Why are so many Loars for sale?

[bootinz]

I count at least 6 (plus one 'dola and one '27 Fern) for sale from stringed instrument dealers and one for sale in the Cafe classifieds. That doesn't count any that might be for sale privately.
Is it the recession? Are these just not great sounding mandolins? None of them seem to be selling. And the asking prices range widely.
I know this has all been discussed before but I can't remember this many for sale at one time!

[Flowerpot]

I don't know for sure, but it might be the same reason that people are selling stocks and gold. Right now, times are hard, credit is tight, and cash is king.

[Glassweb]

I don't know for sure, but it might be the same reason that people are selling stocks and gold. Right now, times are hard, credit is tight, and cash is king.

I can't speak for the sellers, but I believe many folks are looking to fatten up their bank accounts right about now...

[Eddie Sheehy]

I guess some see a Loar s their nest-egg to back up their 401K.... and the 401K's lost about 40% value so far this month.... time to csh the backup nest-egg.... unfortunately they are not selling. Now is a time to buy mandos not sell them. Prices are way down even on the medium to low-priced mandos. Martin Style B's are going for under $800. Last year, Style A's were fetching a grand.

[jim_n_virginia]

It's the poor economy I suspect. The one person I know who is selling theirs would really rather not sell it but.....

it's equivalent to cashing a long held CD or fund.

[TomTyrrell]

One thing that brought some out of the closet was Elderly's listing of the "new" Loar in Denver. When somebody who has had one for quite a while sees the $225K price tag they start thinking maybe it is time to sell that old mandolin and buy a better house. I haven't seen any lately that were priced low enough to cause a person who hadn't been looking for one to buy it.

I can't personally recall any long period of time when you couldn't find a Loar-signed F5 if you wanted one and had the money. It seems like there was always at least one dealer who knew of one that was available even if they didn't have it in their shop.

[Glassweb]

I'm curious to know how the market for high-end violins (Strads etc...) has been affected by the current world economic "crisis"... anyone out there have some insight on this?

[f5loar]

I have personally picked on just about all these for sale and it's not because of the sound. While some do have the Virzi they still have that "loar" sound if everyone can agree on what that is. And I know from talking with other collectors that Loars have privately changed hands in the $240K range. I would just called it the personal "trickle down" effect in the current economic conditions. You sell the house, you sell the cars, your wife files for divorce and then you get rid of the Loar and in that order.
Then you can pay for the lawyers, bill collectors and hopefully have enough left over for an insurance policy for your funneral expenses cause your
ex-wife ain't going to see to it you have a decent burial now.

[JEStanek]

How are you Loar owners treating your wives/husbands? You might have bigger problems than needing to sell a collectable. :whistling:

Jamie

[Tom C]

As I heard Mike Marshall once say... "They are more expensive than they should be."
That said, in my current position, I could use $200K more than a nice mando.

[mandolooter]

As I heard Mike Marshall once say... "They are more expensive than they should be."

I wouldn't argue with that statement but the buyers market decides the price not I.
I want a Nugget A is all....hahaha!

[JeffD]

Maybe there is a perception that the market price for Loar's is going to go down, so sell them now. Self fulfilling prophecy in some ways.

I think its hard to judge a trend from a handfull of examples.

[Weagle]

I think if someone wants a mandolin like that and can afford it, the mandolin is sold. Unfortunately, I do not travel in those circles and would have a hard time coming up with the money and if I did; I wonder if I would part with the money to own one.

I would like to have that Gibson F5 Peter Mix has for sale buuuut I have to sell some stuff first.

Life truly is an adventure.

Weagle

[Mark Seale]

Even at Gruhn's where there are 3 F5's and 1 Mandola, the price range is fairly wide. It's an interesting time in the market.

