in SoCal, there's been 2 mandatory evacuations where I live in the past 15 years and I don't trust life. I trust myself, and God, and so to the best of my ability I eliminate worry from the equation by keeping it at my side.

Aside from insurance costs, what's the diff?

[mandroid]

Just never set it down and turn your back for a second..

Refer to the Stolen Strad violin, taken at a London coffee shop when the owner checked her phone..

[DataNick]

Just never set it down and turn your back for a second..

Refer to the Stolen Strad violin, taken at a London coffee shop when the owner checked her phone..

Shoulder strap...

[Spruce]

All the honor, reverence, and respect due to you Bruce...I'm questioning though why this is the case?

I treat my 94' F5L like it is indeed a Loar; almost never leaves my side, goes to work with me and lives in my cubicle, goes to the store, movie theater, I mean literally EVERYWHERE!

Why? Because it's a really special mandolin that from what I've been told by several pros and cognoscenti, is pretty darn close to a Loar, and my financial situation and life in general precludes me from ever replacing it. We live in the constant threat of wildfires here in SoCal, there's been 2 mandatory evacuations where I live in the past 15 years and I don't trust life. I trust myself, and God, and so to the best of my ability I eliminate worry from the equation by keeping it at my side.

Aside from insurance costs, what's the diff?

For you, apparently no dif...
For me (based on lugging around a Monteleone that was only worth a measly 25K), a huge dif...

[JFDilmando]

Anyone that is going to get stressed out by having an instrument.... any instrument, Loar, or Monteleone, or Brand X that costs $110, should not have that instrument.... Simple. If ownership of anything, freaks someone out... either find a way to get over it, or remove the cause...
No one is suggesting that any of those folks, that shake their heads and say that they would be a nervous wreck with a Loar, should have one.... Simple.
I fail to understand the contribution where folks state "I could never do that" regarding cost, or stress... so what ? The implication is that since they can't or couldn't then others shouldn't either.... I don't get it.

[DataNick]

I don't know if I'm the object of the last post or not, but I don't get stressed out. I figured out how to eliminate the factor of variance by just keeping mine with me at all times. I treat it as an extension of me and am privileged without stress to be the caretaker of such a fine instrument.

Can't speak for others, but I'm in control of my mando situation...YMMV

[JFDilmando]

no.. was not responding to your note datanick... just commenting in general on all the folks chiming in and saying they could never pay so much money for an instrument, or how can anyone deal with the stress of having such an instrument...
well... some people can't imagine going on a roller coaster, either... has nothing to do with others lives and what they like to do or what instruments they like to have

[DataNick]

Gotcha John!

[Fretbear]

"That damned thing......"

Norman Blake talking about his Loar (now Nancy's)

[DataNick]

I've got a question for those participating in this thread and for former/current Loar owners in particular. I was having back channel discussions off-Cafe with a former Loar owner who educated me on the phenomena that the real-deal Loars have an "it" factor in tone, volume, and playability. It is recognizable only by those whose palette sensibilities to such things has been tuned. The main characteristic attributed as responsible for the instrument having this quality is its age (>90 years). It is said that a person like Dawg, can pick up a Loar and within minutes of playing the instrument can tell you if the Loar has "it" or not.

So here's my 2 part question:

A. Did Monroe's Loar at 23 years of age in 1946, or one of Apollon's Loars of 10-15 years of age in the late 1930s have the "it" factor? Those whose palettes are so attuned can judge/measure this by the recordings made with those instruments.

B. If the answer to question A is yes, then does it not stand to reason that today's luthiers (Gilchrist, Dude, Nugget, Gibson, Monteleone, etc) having produced instruments that are 10 to 23 years old and older should also have the "it" factor?

It is said that Steve Gilchrist is building mandolins currently on his approximations of what a brand new Loar era mandolin would have played and sounded like; so apparently there is a belief in the possibilities of this to be true!

[Charlieshafer]

uh oh.. now we get back to the old "new vs. old" thing that was debated in the Strad vs. new violin thing. No one knows what they sounded like when new, they're just old enough that a 20 year old person back then, presumably just old enough to hear and appreciate the differences, would be roughly 114 years old when playing a brand new Loar. I think Gilchrist's idea is interesting, and worthy of merit, but there's still guesswork going on.

The main point of value still goes back to the bulk of younger pros feeling that a Loar is worth it as a career choice. Essentially, does it make you play better or sound better, will it enhance your career by spending about $165,000 more than necessary? Clearly, the answer is no. We're talking about Joe K. Walsh's Nugget "A", or Andy Statman's old beat up Gibson "A", or Josh Pinkham's Red Diamond. Dawg's plugging Giacomels. The younger guys just out of Berklee (that's more local for me, so I see what they're playing) are pretty much all playing decent things they got used. Thile's the only guy who really gets a high level of visibility nationally, and outside of the mandolin-geek-specific community, who plays one.

So basically, Loars are not for the professional player anymore, like a Strad would be for a violinist, they've become something for wealthy guys to say they have. And, romance and pleasure of playing aside, it doesn't say much for holding value, especially when you consider with all the talk about them on the Cafe here over the years, they're still just sitting on the shelves of the dealers.

[Timbofood]

If I had one, I would not really treat it any differently than my current (un impressive looking but nicely voiced) mandolin. Treat everything with respect and it is not a burden but a joy to own. Agreed, if you are just going to be "looking over your shoulder" for fear of theft or damage, don't buy one. It's like people that buy expensive watches (cars, clothes, whatever) and do nothing but either flaunt or fret over them. Value is not always financial it can be egotistical or simply the satisfaction that you have something built at (what may have been at the time) the apex of design.