Countdown to 500,000

[Jonathan Peck]

I'm offering up a free Wegen pick to whoever makes the 500,00th post

[Steve Davis]

How can you tell?

[mandroid]

http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif + 1 http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

[Mark Walker]

How can you tell?
Clicking on the Message Board link from the home page - and which displays all the Message Board Topics - has all the statistics (including number of posts, about 494,882 when I started this one) toward the bottom.

Let the countdown continue! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mandosmiley.gif

[mrmando]

Do I get to choose which Wegen pick? See, 'cause I only like the Gypsy Jazz ones.

[mrmando]

Thus far the rate is 0.56 posts per minute, meaning we'll hit 500K in another eight days or so.

But I assume the rate goes down during evening hours. I'll have better numbers tomorrow.

[Mark Walker]

Martin - are you a statistician by chance? ? ? #http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

Either that, or you've got too much time on your hands! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[Daniel Wheeler]

Just keep track of the average posts in 24 hours and find the diff between where we are at that time and the magic number then divide the diff by 24

[JEStanek]

Mark, I believe there is a 15% probability that Martin is a statistician, with a standard deviation of ± x.

http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

I still don't know how we can identify the 500,000 poster. With my new responsibilities I reckon I can't enter into the give a mando away raffles held here any more but on the plus side, given the frequency I post, there's a pretty good chance there's a Wegen pick in my future! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

Jamie

[NoNickel]

This one?

[NoNickel]

How about this one?

[NoNickel]

I give up.

ADD survivor.

[Daniel Wheeler]

Ya wouldn't it be kinda hard to tell who it is. What if 3 or 4 people post at the same time in different sections? Not to be a buzzkill http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif. Just a thought that we must formulate a plan before this monumental occasion.

[mrmando]

testing

[mrmando]

Each post has a unique, sequential ID. My "testing" post above is 626181; hover over "Report this post to a moderator" and you'll see a string of values that ends with p=626181.

That post is also number 495027 according to the counter on the forum homepage (I checked immediately after posting it). 626181 - 495027 = 131154. So if we accept 131154 as the differential between the post ID and its counter value on the homepage, it follows that the winning post will have an ID of 631154. That's the best way for Jonathan to know who gets the pick. Of course, it wouldn't hurt for the winner to take a screenshot of the homepage with the magic number 500000 on it and send it to Jonathan, along with a description of which post in which thread the winner believes is the 500,000th post.

I don't know why there is a differential ... unless perhaps 131154 was the number of posts from the old board and Scott carried it over to this one.

[Daniel Wheeler]

Ahh I can see none of that on my phone which is what I post from half the time when I'm bored http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[mrmando]

testing again

[mrmando]

Well, that last Testing post has an ID of 629644, but is number 498441 on the home page. The differential is 131203, not 131154 -- which means the differential is a moving target. It'll be harder to spot the winning post, which will probably hit sometime on Saturday.

Perhaps the differential represents the number of posts that have been deleted. That would mean 1 of every 5 posts is deleted, roughly. Does that surprise anyone?

CLARIFICATION: The above question was not meant to suggest anything about the way the board is moderated. I was thinking only of how often people might delete their own posts, not how often posts might be deleted for them. After further consideration I could show you some more numbers to suggest that the present rate of deletion is actually much, much less than 1 in 5 -- and any casual, anecdotal observation would point to the same conclusion. I am informed by a moderator that the large differential is due to technical issues that arose in the early days of the board.

[kirkw101]

if we could only use all this knowledge for good instead of evil..........
you guys can always make me smile.



kirk

[UnityGain]

Perhaps the differential represents the number of posts that have been deleted. That would mean 1 of every 5 posts is deleted, roughly. Does that surprise anyone?
I'm going to wager a guess that edited posts come up with a new ID number. 1 in 5 posts getting edited sounds pretty likely...

(and now we are one closer)

edit: and I'm right?

edit edit: and I'm wrong...

[mandolinny]

Did I win?http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif ~~grins~~

[Daniel Wheeler]

Hmmmm

[makoto]

I would frame that Wegen pick with a print out of the post and hang it in a prominent place of honor!

[mandolinny]

Did I win? ~~~evil grin~~~

[irokcj5]

Are we there yet??? :P

[Mattman]

I'll bite.

[mandolinny]

Biting is not nice!!!! Dig I win? ~~~snickers~~~ hehehe!!!

[Mattman]

We're not there yet....I like winning things.

[JeffD]

498609

[irokcj5]

Don't ya'll have to go to bed now?http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[Brady Smith]

Yes go to bed...there still won't be a winner when you wake up. I would like to submit this as post 500,000 in advance, thanks.