[Links]

Let's face it, even people who can afford Loars now realize that when the economy is tanking that they probably will not have to pay a premium price. For those Loar owners who are in great financial shape and will never "need" to sale should have no worries. For those that have leveraged the farm to buy one may have a problem. Those that bought them many years ago will still be in good shape.

It's funny that when things are going great, practically everyone agrees that you do not buy high dollar instrument as an investment but "because you love them" (I suscribe to that theory). However, when the economy starts to tank, almost everyone who has high dollar instruments insists that they are great investments and will hold their value. I think they are wrong - but hope like heck that they arn't!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)

[JeffD]

Let's face it,

I don't see that six examples of a particular nich antique musical instrument that only a specialist would know is valuable are seen for sale - that you can conclude anything about the economy.

The other day my friend who runs a music store said he just sold four high end brand new pianos in a week. He tells me that is a record for his little store.

I dunno.

[John Flynn]

I'm curious to know how the market for high-end violins (Strads etc...) has been affected by the current world economic "crisis"... anyone out there have some insight on this?
This is not a complete answer, but a piece of the puzzle. A guy I know is a bassist for a major symphony and his wife is the second chair violinist. He told me that most of the really high-end string instruments in symphonies are not owned by the people who play them, but by investors, predominately Japanese. They "place" the instruments with top players, with the idea that having the instruments played by big names will increase the value. I don't think you have that dynamic with Loars, so it would be a different ball game. Sometimes investments in things with intrinsic value, like musical instruments, can increase in tough times, because investors are looking for alternatives to "paper" investments, which are not doing as well.

[loardreamer]

I don't understand why you can buy one at one store for around 150k and then at another store the price is closer to 250k i could understand it better if the one for 250 was mint but that is not the case.

[Timbofood]

Any bunch of you want to form a consortium and have me be the player? I'd be happy to oblige!

[Glassweb]

I don't understand why you can buy one at one store for around 150k and then at another store the price is closer to 250k i could understand it better if the one for 250 was mint but that is not the case.

who's asking $250K for a Loar? i must have missed that one! but in any case, an asking price and a sale price are two different things... i'm not really aware of any recent "public" Loar sales...

[JEStanek]

Some Loars are more valued than others, for instance one from the same date as WSM's may fetch a good bit more than one from some other date. The presence of a virzi could impact sale price. I'm f a r from a Loar expert but this is what I've learned on this site over the years.

Jamie

[Glassweb]

Some Loars are more valued than others, for instance one from the same date as WSM's may fetch a good bit more than one from some other date. The presence of a virzi could impact sale price. I'm f a r from a Loar expert but this is what I've learned on this site over the years.

Jamie

true enough... a mint, sidebound July 9th Loar would fetch a considerably higher price than say, a mint Feb 18th Loar with a Virzi... regardless of which mandolin was better sounding, had prettier woods etc... that's just the nature of the Loar market...

[loardreamer]

who's asking $250K for a Loar? i must have missed that one! but in any case, an asking price and a sale price are two different things... i'm not really aware of any recent "public" Loar sales...

Greg boyd has one they have since reduced the price to $222,400 and it is a july 9th but the price was around 250k before they reduced it. While you can find a loar at gruhns for close to a hundred grand lower

[f5loar]

One at Gruhn's has a refinished back, the other is a '24 with Virzi and is in VG- condition hence the lower prices there. The last really nice Loar changed hands privately at $240,000. I know of several that could easily fetch over the $250,000 mark should they come to market. I've not heard of one over that lately. You see the same price structure in vintage cars.

[f5loar]

Also noticed the one at Boyds while is a July 9th, same date as WSM it is not a side bound like WSM which in the Loar world is not the same. That would explain it being less and reduced at this time. Also it's not near mint either.
You might ask why binding could effect the price some $25,000. Let's compare it to a '57 Chevy with the original stock V8 vs. the same '57 Chevy with original 6 cylinder. Big difference there in price if both Chevy's in same condition. Call it sheer luck of the draw on that sunny day in January of 1945 in Florida but WSM picked a pretty good one from a pretty good batch of Loars from 1923. He never felt the need to find a better one.

[danb]

Not sure who owns the July 9 at Boyd's now, but it's one we played at Loarfest West Tom- nice sounding example.

like Tom says, a lot of these change hand completely below the radar.

[loardreamer]

Its funny how we were just talking about the prices of the loar at boyds being close to 250 k and the one at gruhns being 160k.Since last night the one at gruhns jumped from 160 to 190k

[f5loar]

In fairness to Gruhn's the July 9, '23 priced at $160,000 is still there and priced at $160,000 with refinished back. I've never known Gruhn's to raise a price on any instrument after it was listed. What you saw was a new listing at $190,000, a March 24, '24 with Virzi Fern Loar. They also listed a May 29, '23 in really fine condition for $195,000. So Gruhn's now has 4 Loars and 1 Fern for sale at once. They may be a record at one time for Gruhn's.
These 2 new ones this week might be an indication that some collectors are cashing out due to other investments tanking.

[squirrelabama]

The July 9 at Greg Boyd's belongs to Hal Johnson.

[loardreamer]

In fairness to Gruhn's the July 9, '23 priced at $160,000 is still there and priced at $160,000 with refinished back. I've never known Gruhn's to raise a price on any instrument after it was listed. What you saw was a new listing at $190,000, a March 24, '24 with Virzi Fern Loar. They also listed a May 29, '23 in really fine condition for $195,000. So Gruhn's now has 4 Loars and 1 Fern for sale at once. They may be a record at one time for Gruhn's.
These 2 new ones this week might be an indication that some collectors are cashing out due to other investments tanking.

My mistake guys i guess i should look more closely before i open my mouth.Boy this is the most loars i have seen for sale in quite a while.

[Fretbear]

Yeah, it's something to see that much Loar on the floor....
As good a place to park a million bucks as anywhere else these days.

[Scotti Adams]

Also noticed the one at Boyds while is a July 9th, same date as WSM it is not a side bound like WSM which in the Loar world is not the same. That would explain it being less and reduced at this time. Also it's not near mint either.
You might ask why binding could effect the price some $25,000. Let's compare it to a '57 Chevy with the original stock V8 vs. the same '57 Chevy with original 6 cylinder. Big difference there in price if both Chevy's in same condition. Call it sheer luck of the draw on that sunny day in January of 1945 in Florida but WSM picked a pretty good one from a pretty good batch of Loars from 1923. He never felt the need to find a better one.

Last I knew..binding doesnt effect the performance of a Loar...such as your comparison between the '57's. Could it be it fetchs more because thats what Bill had?...sure it does.

[woodwizard]

Last I knew..binding doesnt effect the performance of a Loar...such as your comparison between the '57's. Could it be it fetchs more because thats what Bill had?...sure it does.

I concur :)

[f5loar]

Never underestimate the power of a side bound July 9, 1923 Lloyd Loar.
I think most who know would agree there is something mystical about those particular models.

[SternART]

It may very well be like Tom suggested stock market/investment related. Possibly investments tanking..... or if the market is undervalued now, for some investors it might indicate a buying opportunity that possibly would exceed Loar appreciation. Definitely the most Loars I've ever seen for sale at one time, in retail establishments.

[Booie]

Stocks can become worthless overnight. There are no more 20's Gibsons/Loars being made (as compared to, say, US dollars, printed by whim and fiat). Vintage instruments are a great place to park your money! I still can't afford a Loar, but there are also deals on A2z's, F4's Stahl/Larson instruments...With most other investments, the only "entertainment" value is watching the price fluctuations online; we get to play these beautiful works of art while we watch them appreciate (and sometimes go down a small amount)in value. Really (in my book) the only good reason to sell a mandolin is to buy another (more valuable) one!