[Daniel Wheeler]

Mic check

[Brady Smith]

It's workin! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[Andrew Faltesek]

499198...closing in!

[Andrew Faltesek]

OK, how many of you are at the main message board, refreshing the page? http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[James P]

(Reporting for duty.)

Congratulations to the Mandolin Cafe on attaining this monumentalous millstone! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Great peeps, great place!

[Andrew Faltesek]

Buff up that pick, Jonathan...We're closin' in!

[mandolinny]

Did I win? ~~~sighs~~~ http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[Mattman]

I WON!!! YEAH! (did it work?)

[mrmando]

The real 500,000th post occurred right around midnight on March 13 last year. The one we're looking for here will probably happen this weekend.

[Mattman]

Is this it?

[TeleMark]

I just wanted to post in this thread.

[Jonathan Peck]

364 to go

[B. T. Walker]

Don't wait too long, or you'll miss it.

[JeffD]

The #real 500,000th post occurred right around midnight on March 13 last year. #
Splain me.

The odometer was reset?

[JeffD]

Any minute now. Up to 499949

[jbrwky]

Are we there yet?

[mandolinny]

~~~stomps foot~~~ Did I win yet?http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[Ray Neuman]

maybe a one handed mando picker can win....smile

[Keith Newell]

Did I win?
Keith

[jbrwky]

What's even more amazing to me is that we're over 12,000 registered members. At number 124 I am humbled.

[mrmando]

The real 500,000th post occurred right around midnight on March 13 last year.
Splain me.

The odometer was reset?
Yep, see earlier posts about the differential between individual post IDs and the front-page counter.

An earlier version of the board outgrew its server capacity and a whole buncha posts were lost, unfortunately.

I haven't found the exact post with an ID of 500000, but I found a few on either side of it.

[danb]

Well lookee here, I cheated and used inside information to hit the half million mark. Now back to your regularly scheduled chatter...

[RichieK]

Dan would know!

[jbrwky]

Dang it Dan, I was looking at the front counter. Is it time delayed? Insider info strikes again. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[danb]

Dang it Dan, I was looking at the front counter. Is it time delayed? Insider info strikes again. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif
yeah, unfortunately http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif This board has *cough* a couple bugs


We're now here:
<table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td>Code Sample </td></tr><tr><td id="CODE">
+----------+
&#124; count&#40;*&#41; &#124;
+----------+
&#124; 500003 &#124;
+----------+
1 row in set &#40;0.00 sec&#41;
[/QUOTE]

[mrmando]

Ah, how could mere mortals hope to compete?

[jimbob]

Whenever it happens or happened, it's a lot of traffic and a good site for mandolin folks. I certainly appreciate it. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mandosmiley.gif

[jbrwky]

OK Dan, you owe me then. You have to hook up with me somewhere and play Midnight On the Water together. This will be a punishment for you. http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[mrmando]

Frontpage counter goes to 500K with this post.

[Chris Biorkman]

I win.

[mrmando]

Or maybe not.

[Scott Tichenor]

We have a winner. This was not announced ahead of time because we didn't want to overwhelm the server. It appears Dan Beimborn is the winner of the '24 Loar given to the 500,000th post. Congratulations, Dan!

Now--and my sympathy is out to those of you not employed by an institution that observes President's Day--back to my leisure.

[jimbob]

I'd had it if the phone didn't ring.... http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/coffee.gif

[mrmando]

Wow! What'll you give away for the millionth post?

[danb]

2 free tickets to something that happens outdoors? http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[jbrwky]

Double Drat! I am at work Scott but ....well you know. And Dan did I mention ... Drat! and confound you, sir!

[MikeEdgerton]

Now--and my sympathy is out to those of you not employed by an institution that observes President's Day--back to my leisure.
Welcome to my world http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[John Flynn]

It just dawned on me that I've made 1.24% of all those posts. I really should spend more time practicing! http://www.mandolincafe.net/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[Mattman]

Am I late? Awwwww.

[Andrew Faltesek]

I can't believe it...I never had a chance! Some dodo at another plant spent waaay too much time on the internet instead of doing his job; so all the operators got spanked and the internet was taken away!

Then I got home and my children had both computers tied up doing "homework" which looked suprisingly like bejeweled, call of duty 4, and silent hunter 3!

Now I'm back at work and the internet is back on! Too late!

[Karen]

Hey... no fair. #We wanted to win. #Ancient members will recall all we have ever won was a pack of hot dogs back in '80. #Any mandos worth thinking about Dan?
Us (now in Lawrence)
R&K

[Dan Adams]

I remember when I was trying to count down to the 10,000 memeber of the Cafe. Missed by one! Hope you've had better luck guessing number 500,000. Dan