[Zigeuner]

I can think of a very good reason why someone would be sellng something like a Loar mandolin right now. Many of you will recall that we have a new president. LOL. Among other treats, he has promised to seriously increase the capital gains tax. Assuming that such a seller might have to put his 200K + in the bank and show it for tax purposes, a sale now, prior to expected increases in the capital gains rate would make sense.

Of course, it depends upon one's base from the purchase price. Assume a purchase price of $50K some years back. Assume further a sale price of $250K and that the capital gains rate goes from 28% to 39%. That would be $200K either at 28% (56K) or $200K at 39% ($78K). That would be a difference, for the sake of discussion, of $22K. Thus, assuming that he rate does increase as promised, that would be the equvalent of throwing a little more than $20,000 out the window on the freeway if the sale is done at the higher rate.

But I have to ask, is 6 instruments really so many? That doesn't seem all that many to me. I presume that there are lot more that people actually play such a mandolin rather than holding one for an investment. Just my opninion on all of this.

If someone else above has already advanced the same theory, please forgive. Since I will probably never own one, it's all sort of theoretical, at least to me. :)

[f5loar]

Your reasoning makes sense especially if you go through a public sale like a well known dealer, however it seems many of the high end buys in collectibles do tend to trade hands in cash between two private parties without a receipt so I doubt you would see many reporting capital gains on their sales. I could be wrong about this but let's just say that's how I hear it.

[Zigeuner]

Your reasoning makes sense especially if you go through a public sale like a well known dealer, however it seems many of the high end buys in collectibles do tend to trade hands in cash between two private parties without a receipt so I doubt you would see many reporting capital gains on their sales. I could be wrong about this but let's just say that's how I hear it.

That's probably true. It raises another question, however. What does a person do these days with a couple hundred thousand in cash from a private sale? Put it in a shoe box? Keep it at home in a safe? Neither of those choices sounds like a good alternative. I guess if the authorities discovered that amount of money, you could prove that it came from sale. On the other hand, you would still have to pay taxes on it, hopefully with only a penalty rather than a charge of income tax evasion.

The powers that be are quite vigiilant these days. They look long and hard for money launderers, tax evaders and so forth. Additionally, the buyer might have to explain such a transfer and state where the money went.

I also understand that a federal report is required for a deposit of cash of $10K or more at a bank. It would be difficult indeeed to put that amount of cash back in your bank account or into an investment without making such a report and paying taxes.

Private parties are still free to contract among themselves. The problem comes the next day after the sale. What to do with the proceeds?

Just my thougts, FWTW.

:popcorn:

[Scott Tichenor]

A reminder that posts entering into discussions of politics, including criticisms of the current or future administration will be removed without notice (and have been just now). We have clearly established guidelines that have been in place for years in regard to this and will vigorously enforce them. Please, we've all had enough of politics for the time being. Take it elsewhere.

From the posting guidelines:

- Topics started for or end up being used to discuss religion, politics or sex as well as other hot button issues meant to create discord are prohibited. Posts or threads deemed inappropriate or unrelated to our subject matter are subject to immediate removal at the discretion of the board owner and/or lead moderator.

[Richard Walz]

Thanks Scott... My own 2 cents on this is that the Loar instruments are truly over-valued. There are some cracking good modern makers, why would anyone pay so much for an instrument? I was offered a 1923 Loar F-5 by the late Albert Bellson (my teacher when I was a kid). I honestly preferred the F4 (same era) and especially his Lyon and Healy Pro A mandolins. I've played 3 Loars and liked them well enough but I didn't find them better than my brother's Lloyd LaPlant F5 or the F5 signed by Steve Carlson that I do own. I guess I don't get it:).

[Rick Schmidlin]

I like the ones that the current owners bought for under $15,000.00. back in the good ol' daze.

[allenhopkins]

What does a person do these days with a couple hundred thousand in cash from a private sale? Put it in a shoe box? Keep it at home in a safe? Neither of those choices sounds like a good alternative...What to do with the proceeds?

Easy! Buy another mandolin (or several)!

[Keith Erickson]

Just my observations.....

....yes there seems to be a more Loar's appearing on the market these days. With that being said, the prices have not dropped on Loars. They are holding in value or increasing in value.

Maybe there are not enough Loars on the market to drive down the prices? At least that would be the thoughts on supply and demand curves.

[JeffD]

Stocks can become worthless overnight. ... Vintage instruments are a great place to park your money! ... we get to play these beautiful works of art while we watch them appreciate (and sometimes go down a small amount)in value.


Yes stocks can become worthless overnight, but in general its not difficult to pick ones that won't.

Vintage instruments as an investment is as dicey as any collectalble, coins, dolls, stamps, paintings, classic cars. You have to be an expert, and not an exert on the instrument only but also in the instrument markets and what affects them.

And I could never play with the instruments that are investments - for two reasons: one is the risk of ware and damage, and two is the risk that my love for the instrument would cloud my judgement when selling.

Seems to me one has to decide if one is an investor, a collector, a dealer, or a user (player), and that trouble arises when one isn't sure - so a bad decision as an investor can be rationalized as a good decision as a collector or player.

I am a player - so I don't care how my instruments will appreciate. I would not love them more if they did, or less if they didn't, and barring extreme emergencies (compared to which consistency with this post is the least of my worries) I intend to keep them for ever, or if I do sell them, it will be to upgrade to something I want more.

In general, and current times don't invalidate it - I think its better to invest in things I am not going to fall in love with or be tempted to play with or take to a festival: securties, mutual funds, etc. etc. The occational windfall in a mandolin sale doesn't change this either - one would never invest retirement money or even vacation money in something whose only recommendation is an occational newsworthy windfall. Thats what the lottery is for.

[Cullowheekid]

Post intended to antagonize deleted:
Avoid flaming or trolling – posts intended to create discord, antagonize others or create general mayhem. Be polite and courteous at all times. (http://www.mandolincafe.com/forum/faq.php)

[Links]

Of course, it depends upon one's base from the purchase price. Assume a purchase price of $50K some years back. Assume further a sale price of $250K and that the capital gains rate goes from 28% to 39%. That would be $200K either at 28% (56K) or $200K at 39% ($78K). That would be a difference, for the sake of discussion, of $22K. Thus, assuming that he rate does increase as promised, that would be the equvalent of throwing a little more than $20,000 out the window on the freeway if the sale is done at the higher rate.

Sorry for something that might have been "political" in my last post. I'll try and make my post again without it!

Zig was indeed correct in that the capital gains on collectibles is indeed 28% (I was wrong!) I would think, however, that there would be certain circumstances where an instrument could be subject to ordinary long-term gains (15%), such in the case of someone who purchases it to use in their profession (i.e. Rob McCoury - professional muscian). Of course that is the exception and not the case of most of us. In the case of a professional music dealer, I assume any profit would be taxed as ordinary income.

And finally, you can ditto what JeffD (and Zig too) said, as I consider his post right on the money!

[Glassweb]

I can't recall a time when I've seen so many Loars for sale... and some of them are, no doubt, superb examples. Who knows what the future may or may not bring, but if you're looking for a nice Loar it may be the ideal moment to negotiate yourself a great deal on the "real deal".

[Bob A]

I've been watching prices on other collectibles drop steadily. I suspect a better deal might be had as things go deeper into the tank. I just hope there's a bottom down there somewhere.

[bootinz]

Sometimes that line of thinking can lead you to miss the "bottom". I'm pretty sure owning a Loar
is a good investment. I'd say if you've got the $$$ buy a few!

[crazymandolinist]

Why do the prices of collectibles drop this far in times like these? So that people BUY THEM. Just count on that, it's the way this market works, and logic dictates that as long as we keep these markets flowing, they'll still be there, the worst thing that could happen is everyone who has the opprtunity to buy these things now, and want to, don't. I'm not one for investments and keeping things unused. I get mildly sad when I hear of people keeping their beautiful cars, new or old, in their garages, or keeping their instruments in their cases. Stuff that's meant to be be played with shuld be enjoyed to the fullest! That's why they exist!

[woodwizard]

This may be a little off topic. But ... Well I for one would buy a Loar in a heartbeat if I had the means too. I think it would be a pretty decent investment too. The only thing is ... that would mean having 200+K more than I have right now. Some think they would do something different if they all of a sudden had an extra 200k but the way I look at is I'm doing ok with what I've got at this point so I would not miss the 200k if I spent it on a Loar. Oh well I can dream can't I ? ;)

[f5loar]

I've not seen the price drop on the decent ones. They are all still at the $200,000 or more. The ones that are under that have issues like, poor condition, refinished back, refinish,Virzi issues, etc. A good Fern still hanging over $100,000. The problem is they are not selling at these prices so maybe a drastic drop in price will occur in the near future. Especially as hard times start to come upon owners who have little investment in their Loars. They can afford to take a hit during hard times. I've seen hard luck cases take 10 cents on the $1 during past recessions. That being the case I am willing to offer anyone $20,000 for any all original signed '22,'23 or '24 Loar F5.

[f5loar]

what no takers yet? Okay I'll go $25,000. Call me :))

[Tighthead]

I suppose at some point people joking about throwing 25 grand around like it's nothing will cease to be amusing as we look at some of the worst unemployment numbers in a generation...but I'm sure you could care less..

[woodwizard]

what no takers yet? Okay I'll go $25,000. Call me :))

I'll go $26,000 :grin:

[f5loar]

Your remark might make some logical sense to some but inthe real world there are those that will always have and those that will never have and then then there are those inbetween who seem to just get buy. Offering to help someone who 30 years ago paid $6000 or less for a mandolin that could sell it today while he is unemployed and in need of quick cash for $25,000 sounds like a nice way to help not hurt.
He is still making a healthy return on his investment just not what he expected to make.
If you got an internet connection today and are on line talking here you ain't hurting too bad so I don't think I offended anyone here at the cafe. And if you look at what is going on today with banks buying other banks before they go under for 10 cents on the dollar what's the difference?

[bootinz]

Tighthead, I think everyone cares about the current economic situation and no one (hopefully) could be heartless enough to wish financial ruin on anyone.

[Spruce]

The problem is they are not selling at these prices so maybe a drastic drop in price will occur in the near future.

Here's a quote of mine I dug up from the CoMando Archives from Saturday, January 5th, 2002:

"Oh, and regarding Loar prices, IMHO they are way undervalued, only because, like fine violins and paintings, anyone who can afford 65K can usually
afford 250K, which is where they are heading..."

I don't know if you'll get your 25K Loar, but I'll bet you'll see 65K buy you a nice one within the next five years...
We'll see.... :popcorn:

[mandopete]

I don't know if you'll get your 25K Loar, but I'll bet you'll see 65K buy you a nice one within the next five years...
We'll see....

Really? My impression, at least from a collector point-of-view, is that these are people with extra cash (read rich) and that eventhough many of us are challenged with hard times. these folks are not affected in the same way.

And if the economy recovers, as I expect it will, we will be right back here saying..."remember the good old days when you could buy a nice Loar for only $250K?"

[f5loar]

Seems as those the 2002 prediction came true as several Loars have changed hands at the $250,000 mark recently. Want anymore predictions?
Long before they reach back to the $65,000 price they will be snatched up by dealers/collectors and put away until the market comes back and then sold again. That's why I knew my low 10 cents on the dollar offer would not fly. But hey I'm still interested at that price. Remember I said it had to be all original. And right those that have it now still have it. Ask Oprah if she has had to "cut back" and sell one of her dozen million dollar homes or lay off the staff that keeps them up. Maybe she laid off her limo driver and is paying Gale to drive her around in Gale's Bentley. Oprah ain't hurting now and won't after the man she backed as President gets through raising her taxes.
Who was it that said "Oprah ain't rich. The guy that signs Oprah's check is rich." So there are many levels of the term "rich" but the problem here is Oprah and others like her or not buying Loars at any price. But Steven Segal, that's another story. He would when the price gets right. Even collectors have a "right" price for what they want.

[mandolooter]

Ok my last offer....FREE Loar storage! Safe and secure and it'll even get played daily!

[Scott Tichenor]

I don't know if you'll get your 25K Loar, but I'll bet you'll see 65K buy you a nice one within the next five years...
We'll see.... :popcorn:

I never intend on owning a Loar, although I'd love to, but here's my prediction: pigs will fly before a decent $200K Loar gets sold for $65K.

[kudzugypsy]

i dont think Loars will start moving again until the prices get to around $125-150K, which is IMO, where they should be historically - they appreciated too much, too fast and people are asking questions like the original post. the vast majority of Loar owners I know are NOT rich people like everyone assumes, and financed their Loars the same way...they SOLD stuff (other instruments, stocks, real estate, cars, boats, etc) and got a loan, and in these economic conditions, you cant sell, and you cant borrow - so the Loars stay listed for longer and longer periods - some of these Loars have been on the market for 6+ months at 2007 prices...and they wont be moving to new owners any time soon is my guess.
The "well-off" people that were buying Loars were looking for APPRECIATION, people with money dont invest in $250k instruments unless they are fairly sure they can get $300K for them in the future, and that was the line of thinking for the last 10 years.

[mrmando]

The "well-off" people that were buying Loars were looking for APPRECIATION
Loar owners of the world: I appreciate you!

There now.

[Kevin Briggs]

I'm surprised nobody got into the practicaility of the situation.

If I had a Loar I could get $200,000 for, it seems a not bad idea to sell that, spend $25,000 on a modern classic/future cash cow, use an undisclosed amount to pay off some debt, and save the rest for my kids.

I know, I know. That makes too much sense.

[woodwizard]

I never intend on owning a Loar, although I'd love to, but here's my prediction: pigs will fly before a decent $200K Loar gets sold for $65K.

I'm afraid that you hit the nail on the head there. I'd love to own one too but I know I never will. Even 65K would be a stretch .... I don't think my wife would understand this kind of investment no matter how good I explained it to her.

[mandroid]

why sell the '23 ? maybe House equity is in 'the loo' [WC]
and cash is needed, so 2nd mortgage is out of the plan..

[Darryl Wolfe]

I think if the economy stabilizes and turns around some (not alot) They will continue to sell at near where they are. I do not ever remember the price coming down, but $175K-$200K is more realistic. I mean heck, I backed out of spending $5K to have my rotted front door and sidelights replaced the other day until after the first of the year when the economic direction will be clearer

[Spruce]

I never intend on owning a Loar, although I'd love to, but here's my prediction: pigs will fly before a decent $200K Loar gets sold for $65K.


:popcorn:

And 1959/60 Les Pauls, too.... ;)

[Links]

I never intend on owning a Loar, although I'd love to, but here's my prediction: pigs will fly before a decent $200K Loar gets sold for $65K.

The only thing that makes it a $200,000 Loar is the fact that someone is willing to pay that for it. Right now we are not sure that they are not $150,000 Loars - soon to be $125,000 Loars - soon to be $100,000 Loars. I've said this a number of times, but when "collectibles" or anything else is going down, people with cash that want them, are perfectly content to sit on the sideline and let them continue to fall.

It reminds me of a "Dutch Auction" where the first price is exhorbitantly high and the auctioneer continues to drop the price until someone pulls the trigger and bids. The one and only bidder is the winner!

[mandroid]

'Dutch Auction' still works on perishables , such as cut flowers, as they do have less value as they lose freshness.

Cut Flower auction takes place right near the AMS Airport , as I recall.. shipped from there ..

[danb]

The only thing that makes it a $200,000 Loar is the fact that someone is willing to pay that for it. Right now we are not sure that they are not $150,000 Loars - soon to be $125,000 Loars - soon to be $100,000 Loars.

Nah, there are too many people who would buy them well before they dropped below that point. Through the archive, I'm really only in touch with a small subset of the scene, but I can tell you there are plenty of folks out there that would love to get their hands on a good one. The ones that have sold most publically have been the super-duper pristine ones, though there are many examples that trade well below the radar of the cafe or dealer inventory web sites.

What makes them valuable:
- Bill Monroe played one, and invented the fusion of music that appeals to a huge number of modern-day players
- there are TENS OF THOUSANDS of F5 copies, and the Loars are the originals
- they sound fantastic
- there are only a few hundred of them
- there is a very public and widely-known appreciation of them among players
- there is a clear set of rules to document and authenticate them that leads to greater buyer confidence

From what I've seen, folks who will invest in such a piece will "just hold them" during a down market.

[Spruce]

What makes them valuable:

- Bill Monroe played one, and invented the fusion of music that appeals to a huge number of modern-day players
- there are TENS OF THOUSANDS of F5 copies, and the Loars are the originals
- they sound fantastic
- there are only a few hundred of them
- there is a very public and widely-known appreciation of them among players
- there is a clear set of rules to document and authenticate them that leads to greater buyer confidence

And.....

The blah blah blah on forums such as these.... ;)

Why is it that the upward surge of Loar prices stalled at 250K well before the "economic meltdown"??

There were quite a few folks (myself included, although I don't know what-the-hell I'm talking about) who cited this figure back when they were going for 25K (although the earliest I was able to find was during the forementioned 65K period.)

It's a nebulous figure, just like $5 million is a nebulous figure for a Strad, and 250K for a '59 Les Paul.

So whose to say that the new figure being bandied about (say 125K) won't become the new standard??

The downward slide happened with 50's Fender Strats back in the 80's after the Japanese economic woes, as it happened with a lots of collectables over the years....

So-ooo, don't underestimate--especially in this internet age--the power of discussions on forums such as these to determine value.... :mandosmiley:

[f5loar]

And you get to pick them while you are "holding" on to them too! Gone are the days of a druged out grandson bringing his grandfather's Loar into a local pawn shop and getting $500 and then the pawn shop sells it for $1000 to a well known music dealer. The internet, antiques roadshow and the archives at the cafe have put a stop to that. The few still left to find "undiscovered" seem to go through private sales or well known dealers at market or near market prices. And I will say it again that most of the ones for sale today have "issues" and high end collectors don't want "issues" in their collections.
The prices are low on these "issue" Loars but not low enough for the average picker to invest in that kind of money when you can find a really good handmade picker for less than $10,000 or even a newer Gibson Fern/F5L. So Dan is right, there are buyers for the right Loar at the right market price.

[Links]

'Dutch Auction' still works on perishables , such as cut flowers, as they do have less value as they lose freshness.

Cut Flower auction takes place right near the AMS Airport , as I recall.. shipped from there ..

Heck Mandroid - Dutch auctions work on anything - not just perishibles or other things that go down in value as they "age". But you do have a good point. Whose to say that the value of a Loar does not continue to go down as it is being shopped around or "hawked" to everybody and their brother.

I agree with Tom about "Loars with issues". The pure collectors do not want issues and are normally willing to pay for a near flawless example. However, during times like these, people that can afford high priced items are going to sit back and watch for a while, as they know that sooner or later someone is going to need to sell. If they can afford 250K now, they can sure afford to wait six months or a year and pay 250K then. The person that needs to sell it may not be able to wait!